Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.
Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.
Huge update with major changes in my analysis of the case.
Note to commenters 2: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.
And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.
Being a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.
If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.
If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.
Sexually-motivated double homicide of two teenage girls, one 13 and the other 14. For some background on this heartbreaking case, see here.
This is a brand new update of the case as of March 23, 2017. It includes lots of new information, some new theories about the crime and the discarding of some previous theories. All in a day’s sleuthing work.
How Do I Know All This Stuff?
First: How do I know all this stuff?
I have done a lot of research on this case including released information, rumors and borderline areas such as cryptic statements by LE. I have also spoken to people close to the case, including those close to the search party and law enforcement investigation of this case. I also spoke to other sleuthers and people interested in the case. Some were associated with missing persons groups. I have pretty good sleuthing skills involving research. This includes digging through background information databases online and other sorts of web research. However, I will say that I am getting my very best information from people who are close to the girls’ families. Of all of the rumors and information I get, this is some of the best.
This is the source of some of my material.
Other information is derived from my own theorizing about the case. This includes offender profiling.
So there’s the source of all of the information.
I am pessimistic once again about this case. It seems that are so many fantastic suspects and POI’s that I can’t even keep track of them. That’s a bad sign right there.
My Musings on This Case
Rumors state that Libby was killed on 2-13, possibly pretty quickly, and Abby died or 2-14. Rumors continue to state that Abbie lived at least for some time after she was attacked. She somehow survived an incredibly vicious attack, but she died later. Conclusion: Nobody knows. Libby died in 2-13 and Abbie may have too, or perhaps she died on 2-14. People close to the case are giving both scenarios as absolute proven fact, and they can’t both be true. This is still completely up in the air as far as I can tell. Sources: People close to LE, complaints from haters.
This was not a crime of opportunity. He planned this very well. He plans his crimes with the utmost meticulousness. That is why he is armed with the gun and disguising himself. Source: My speculation based on the nature of the offense and the obvious skill involved.
Although catfishing rumors were prominent early on for some very good reasons, these rumors have died down and are now weak. At the moment, catfishing appears unlikely. If you do not know what catfishing is, look it up. Sources: Rumors.
Unsub is 5’10, 180 pounds with a bit of a middle aged man’s stomach paunch. Other sleuths and common citizens are offering differing views, but I take the expert for now. Source: Expert on CNN, paunch obvious in photo.
In my opinion, Unsub’s age is ~60, but really who knows. LE’s latest estimate is that he is 40-50 years old, but that’s seems too young to me. At the very least, that style of pants is outdated and nowadays is only worn by men over 40 in that area. Presence of fanny pack also indicates an older man. They were popular in the late 1980’s, but hardly anyone wears them anymore except for some older guys. Conclusion: At the moment, the LE estimate of 40-50 is the best guess, but that could still be off. Sources: LE stated that he had a fanny pack. LE estimate on age. Info on fanny packs and jeans style by people looking at the photos.
Excellent new drawing of Unsub from an LE artist.
LE believes that Unsub came from out of state to do this crime. Source: Recent remark by Indiana State Police quoted in media, my theory based on my favorite POI.
Clearly Unsub has a pistol, a .45 or 911. The pistol was holstered to his right side, which means he is left-handed. The outline of the pistol can clearly be seen in the photo released of the man. A photo exists showing the pistol outlined with graphic software. Assuming that is a pistol, and it is, then Unsub is left-handed. Source: Gun is obviously visible in photograph. Left-handedness concluded from the holstered gun pointing backwards on the right side.
Photo clearly shows a semiautomatic .911 or 45 mm handgun holstered on his right, which means he is lefthanded. Incredibly, about 85% of the people who see this photo insists that’s not a gun, or that it can’t be a gun until God or the cops or Mom or whoever tells us what we are seeing with our own two eyes. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I have two eyeballs. When my eyes tell me I am seeing something, I take it as proven fact. Apparently we humans are not supposed to believe very our own eyes!
Unsub may be trying to disguise himself in the photos by using a hat and a scarf. Source: LE statement.
The killer appears to be wearing a camouflage cap. He is an example of one type.
