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Bitcoin could be nearing its bottom.
The volatility in bitcoin has declined significantly in the last couple of weeks which could be a sign that the rout is coming to an end. We had bounces off the two support levels I mentioned in my last post, with a low just below $6,000. I suspect that level could be retested soon, but I am optimistic that it will hold. After possible consolidation, we should then see a rebound start.
Well, my estimate of the size of the drop in the FTSE-100 was a bit on the low side, to say the least! I think we could be nearing the bottom here too though. The fall in the index has roughly conformed to a pattern I have seen several times, where there is a shelf about half way down, followed by two spikes back to the 20-day moving average (the green line) after lower lows. The chart shows that we are currently nearing the top of the second spike, so I am looking for a further dip back to around 6,800 after which the bounce-back should begin.
I have noticed some commentators arguing that this bull market is getting rather long in the tooth, and that the current dip could be the start of a major crash, but I don't agree. The UK stock market crashed in the early 1970's, bottoming out at the end of 1974 and didn't peak until October 1987, nearly 13 years later. The next crash after that didn't start until the beginning of 2000, over 12 years later. The current bull run is only 9 years old so it could easily be another three years before it peaks.
