Yes, yes, I know, I trot that old saying out pretty regularly but if I can't be a bit of a bore at my age and on my own blog then where and when can I be? Anyway, I repeat the adage because with the sort of luck that sometimes drops on simpletons instead of the usual bird shit, 'Dim Dave' and his stumblebum partner, Georgie Osborne, may, just, be in receipt of a large dollop of good fortune. According to young Master Fraser Nelson at The Coffee House, 'everything's coming up roses' in the British economy. More important is that it is doing so at just about the right time, that is, on the way towards the next election. Here is a diagram showing the consensus of GDP growth from various experts issued by the Treasury:
Month after month, the consensus figure for 2014 growth has risen. The European Commission today fall in behind the consensus of 2.2 per cent. Citi thinks 3 per cent is closer to the mark.
This cheerful news is confirmed by a seperate but very important survey called the services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) which has a long historical record of more or less matching GDP growth exactly, as this diagram shows:
As Nelson points out, with considerable relish, this is truly Bad News for the 'Milipede'. If there is any truth in that old saying that "it's the economy, stoopid" then 'Ed the leader' has a real fight on his hands not helped by the fact that he has to carry 'Ed the Brokers Man' on his back. How many Tory attack ads will feature Ed Balls and his constant hand gesture at Question Time in the Commons indicating that the Tories were 'flat lining' the economy? He knew nothing when he was Chancellor and the economy crashed, the Tories will crow, and he knows nothing now because the economy is rocketing upwards.
Of course, 'many a slip twixt cup and lip' and there are all sorts of potential slips, if not downright catastrophes, possible over the channel, in the middle east and/or even 'over there'. And nor is it plainsailing 'over here' because, again as Nelson reminds us, George is still borrowing like one of those mugs desperate to use pay-day loan sharks. Similarly, the printing presses are still churning out the dosh and if this new Canadian Governor of the Bank of England starts playing the hard man before the election then all bets are off.
However, one thing is now clear beyond any doubt - Ed Miliband is unfit to run a parish council let alone a country. His total ignorance of how a nation's economy actually works is only exceeded by that of his shadow Chancellor. His ill-thought out and opportunistic pronouncements on the sort of interventions his government would make were designed totally for cheap headlines. Perhaps, just perhaps, 'The People' (dread words!) will 'suss' that out in time.
