So, no, I haven't a clue as to how the 21st century is going to work out except that there will be tears before bedtime - there always are! However, you do not require a visit to Specsavers - which I have this afternoon - to see that China is going to be a monumental pain in the arse for at least the next two generations. However, the good news is that it will all be about as far away from us as it can be - although if I was living in Australia or New Zealand my mind would be concentrated wonderfully! (Incidentally, my Antipodean chums, don't think we aren't terribly grateful for your monumental sacrifices on our behalf in the last two world wars but do not rely on us for the third! It's not that we wouldn't want to but simply that we no longer have the wherewithal!)
Grand Strategic strength, of course, is relative. Your own strength needs must be weighed against your potential opponent's. Thus, the USA is the only serious potential counter-weight to China but it needs to be understood that the Uncle Sam is entering old age and is showing those signs of decrepitude that go with it. As their electorate is flooded with 'zillions' of South Americans, and as their economic strength withers under colossal debts, we need to recognize that America is simply not the same country we all remember so fondly.
However, the Chinese, for all their bluff and bluster, have some mighty schisms within their society which once unleashed could prove disastrous. I have mentioned before that as far as I can tell from my skimpy knowledge of Chinese history they have always had a centrifugal force within their borders which, unless the center holds, tends to end with breakaway provinces. It can be summed up thus: Does modern, prosperous Shanghai really need Beijing? Also, they now have a brand new, prosperous, property-owning, middle-class and any threat to that 'feel good factor' will bring down the wrath of the people on the heads of the Party and its 'apparatchiks'. Of course, as we have seen in Russia, this can be diverted by appeals to nationalism and patriotism - electorates are dumb the whole world over - but perhaps only for so long. The Chinese government will pick the low-hanging fruit first, that is, those islands and coral reefs that rightly belong to their immediate neighbours in the South China Sea.
However, poking a sleeping giant, as the Germans did to the USA in two wars, is not very wise. Since WWII Japan has hidden its Samurai sword at the bottom of the cupboard but now, under Chinese pressure they have taken it out and are beginning to give it a polish! No-one, the Chinese least of all, should ever forget the ferocious nature of Japanese militarism once it is awaked. If there is anyone with any brains left in Washington - er, I am available on a consultancy basis! - they should be quietly stuffing Japan, the Philippines, India and every other country bordering the South China Sea with as much military aid as they can - and then stand by to fight a war to the very last Jap!
What about Russia, you ask? 'Fagettaboutit' is my reply! In fact, if the Americans beef up their allies around the South China Sea it might be that China will switch direction and try and take back a few acres of Russian Siberia which they feel belong to them anyway. That should give Vlad something to think about!
More important is what Britain should do about it? Nothing! Nil! Nada! Zero! Happily that is a very easy conclusion to come to because, in reality, there is sweet F.A. we can do anyway except perhaps cheer from the side-lines. We are now, and are likely to remain for some time, powerless, particularly in the sense of being totally unable to project such teeny-weeny power as we do possess. As I mentioned yesterday, I think that even 'Dim Dave' has recognised that reality which is why he is refusing to rule out yet more defence cuts. In the meantime our mostly useless 'Brass' jump up and down squawking for more money, more money, more money without actually indicating what they want to do with it and let's face it, their efforts over the past twenty five years have produced perhaps the most embarrassing farrago in the history of British arms.
So don't give in 'Dave', instead sack at least 3/4 of the useless General Staff and just concentrate on turning this country into as close an approximation of Singapore that you can. Now, do you think you can manage that on your own? I am available should you need me!