Unsub is wearing a hat, a jacket with a hoodie and blue jeans in the photo. In my opinion, the hat is a camouflage hunting cap with padded ear muffs. Unsub is overdressed for the weather. He seems to have layers of clothing on. He has almost his entire body covered with clothing. Part of this is no doubt to disguise himself, but another reason is so he will have few exposed areas of his body where the girls could leave scratch marks if the girls fight back hard, although they still could scratch up his face pretty well. Source: LE statements about clothing. Statement about type of cap is my conjecture from the photo. Reason for being heavily dressed is common sense for an offender preparing to commit rape and murder.
Another camouflage cap. I like this one a lot better, and to me it matches very well with the cap worn by Unsub in the bridge photo.
Fanny pack is probably where he kept his murder kit. Sources: Murder kit is my conjecture. What else is in there? A first aid kit?
GIF image of Unsub photos run together.
There has been much talk about whether or not there were two murderers or one. It is not yet proven that there were two killers, and LE is now leaning towards the theory that there was one killer. However, even LE themselves described who did of this crime as “the murderers.” And from the very start, they referred to Unsub as a participant instead of a suspect. Participant is almost never used unless LE thinks there is more than one killer.
Police are now walking this back by saying that it’s standard procedure to assume maybe more than one killer in a homicide case, but that’s not even true so they must think we are stupid. It isn’t. There was some specific reason why they thought there were two killers in this case, and we do not know what that reason was. At any rate, they seem to be walking the two killers theory back too, and they are leaning towards one killer. Conclusion: Two killers or one? Take your pick. No one knows! Source: Very strange LE statements.
There have been persistent rumors since even before the case was released to the media (these early rumors coming from family members) that Abbie survived til the next day, 2-14. The rumors were that she was found alive but died on the way to the hospital, that she was alive when found but died soon after, that the coroner said she survived the attack but died of hypothermia the next day, that her body was still warm when found, etc. These rumors started almost instantly from people close to the family. We now have some excellent information that she somehow survived the attack and tried to crawl a ways away until she died. I am still getting reports that Abbie died on 2-14, and her body was still warm when found from some of my best sources close to the families, so this version is still strong.
Now there is aggressive criticism of this theory from people who insist that both girls died on 2-13. Which begs the question again of how and why all the survival stories even got started in the first place. Conclusion: The best analysis now is that Abbie did indeed survive the initial attack and died at some point later on. The thing we do not know is how long she survived after she was attacked. We do not know if she died soon after the attack or if she lingered for anywhere from 7-10 hours, which is my theory. Sources: Rumors, people close the family, people close to LE.
Rumors from the search party stated that the girls had to have been moved since the dump site found on 2-14 had been searched on 2-13. The searchers were adamant that they had searched the dump site thoroughly on 2-13. But the girls were covered with leaves, which would have made them hard to find at night. On the other hand, new evidence states that searchers ran a thermal imager over the area (perhaps with an aircraft?), and while there were plenty of living things down there, none of them were human. In other words, the only things alive in that woods when the imager was run were wild animals. One would think that if the girls had been put there by 4 PM or so on 2-13 that the bodies would have shown up on the thermal imager. Sources: People close to the search party, people close to the families.
The crime scene does not make a lot of sense in this case. The girls seem to have been attacked soon after Unsub said, “Go down the hill.” The entire south side of the creek was roped off as a crime scene. I do not feel that this is a homicide site; instead, I feel there was some sort of an altercation here as he tried to put them in a vehicle, perhaps a Ford Mustang, that he had parked there for this purpose.
People are now saying that the whole attack was over soon after it began, and there are reports saying that the 6-minute audiotape contains the horrifying record of a homicide. This would imply that the girls were murdered very quickly. But when they were found, they were bound and had been sexually brutalized as well as being very badly beaten. One would think this would take some time to do.
Also there would be a lot of noise if they were killed right away on the south side of the creek, and someone surely would have heard. The degree of the assault indicating a significant assault over a period of time and the lack witnesses hearing noise or screams on the south side of the creek implies to me that the attacks took place elsewhere, perhaps in some remote structure. If they were in a remote structure, he could have assaulted them a long time without being seen, and the sound of the assault and the girls’ could easily not have been heard as there was no one nearby. New reports state that LE believes that the girls were assaulted and attempts were made to kill them in some sort of a structure somewhere, perhaps on Ron Logan’s property.
