First of all, an apology to my regulars. I should have warned you that visitors to Chateau Duff would slow my rate of posting this weekend but in fact they brought it to a complete halt. Not that there is anything much to blog about given that from a political viewpoint we are currently in a state of suspended animation. 'Over there' the result of the most important election in my lifetime will not be known until Wednesday, and 'over here' the EU budget meeting will not take place until the 22nd of this month. I have already bored on written about the American election but the EU meeting could? might? maybe? cause a major upheaval in British politics.
Ian Martin in The Telegraph suggests that the coming EU imbroglio could test the coalition government to destruction, not just because of its own difficulties but because it is combined with other fundamental disagreements such as Trident renewal and so-called 'Green Energy'. ‘Dave’ now knows without any doubts that his own party is prepared to revolt against him if he fails to push through Tory policies. He cannot afford to become known as a Tory prime minister utterly dependent on the good favour of the Lib-Dems because that would lead an increasingly irritated public to dismiss him with the contempt he deserves at the first opportunity. He might be, as we all now know, a bit on the dim side but even he must be able to see the catastrophe of being tagged as a Lib-Dem muppet with Nick Clegg’s hand up the back of his suit.
However, ‘Cleggie’, too, is feeling the squeeze of being between a rock and a hard place. If ‘Dave’ plays a hard hand at the EU budget meeting tossing out vetoes left, right and center and comes back to cheers from his party in parliament, will ‘Cleggie’ and his MPs, most of whom would be obliterated in the next election, have what it takes to walk away from the coalition and vote down the Tory government? In my not very expert opinion, I think they might well walk away away from the coalition but then remain steadfastly neutral in major votes in order to show their disapproval but not to the extent of forcing an election by bringing down the Tories.
There cannot be much doubt that relations between us and Europe are coming to a head. The ‘colleagues’ are determined on a new and closer integration which no British government could accede to given the current state of British public opinion. From the European view, their inherent dislike of Britain will be more than satisfied if we eventually decide to leave. Roll on, say I!
