This post might better be titled ‘Lament for an old man’. The plain-as-the-boil-on-the-end-of-your-nose fact is that the world is changing, and of course, it always has but since the industrial revolution the rate of change has accelerated almost beyond human comprehension. In this first fifteen years of the 21st century I really do sense that ‘events, dear boy, events’ are getting away from us – and by “us” I mean our less than glorious leaders. In this post I want to mull this over gently but I will do so – without apology – from a strictly British perspective.
In my extreme youth, Britain was, to paraphrase, ‘an ever fix-ed star’. Not anymore! The dire rumbles of nationalism emanating from Scotland and Wales, and even from the regions of England, cannot be ignored. More knowledgeable commentators than me are already prophesy the break-up of the United Kingdom within the next ten years. Well, so be it even if self-inflicted wounds are always the most dangerous. England existed as a nation-state for centuries and no doubt will do so again – provided we use our intelligence and industry.
Looking further afield, of course, means looking at America, and it is here that I see, or think I see, great changes afoot. The giant is faltering. Perhaps I shouldn’t exaggerate because it has only been in the second half of the 20th century that the USA has dominated the entire globe. During much of the first half, America was a potential giant but a sleeping potential giant. People, and I mean by that the world leaders of that period, totally under-estimated American might, so I am conscious that perhaps I am making the same error now. But I am not measuring the USA in terms of industrial, financial and military might but in that other absolutely crucial area – morale! If you lack the nerve or the will to lift the sword then the size of the sword counts for nothing.
It seems to me that America is becoming like one of those fabled creatures that end up eating themselves! The divisions within the country are becoming wider and deeper and laced with genuine hatred above and beyond the normal cut and thrust of adversarial politics. The obvious chasm across American society is the black/white divide but even if that is somehow eased and pacified then the coming white/brown schism will take over. There are various estimates as to when the whites will cease to be a majority and the Mexicans take over but most reckon within a generation. As I say, American is changing before our eyes and the new generations will look out upon the globe through very different eyes from their predecessors. And all of that means that we, the English, need to remove our old-fashioned glasses and take a long, hard look at this new emerging world.
As I have remarked often before – too often? – there is ‘a new kid on the block’ in the form of a rampant, impatient, ambitious and potentially dangerous China. There is no doubt that probably sooner rather than later the USA and China will lock horns. Actually, it might be later if America under a government of very different ethnicity decides that it will simply pull back and concentrate solely on ‘Greater America’, that is, the whole, mainly Spanish-speaking, continent from Alaska to Cape Horn, in other words, a sort of ‘Greater Fortress America’. That, of course, would leave China room to rampage at will.
I am not saying that is how things will be, only that it is a possible outcome. However, there are other possibilities which I will lay out in another post.
