So the ice-bucket has been poured over the three main parties (see my post from yesterday) and Dave, Ed and Nick sit there frozen and soaking and in a state of shock - as well they might, given these results, courtesy of Guido:
Clacton:
Douglas Carswell (UKIP) 21,113 (59.75%)
Giles Watling (Con) 8,709 (24.64%)
Tim Young (Lab) 3,957 (11.20%)
Chris Southall (Green) 688 (1.95%)
Andy Graham (LibDem) 483 (1.37%)
Heywood and Middleton:
Liz McInnes (Lab) 11,633 (40.9%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 11,016 (38.7)
Iain Gartside (Con) 3,496 (12.3%)
Anthony Smith (LibDem) 1,457 (5.1%)
The majority of instant conclusions need to be tempered by careful consideration but there is one double whammy that can be enjoyed without restraint - the virtual obliteration of the 'il-Lib-non-Dems'. In both constituencies they were slaughtered. I bet the 'Kleggeron' can hardly wait to leave the sinking ship and scuttle off to some cushy European job with his Spanish wife - don't think the feeling ain't mutual, Nick, baby!
As for the other two, Ed, I suspect is the happiest - by which I mean that he feels ever so slightly better than suicidal! A majority of 600+ is wafer thin but still just big enough to cover his shrinking manhood if only because a win is a win. But there is a favourable undercurrent in the Heywood result which he and the Labour leadership will wish to swim in and that is the fact that although UKIP took massive bites out of their vote, they in turn took chunks out of the Lib-Dems. That might be enough to save their bacon in enough seats to give them a victory at the general election. The rest of us must also be grateful for that slim win because it keeps Ed as leader of the Labour party and he, single-handed, is the party's biggest vote loser!
I don't suppose Dave is too worried by the results because he's too dim to understand the threat and he seems to surround himself with Old Etonians who are even dimmer! However, if the Tories lose the next by-election in Rochester then perhaps the shock of that will be felt in No. 10. If that happens there may well be a discernible shift to the Right in the Tory party message but with only six months to go to the election that may be far too late - shoulda got up earlier, Dave, baby, and smelled the coffee! Most voters, unlike political nerds like me (and you lot!), tend to drift to a voting conclusion months before voting day. Also, it is worth bearing in mind that a goodly percentage of them quite enjoy making mischief at European elections and by-elections but when it comes to voting for the government of the country, like 'a hanging in the morning, it concentrates the mind wonderfully'!
So, what I'm trying to tell you is that as far as the outcome of the next general election is concerned, er, I haven't a clue!
