I will not repeat my 'boring-snoring' mantra concerning the importance of timing in both sex and drumming and everything else - oh, I just did! - but I do have a strong feeling that next year could be a pivotal time in all sorts of areas. As always, look to the money first! Liam Halligan in The Telegraph reminds us that the euro is still tottering on the edge of the cliff as the Greek parliament fails for the second time to agree on the appointment of a new president. They have one more chance and if it fails then an election will be called which is likely to see the extreme Left Syriza party brought into power. Like all Lefties everywhere, including those based in the posher parts of north London, they are promising everyone everything including higher wages and higher pensions. In addition, they will be telling ‘Juncker the Drunker’ he can stuff his EU (ie, German) austerity measures, which were insisted on prior to two huge loans given to the Greeks, where the sun don’t shine! Cue: massive destabilisation of the euro probably followed by an Italian collapse and the Spanish and Portuguese making for the exits!
Meanwhile, back at the Brit ranch we have an election due in May which has all the characteristics of a ‘Carry On’ film. Nobody has a clue how it will turn out except that everyone seems to agree that far from achieving a strong government we will end up with a cobbled together mish-mash barely capable of organising a piss-up in a brewery! Stand by for another election in the Autumn.
Still, it’s an ill-wind that fails to freeze Vlad’s nipples in one of his bare-chested poses and there is no doubt that he and poor old Mother Russia are going to face immense difficulties next year. The Saudis seem determined to drive all other forms of oil and gas production out of business by keeping the price as low down the oil well as possible! Of course, their principal target is the American fracking business and whilst a low price might do for some of them, I read reports that others are capable of staying the course. Russia, on the other hand, is stuffed because its ‘wealth’ is almost entirely based on hugely expensive oil and gas squeezed at huge expense from some of the most inhospitable regions of Russia – than which, etc, etc!
Meanwhile, the ‘Cousins’ give every ‘appearance’ of prospering mightily, but let me tell you what every financial expert is saying if you bother to read them – the American stock market is grossly – and I do mean GROSSLY – over-priced, puffed up as it has been, by criminally lax money printing, plus, and in the long term even more dangerous, eye-watering amounts of national borrowing. Incidentally, our stock market is over-priced but of course the FTSE 100 does not reflect the British economy because it is an international index. Even so, a collapse in Europe and a collapse in America will likely sweep away any ‘makeshift and mend’ government we end up with in May.
Mr. Halligan, an expert I normally admire, lets me down by admitting that when it comes to our relationship with Europe “I’m a ‘negotiate then decide’ man. I’ll vote to stay in the EU, but only if we negotiate genuine change in an organisation that has become grotesquely and dangerously over-mighty.” Too much Christmas sherry, Mr. Halligan! The swivel-eyed fanatics in Brussels will never give a millimetre, let alone an inch when it comes to their Great Project. The only approach is for us to walk and then negotiate whatever new agreements are needed – and remember, the Europeans need us slightly more than we need them because we pay in oodles of boodle, plus, they sell more to us than we sell to them!
So, here’s to 2015 – or ‘interesting times’, as I prefer to think of it!