Reports that the crime was over quickly after it began do not make sense for a variety of reasons. However, there is some brutal audio and perhaps video that Liberty recorded on her phone. Some of the audio was recorded right before the abduction, and there is six minutes after that. The audio right after the recording of the man saying, “Down the hill,” records the girls screaming.
Does that imply that the girls were attacked soon after being told to go down the hill? Not necessarily. Perhaps Liberty was very smart, and she was turning the recorder on and off throughout the abduction, only turning it on when things got scary or brutal.
However, whatever was recorded on the phone was surely recorded before 5:30 PM 2-13. After that time and for several hours, Liberty’s phone was pinging all over town which means it was not in Liberty’s possession, or perhaps it was on her body but not accessible as she was tied up. But in that case, the killer would have had to discover the phone in her clothing and discarded it. He got close and personal with these girls and was familiar with their clothing as both may been disrobed. At the point of disrobing, he could have found Liberty’s gun on her.
The assumption has been that Liberty discarded the phone in the woods before 5:30 PM, and then the phone pinged all over town looking for a signal for several hours before dying. The problem with this theory is that if she threw the phone in the woods, it should have been found by now. And the latest rumor is that Liberty’s phone was not found by LE. The audio and video was obtained from the Cloud as video and audio from smartphones is saved very quickly after it is recorded. So LE didn’t even need the phone because all the relevant information was on the Cloud.
OK, so why was Liberty’s phone pinging all over town for several hours during the search? This would make sense if the phone was in the woods, but it appears now that the phone was not in the woods. So why did it ping all over town? Perhaps it was discarded in some other remote part of the town area.
Or perhaps the killer left the two girls bound in some structure somewhere while the search went on, while he himself took off in a vehicle and drove aimlessly all around town for a few hours during the search. But Unsub would have had to be a moron to keep a pinging phone with him. But if Unsub saw it, he could have grabbed the phone so LE would not find it as evidence. So why not turn it off? Why leave it on as you drive all over town?
At any rate under this scenario, Unsub either disposed of or destroyed the phone after it died, and this is why it has never been found. Perhaps he smashed it to bits. Perhaps he discarded it in the garbage somewhere. Of course, all of this makes sense if the latest rumors about LE not finding the phone are correct.
This is the first rumor that says anything about whether the phone was found or not. Up to now, we had no word from LE or rumors about the disposition of the phone. Conclusion: There are various theories floating around concerning Liberty’s phone, but they only make sense if LE found the phone. If LE did not retain the phone, the rest of the evidence around the phone doesn’t make a lot of sense. Bottom line is we don’t know anything about this phone or whether it was even found by LE or not. Source: People close to the search party, people close to the case.
There is a theory from people close to the family saying that the actual killings took place on the north side of the creek, However, it was the south side that was roped off as a crime scene, not the north side. Yes, the tape was removed two days later, but so what? This is standard procedure in a park. But if the south side was not a homicide scene but instead some other sort of scene such as an abduction scene, it could have been gone over quickly and there would be no reason to keep it roped off.
The girls were clearly not attacked or not attacked much at the dump site as the dump site was described as pristine. How does a murder site look pristine? It doesn’t. Conclusion: The best theory right now is that the south side was the scene of some scuffle probably as he was trying to tie them up or get them in his vehicle. The best evidence now suggests that the girls were killed somewhere else, apparently in some structure. But no one knows where this structure might be.
The FBI interviewed a man who had property on the south side of the creek about structures on his land, so it appears that the FBI thinks that the structure could have been on the south side of the creek. The major searches of Ron Logan’s land, the structures there, etc. imply to me that the girls were murdered somewhere on Logan’s land, probably in some structure on his land. So the repeated searches of Logan’s property do not imply that Logan is guilty so much as that he is the owner of property where a serious crime occurred. Sources: People close to the family, rumors, leaks from LE.
There is indeed a voice recording of Unsub saying, “Go down the hill.” This was recorded heroically by Libby by turning on the recorder on her phone as the girls were being abducted. The sound recording of the crime is said to be much longer than what was released. It has also been implied, terrifyingly, that the sound recording is actually the recording of the rapes and murders. That probably makes it one of the worst sound recordings made in a crime case in some time, going back to the Toolbox Murders in 1979
What is on the unreleased portion of the tape? After Unsub says, “Go down the hill,” at some point not long after that, you hear both girls screaming. Source: People close to the family.
