Politics Magazine

Why Trump Cannot Win

Posted on the 29 June 2016 by Calvinthedog

Two words:  Electoral college.

People who keep insisting that Trump is going to win just don’t get it. Not only can Trump not win, but it is highly likely that no Republican can win the US Presidency in the forseeable future. This is because US elections are decided based on the Electoral College tallies and not the popular vote. And the country, believe it or not, has been getting more and more liberal over the last 20-30 years.

There is now a solid wall of blue states that have voted for a Democratic for President for the last 20+ years. Some states go back further than that and have not voted Republican in thirty years. California is an excellent example. Look at how California has been voting for the President for the last 35 years, and while you are at it, look at who we have been voting for for Governor.

That solid wall of blue has 238 delegates. I do not believe that Trump can crack even one state out of that solid blue. That would almost be like California voting for Trump. Not going to happen.

So Hillary has 238 electoral votes before the election has even happened. She only needs 270 to win. She needs only 32 more electoral votes, and she’s won.

There are 12 swing states. Hillary now leads in nine of the 12 swing states. Nine of the 12! Trump would have to win all of the red stares (which he can probably do) and on top of that, I believe that he has to win all of the swing states. That’s right. All 12 of them. Guess what? That’s not going to happen.

Because the country as a whole is getting so much more liberal and Democratic in recent years and due to the massive Blue Wall that has sprung up in the Electoral College, it is hard to see how the Republican Party can win a Presidential election in the forseeable future. Probably the only future for the Republican Party is to move left with the rest of the country. The Republican Party will probably have to become a much more liberal party than it is now if it wants to win another election. Unfortunately for them, they seem to be moving in the opposite direction.

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