They (yes, that mysterious 'they' who are never quite defined) say that generals always prepare for the last war that was fought. Possibly so, but admirals are similarly guilty and I can't help wondering if the admirals running the Chinese navy are making the same mistake. Recent news reports indicate that they are already preparing to launch a second aircraft carrier to re-enforce their South China Sea policy. Is this wise, I wonder?
Herewith a brief history of the modern devel0pments in naval strategy. At the turn of 19th into the 20th centuries with steel ships driven by coal-fired engines and the problems of tide and wind virtually banished, there were huge arguments as to what type of fighting ship was most useful. Some favoured big ships carrying a variety of weaponry from long-range guns to short and medium range weapons to deal with fast small ships that could dash into the 'dead ground' beneath the big guns. Others, the French in particular, favoured these fast, small ships able to attack with the new deadly weapon - the torpedo. All this came to an abrupt end when Lord Fisher took over the Admiralty and after slamming his fist on the table a few times insisted that what was needed were BIG battleships with BIG guns and BIG armor. Thus, the era of the Dreadnoughts began.
During WWI, the first examples of naval airpower were seen and after the war that novel aspect of naval strategy was taken up with varying degrees of enthusiasm by the great powers. Even so, most were reluctant to part from their big battleships and it took the ultra-violent example of Midway during WWII to convinve the admirals that the battleship era was over and the aircraft carrier was the new queen on the naval chess board. This idea persists to this day which is why, under 'Dim Dave's less than inspiring leadership, you and I are paying through our bleeding noses (£6 billion +) to build two new aircraft carriers.
Now it is true that were we to go to war with 'Bongo-Bongo-Land' (to quote a phrase!), a couple of aircraft carriers would be useful. But just how useful would they be against a sophisticated enemy with all the latest electronic gadgetry that might be deployed in space, in the air or under-water? In 1916, poised for victory, Lord Jellicoe refused to unleash his magnificent fleet of super-Dreadnoughts because he knew that a few penny-ha'penny mines could rip the guts out them. Similarly, I wonder if Admiral 'Chu Chin Chow' has worked out how good his aircraft carriers are going to be against a swarm of drones coming at him from all directions including under-water?
So, what's the answer to this strategic conundrum? I dunno, I'm just a corporal!