There is talk of a Ford Mustang that can be barely seen in the lower left of the photo of Abbie on the bridge below the bridge. It is very hard to make out, but it could well be a vehicle. How it was determined to be a Ford Mustang and a white one at that is not known. It is not yet known how this purported vehicle was involved in the case. I would think that this vehicle was used by Unsub to travel to the crime scene and then it was used again to abduct and transport the girls, apparently to some structure somewhere.
The road that it is parked on is a very little used road that almost no one has even heard of. It appears to have been a road used by workers to maintain the bridge. Access to it is quite difficult and involves some convoluted twists and turns of road, not to mention that part of the access is via a private driveway. It does seem very odd to me that that purported vehicle is in that location right before the girls got abducted. If that is a car, I am thinking that that car does not belong there at all and that it is significant to the case in some unknown way. Source: Sleuths analyzing the photo of Libby on the bridge, people close to the family
The vehicle can barely be seen circled in blue, or maybe you can’t make it out at all. This photo has now been enhanced.
The vehicle is still hard to make out in this enhanced photo, but if you look very carefully, you might be able to see a car. Or maybe you won’t. Squint and try your luck.
Libby’s grandfather who raised her said, “I know Libby. She put up one Hell of a fight.” He is correct that Libby put up a strong battle. The reason that the grandfather said she put up a wild fight is probably because that is what it says in the medical report. If she fought hard, there will be talk of defensive wounds and maybe DNA under her nails. The condition of her body at the funeral adds weight to the notion that she fought back very hard and sustained many defensive wounds because she had many small wounds on her body and face. In that case, Unsub may have scratch marks. Source: Media reports and statements from people at the funeral. Common sense that the only way the grandfather would known that she fought hard was if he saw the coroners’ report.
I believe the gun obviously holstered on the right under the jacket of Unsub was probably used to control the girls. He also got them to keep quiet with the gun. However, I do not believe the gun was used to kill the girls. It would have made too much noise. Rumors that this was not a gun crime are correct. Source: Common sense that the gun would be the best way to control the girls and common sense that a gun crime would have involved audible gunshots. No gunshots were heard, so doubtless there was no gun fired in this crime.
There is a rumor that both girls had their throats slit. This is a strong rumor. Funerals were open casket, and both girls had scarves covering their necks, more to cover something up than as clothing. There is a counter-rumor to this one saying that some people at the funeral said they saw no scarves on the girls, but this is a weak rumor. The rumor about the presence of scarves is a much stronger rumor. This adds weight to the theory that their throats were slit.
There are two rumors about the knife attack on one of the girls, probably Liberty. A weak rumor says she was decapitated. The strong rumor says she was nearly decapitated. A decapitation would have been hard for a funeral director to hide, and both girls had their heads on at the funeral. Of the two rumors, the strong one looks better. Since Abbie survived the assault for at least some time afterwards, it was surely Liberty who was nearly decapitated. It would have been almost impossible for Abbie to survive a near-decapitation. No one can survive that.
In fact, it appears that the the wound to Abbie’s throat was not a particularly grievous wound. In other words, if he was trying to kill her, he did a poor job of it. Although the rumor that their throats were slit is only a rumor, it is interesting that there have been no counter-rumors saying this method of attack is not true. One would think that if there were any doubt about this sort of attack, we would have heard at least one counter-rumor by now. Sources: Rumors including the very first reports of the crime from family members. Later confirmation from people close to LE. Statements by people at the funeral.
A new rumor says that both girls were beaten so badly in their faces that they were nearly unrecognizable. This rumor may well be true, but at least Abbie was fixed up pretty good in her face for the funeral, so one wonders how a funeral director could have covered up such devastating wounds. Source: Source close to the family.
This offense was clearly sexually motivated, and it seems quite clear that sexual assault occurred in the course of the crime. The very first rumors from the family members said both girls had been raped. This was later amended to at least one of the girls. The notion that only one girl was raped would not seem logical. This fellow had a lot of time to carry out his assaults and rapists don’t usually only rape one victim and leave the other one alone.
There is a new report that says that while both girls were raped, Abbie received a worse sexual assault than Liberty did, but I am not sure what that implies. This rumor gibes with several other things about this case that have long suggested that Abbie was a primary target for sexual assault, and Liberty may have been a secondary target. Sources: Very first reports of the crime from family members and later confirmation from people close to LE, general rumors, sources close to family.
