The acerbic Dr. North of EU Referendum pulls on his pit boots and proceeds to give Daniel Hannan a kicking. Well, nothing new about that although it seems a pity to me that two such arch-Eurosceptics can't seem able even to agree what day of the week it is! The EU was, is and always will be, a complicated subject not least because those in charge want it so in order to discourage critics like me who do not understand the finer points from investigating too far. In so far as I can follow Dr. North's argument he doubts the practicalities of Cameron's announcement to the effect that he will force through by means of a Parliament Act a law that will come into force in 2015 and which will command whoever is in government to announce the date of the referendum before the end of 2016, and hold it before the end of 2017. Hannan, on the other hand, has taken Cameron's words at face value and delights in the fact that it will force Labour and Lib-Dems to decide whether or not they trust the people! However, Dr. North maintains that it is all smoke and mirrors because the Brussels hierarchy have already announced their intention to hold a treaty revision exercise culminating in 2018 which means they will have little or no time to discuss Cameron's efforts to re-draw the existing Anglo-European treaty.
But I wonder whether any of this will ever come to pass because, as Jeremy Warner reminds us in The Telegraph, "events, dear boy, events" may well overtake intentions. He tells us quite bluntly that Europe is in denial. As Britain and America begin to take the first steps towards economic recovery, Europe (or to be precise, the euro-zone) remains mired in stagnation. Although they would not admit it, this suits the Germans quite well because their industry and commerce continues to thrive on a globally weak euro currency. Recent efforts to install a pan-European bank agreement have been castrated by the Germans who are determined that under no circumstances do they intend to become underwriters of 'Med country' debt!
There are only two solutions to Europe's woes. Either they form a proper union with a central government and treasury, or, they break up into seperate 'northern' and 'Med' zones. Germany wants neither solution. Germany simply wants more of the same in which a dysfunctional EU keeps the euro currency cheap and thus big export profits for Mercedes-Benz and their ilk. They simply do not care if it brings down impoverished misery on Greeks, Spaniards - or even the French! I know that I (and others more expert than me) have long forecast a shambolic breakdown in the EU and it still hasn't happened. As Jeremy Warner puts it:
Europe needs monetary stimulus but thanks to a dysfunctional single currency cannot have it; it needs labor market reform, but outside Germany and its satellites, is unwilling to enact it; and it needs burden-sharing, but its nations are still too fiscally sovereign to contemplate it. European leaders naively seem to assume that recovery is just around the corner. The truth is that they have made themselves hostage to the storm even as America and Britain navigate their way out.
So, it may well be that "the storm" will make Cameron's brave boast of holding a referendum totally redundant. I want a collapse to happen but I do not suppose for a second that it will be anything other than catastrophic for Britain. We do far too much trade with Europe not to be severely hurt by collateral damage in the event of a Euro-implosion.
