Occasionally readers send me in their thoughts on various subjects which are by their nature too long for a comments thread. When they are as well-written and thought-out as this example I am happy to publish them. In this case, the writer, understandably, wishes to remain anonymous:
Villainy and the Ukraine
As an Englishman who lives and works in Moscow I have a different perspective to most people on what has been going on in the Ukraine as I am exposed to media from both western and eastern sources and I regularly discuss developments with English, American and Russian friends. The European and Ukrainian medias are currently depicting Putin as the real villain of the piece, a Hitler for the 21st Century, whereas Russia is presenting him as a strong leader who is prepared to stand up and fight for the interests of his country. I believe that the truth (as always) lies somewhere in the middle.
Never forget that it was the decision of the E.U. to expand into the Russian zone of influence that was the root cause of all the bloodshed. Russia had no alternative but to protect her own interests. Imagine if you will, a parallel situation where treaties were being drawn up to make Scotland part of a newly formed U.S.S.R. The E.U. has blood on its hands and with regard to the Ukraine, I have no hesitation in nominating it as the number one villain.
My number two villain is none other than (ex) President Viktor Yanukovyich, whose epic mishandling of the situation managed to turn a series of protests into a full-blown people's revolution. Although Yanukovych was democratically elected, he adopted totalitarian powers, re-writing the Ukrainian constitution to strengthen his own position. His cronyist policies left his friends and associates rich and ordinary Ukrainians destitute which caused boiling resentment. When people protested - peacefully at first - they were beaten by his Berkut security force and when they protested en-masse, the police followed his orders and attacked them. As a direct result, the protests changed to revolution with over half a million people on the streets. Yanukovych fled and the pictures released of his opulent (and tasteless) multi-million dollar residence speak far more eloquently on why he had to go than anything I could write here.
My number three villain is Vladimir Putin, although it must be stressed that his villainy is of a much lower magnitude than my first two nominations. I personally supported the reunification of the Crimea with Russia because it seems that a clear majority of the people were in favour of it; however I did NOT support the way in which it was done. It seems remarkable that there should have been an instant ballot without any kind of referendum campaign, which would have allowed the arguments for and against reunification to have been fully debated in public and I do not accept the argument that the reason it was done so hastily was to guard against violence by hooligan elements. Also, with 40% of the Crimean population being of non-Russian ethnicity, it seems even more remarkable that the result in favour of re-unification was almost 97%. An article in the American Conservative Newspaper cited 123% of the population of Sevastopol exercising their right to vote plus the use of multiple ballot papers. The frankly unbelievable result is a clear indication to me that these allegations were true. I believe that the rigging of the election was a huge mistake. A transparently honest ballot conducted after a proper referendum campaign would probably have returned a result of 60 - 70% in favour of reunification which would have been accepted by the West. As it is, the finger of blame is being pointed at Putin and the annexation of the Crimea is being directly compared with Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland.
With regard to the current situation in East Ukraine, the European and American medias are citing strong circumstantial evidence (some of it photographic, some intelligence based and some via satellite) that the Kremlin is providing arms, armour, ammunition and specialist personnel and training to the Russian federalist insurgents. The Russian media (and most Russians) would disagree, stating that there is no hard evidence to support this. I am inclined to believe the European and Americans on this for the following reasons.
Throughout history, irregular forces have NEVER been able to stand up to regular soldiers in open battle. This is because they lack numbers, weapons, ammunition and training. When the fighting started in the Ukraine, some Ukrainian army personnel went over to the Russian federalists taking a quantity of arms ammunition and heavy equipment with them. I think we can safely say that the contents of a number of armouries fell into their hands as well. Also a small quantity of (mostly) 1940s vintage tanks have been cranked up, driven off their war memorial plinths or out of museums and are (presumably) now seeing action again although whether or not any ammunition still exists for their obsolete weaponry is a very good question. HOWEVER, IF THE CONTENTS OF SOME ARMOURIES PLUS A QUANTITY OF KIT LIBERATED FROM THE UKRAINIAN ARMY ARE THE ONLY WEAPONS THAT HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE TO THE RUSSIAN FEDERALISTS THE FIGHTING WOULD HAVE CEASED A LONG TIME AGO. This is because open warfare uses up arms and ammunition at a horrendous rate and regular resupplies of both have to made if fighting is to continue. Remember that the Russian Federalists have been fiercely resisting the Ukrainian Army and Air Force in pitched battles for the last five months. The arms, ammunition and materiel that have enabled them to continue to do this must have come from somewhere in large quantities and the only place that they could have come from is from across the Russian border. Recent newspaper reports state that fierce fighting is now taking place in the Donetsk region with HEAVY USE OF ARTILLERY BY BOTH SIDES. Again, insurgents do not commonly use anything heavier than mortars, so the question remains. WHERE IS ALL THIS HEAVY KIT COMING FROM? I am afraid that the answer is obvious.
Finally, as an ex soldier, I have been making my own observations from the TV and YouTube footage of the fighting that has been shown. I would say that in military terms, the only difference between a bag of shit and most Russian federalist insurgents is the bag! However there are a number of personnel with them who stand out like falcons among a flock of pigeons. They are fit, disciplined, wear their kit perfectly and have the unmistakable look of highly professional soldiers. I can recognize crack troops when I see them and these ARE crack troops. The Ukrainians call them 'the green men' and say that they have Russian accents. I am inclined to believe them.
So what is going to happen next? It would be pointless to go into the details of who did or didn't shoot down flight MH17 except to say that perceived truth is always more important than the truth itself and that this tragic incident has polarised opinion like nothing else before it. I think it is fair to say that a majority of Ukrainians are now anti Russian. The Ukrainian Army and Air Force have had a string of victories on the battlefield and the fighting is now confined to a relatively small area of East Ukraine with Donetsk remaining the only significant center of resistance. If Vladimir Putin's aim was to use the Ukraine as the heart of a newly reformed U.S.S.R. then his plans have gone utterly wrong. America and Europe have now been thoroughly alerted and any further military adventurism is likely to meet with a much more robust response. However, Putin is not just playing to a world audience but to his own countrymen as well. Ordinary Russians are intensely patriotic and have an 'us against the whole world' attitude. I believe that in Russia, Putin's actions are seen as those of a strong leader who is standing up for his own country's interests. In consequence, his approval rates will soar and that this will ensure that he remains in power for the foreseeable future.
They say that the first casualty of war is truth and there have been a number of wild accusations being flung about, such as the C.I.A. being behind everything, American snipers being responsible for many of the deaths in Independence Square and even that it was the Ukrainian Army that shot down flight MH17 with the intention of blaming the Russian Federalists. My own opinion is that (for once) the Americans cannot be held responsible for any of this. To me, the footage of the fighting in Kiev looked like a genuine people's revolution against a government that had turned itself into the enemy of the people. Citizens of all ages and backgrounds were taking part with improvised weapons and the idea that a few shadowy C.I.A. operatives were responsible is frankly risible. Having said that, I would very much like to know what the Director of the C.I.A. had been doing in Kiev in April!
To all those who continue to believe in these stories without a shadow of evidence to support them, I would draw their attention to Dr Joseph Goebbels' famous dictum. The first part is well known:
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."
The second part is not so well known but is well worth repeating as it carries a warning for those who govern us:
"The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”
However I leave the last word to William Shakespeare:
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place;' some swearing, some crying for a surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left. I am afeard there are few die well that die in a battle;
Henry V Act IV Scene I