There is uncertain information about the state of the bodies when found. All rumors indicate that Abbie was nude. There are differing reports about Liberty, some saying she was clothed and some saying she was also nude. Considering that clothing was found in the creek in an attempt to eliminate DNA evidence, it does not make sense that the killer would leave probable DNA-contaminate clothing on Liberty’s body. Abbie’s clothes were surely found in the water and common sense would indicate that Liberty’s were too. Conclusion: The theory that best explains the facts is that both girls were found nude. Sources: Rumors, sources close to the family.
There is a new rumor from a very good source stating that DNA, apparently of Unsub, was in fact recovered from the crime scene. However, LE has not been able to match up the DNA with any known collected samples from felons or former felons. Source: A good source in Delphi.
From the same source, there is a new rumor that bootprints were found at the scene, apparently of boots worn by Unsub. This would make sense as LE had some boots in an evidence bag a few days after the killings. They innocuously said that the boots had nothing to do with the crime, but they were probably lying. They probably did not recover Unsub’s actual boots themselves. Why would Unsub discard his boots at the crime scene and walk away shoeless? Makes no sense. It is more likely that LE matched the bootprints to that type and size of boot, implying that Unsub was wearing boots of that make and size at the time of the crime. Sources: LE, source in Delphi.
The girls’ clothing was found in the creek. This was no doubt an attempt by Unsub to destroy any DNA evidence. Source: Statements from reporter at the scene. Common sense indicates that this was an attempt to destroy DNA in the case.
There is an incredible new rumor that victim Abigail Williams, age 13, was pregnant at the time of the attack. It is now known that she definitely had a boyfriend, who was 16 years old. He has been located, and we know his name. No one knows if there is anything to this rumor or not, as it just broke today. Source: A sleuth.
There is now a very gruesome rumor about the attack. The rumor says that Abbie’s body was found with a wooden stick, stake or pointed branch driven into her stomach. In other words, Unsub would have stood over Abbie and plunged the stick into her belly, pinioning her like a shishkebab. If this is true, that it is even more incredible for her to survive the attack and even to crawl around with a stick in her body. Source: A source close to the family.
Tying together both of the shocking new rumors is the suggestion that Unsub knew that Abbie was pregnant, and the stick attack was an attempt to kill the fetus too. One last, “Go to Hell,” and show of contempt for his victim by Unsub before he walked away. Although this makes sense, one wonders how he could have possibly known that she was pregnant given that she was not very far along. Look at Abbie in the bridge photo. Does she look pregnant in that photo? Don’t think so. So how would Unsub discover that she was pregnant. When people are under the control of a potentially murderous person who is assaulting them with what looks like homicidal intent, a lot of victims make various pleas to their attacker(s) to please spare their lives.
These take the form of appeals such as, “Please, no, I have a wife and three kids!…No, spare me, I am the sole breadwinner for my family of five!,” etc. I am sure there are many more. Victims make all sorts of pleas and engage in various manipulations of the person assaulting them in an attempt to stay alive. Most people do not want to die and will try all sorts of desperate measures in an attempt to not be murdered.
Sometimes they work, the attacker has a change of heart and decides to spare one or more victims. If Abbie pleaded with Unsub that he would be killing not just her but another potential life, then Unsub would have learned of her pregnancy then. Source: Speculation by me and a fellow sleuth attempting to make sense of the stick attack by tying it to the pregnancy theory.
There is now a lot of talk that Ron Logan or perhaps his son were involved in this crime. Logan was arrested recently on a probation violation for a drunk driving case. This set the rumor mill wild as there was much talk that Logan was involved in the murders. He was jailed for a week or so and a secondary search of his land was conducted. Many took this to mean that Logan was the killer. Logan was released after his probation violation hearing, which means that LE does not consider him a suspect in the murders. Furthermore, Logan always seemed an unlikely suspect for me for many reasons. Source: News reports.
Three other posts in this series:
Updated March 9: Profile of the Evansdale-Delphi Serial Killer
The Case for Unsub Involvement in Both the Delphi and Evansdale Double Murders
The Case for Linking the Delphi Murders with the Evansdale Murders
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