First of all, an apology to my many foreign readers for my recent habit of returning to British politics - again - and again! But please understand that since 'that woman' departed, next to knitting and stamp collecting, there has been nothing more eye-stabbingly tedious than our Westminster politics. Today it is riveting. It makes chaos theory look easy.
Dan Hodges in The Telegraph, a commentator with a personal history inside the Labour party and a shrewd observer of the political scene on the Left, insists that whilst 'Dave' is obviously in difficulties after the by-election results, the man who is right up shit creek without not only a paddle but a boat, as well, is Ed Miliband:
“Happy birthday!”, Nigel Farage cheekily said to David Cameron via Sky News. It was not a happy birthday. It was a terrible result for the Tories, right at the bottom end of their expectations.
But it was an even worse result for Labour. In fact, it was a catastrophe. [My emphasis]
The Tories knew Clacton was coming. They had priced defeat in. No one on Labour’s side saw Heywood coming. There had been whispers circulating Labour conference that the party had a problem in the seat. But over the past fortnight the whispers had ceased. Opinion polls gave Labour a 20-point lead. Even in the minutes after the polls closed Labour officials were confidently briefing that victory would be theirs by a comfortable margin. In the end they came within a whisker of losing.
The insupperable problem for Miliband is that having set the rudder to automatic on course towards his 35% core vote he now has absolutely no room for manouvre. He has ruled out both a referendum and a renegotiation with Europe and there is, therefor, nothing in his programme for those who are sick of East European immigration which, in the main, are the plebs who might normally vote Labour but are now scared of losing their jobs. Cameron, by contrast, has plenty of sea room to his Right and as I have said elsewhere he is likely to alter course in that direction. I would add that if he doesn't he would simply prove that not only does he fail to understand the mood of the British people but he underestimates the ruthlessness of his own party. There is a meeting due soon of the parliamentary Conservative party and I suspect that if anything less than some good red meat is not tossed to them, Dave could be the red meat they will devour!
In another article, Dan Hodges, in effect, paraphrases the old, TV advertising slogan, 'Calm down, dear, it's only an election'!
But why would the polls move? The Tory base is locked in. It can basically only go one way, and that’s up, but that rise depends on attracting back Ukip switchers (plus a few middle-class Labour voters who will quietly shift allegiance over the mansion tax). Labour still has further to fall (potentially quite a long way to fall), but again that’s primarily due to the Lib Dems reluctantly returning to the fold.
And what do those Lib Dem and Ukip defectors have in common? They are essentially protest voters. The Lib Dems are angry at Nick Clegg’s betrayal. The Kippers are angry at everything. And if you protest, you protest. You send tweets, you post comments, you tell your mates in the pub, “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take it any more”. And so when the nice lady from MORI suddenly walks up to you with her clipboard, you don’t say “Look, I’m saying I’ll vote Ukip, but I’m only kidding. I just need to get it off my chest. You won’t tell anyone will you?” You tell her you’re Ukip till you die.
I would also add that if you are a protester then you will continue to protest inside the polling booth during an irrelevent European or by-election poll. But voting for the people who will rule over you for the next five years is a very different cup of tea:
In previous elections the polls have been distorted by the “Quiet Tory” phenomenon. I suspect this election is going to be distorted by the “Loud Kipper” phenomenon. The polls will break late. They will shift, but they will not shift allegiance right until the final moment. Why would they? Why would someone angry with David Cameron, but fearful of Ed Miliband, let Cameron off the hook early?
In fact, I suspect that there are many people who will be voting Tory and Lib Dem on 7 May who currently aren’t even aware themselves that they’ll be voting Tory or Lib Dem on 7 May. The most important demographic in the forthcoming election will not the C1s or C2s but the PAs, the Paul the Apostle voters who will experience a polling-booth conversion.
I tend to go along with Hodges on this but there is one huge 'known unknown' looming over the horizon about which Cameron can do nothing - except pray that it will hold off until after may 2015. That is, a European economic implosion possibly followed by a global stock market plunge. Both, in my humble opinion, are more than likely in which case all electoral bets are off.
