Well, by all accounts, the lady is not for too much turning although she will require her, shall we say, less than athletic body(politic) to demonstrate some subtlety and sinuousness as she attempts to put together a workable coalition. The reports from the experts, as usual, seem to be contradictory but we, 'just over here', need only concern ourselves with what effect the German coalition will have on matters European. To my less than knowledgeable eyes it is obvious that whatever else she does she will not allow the European Union to break up, or even allow itself to be weakened by break-aways. Her people might not like paying for all the Meds but it is obvious to her and the rest of the political class that German commerce absolutely depends on a weak euro. However, she will be equally reluctant to hand over yet more powers to a European supra-state over which Germany will be but one voice amongst many. It is worth reminding ourselves that all - repeat all - of her likely coalition partners are fervently pro-European.
As John Redwood, a shrewd observer, points out over two posts, here, and here, Dave can probably expect to receive some support from Madame Merkel as he attempts to negotiate a looser partnership with Brussels because Britain is a major buyer of German products and any breach would hit her own industries. However, she still has to face, and solve, the banking crisis inside the euro zone which has definitely not gone away. Any sort of pan-European super-bank will be welcomed by Brussels but not in Berlin - unless it is controlled by Frankfurt bankers!
We, of course, must hope that the Euro-fanatics, with whom Madame Merkel will be forced into a marriage of convenience, will exert their utmost pressure in favour of strengthening European institutions. The more they pile it on, the more likely we will be to dismiss Dave's useless 'renegotiation' when the Brussels hierarchy toss him a few baubles and beads, and the more likey we will be to vote 'OUT' in any new referendum. Bring it on!
