Actually, the correct quotation is Matthew 7.20: "Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them" but knowing the low, coarse minds of many of the regulars here I was trying to avoid the usual jokes about "fruits"! Anyway, in this case I am actually referring to Chinese 'fruits', or to be precise, the first signs of real action by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) following their recent plenary meeting, prior to which, everyone and his unlce was trying to guess what they would do but nobody knew for certain. Well, now we have the first concrete shift in public policy, henceforth the restrictions of the 'one child only' policy are to be carefully lifted. This does not indicate any softening in the hearts of those who occupy the ruling seats in the CCP but merely their recognition of some seriously worrying statistics for the future. (As a side-thought, I suppose that one advantage dictatorships have over democracies is that the ruling elite are in power long enough to have time to think long-term, so unlike 'Dim Dave' and his ilk who can think no further ahead than tomorrow's headlines!)
Here, via the WSJ, is the problem facing the CCP as it faces the future:
China's working-age population—those ages 15 to 64—is drastically shrinking: From 2010 to 2030, China's labor force is expected to lose 67 million workers—more than the entire population of France—according to United Nations projections.
Over that period, the elderly population is projected to soar, from 110 million in 2010 to 210 million in 2030, and by 2050 will account for a quarter of the population, according to U.N. data.
China's population, the world's largest, rose to 1.34 billion in 2010, according to census data. It had been projected to peak at around 1.4 billion in 10 years but decline for the next 30, said Mr. Wang.
Please read the whole fascinating article for more detail but in the meantime I was struck by the implications for this country. Here, too, as I understand it, under no compulsion from the government, the indigident population is failing to do its, er, 'duty' regularly on a Saturday night, perhaps due to a superfluity of ale, or, perhaps because modern ladies are too concerned about their figures; whatever, the end reult is a gradual reduction in reproduction rates across western Europe. Given that, perhaps our immigration policy is no bad thing. According to various 'scare' stories in the media our population is increasing rapidly as eastern Europe, so to speak, flows across to western Europe. Well, say I, bring 'em on but just make sure the buggers pay their taxes in order to keep us pensioners in the style to which we feel we are entitled!
