Ukraine advantages: More men. Air power (not in use). Number of fighters unknown.
Novorussian advantages: More equipment. Better equipment. Better morale. 30,000 fighters.
Click to enlarge. Please refer to this map to locate the cities and towns discussed in the post. All locations discussed in the post can be found easily on the map.
The fighting recently has centered on an area called the Debaltsevo pocket. 3,000 Novorussian troops have just surrounded 8,000 Ukrainian troops who are trapped there. Roadblocks are being set up. Just now, Marinovka was captured by the militia. The Ukies say they will fight to the end. They are very heavily dug in, and it will not be easy to take the city. If the militia can close off the Debaltsevo pocket, they can turn it into a cauldron or boiler if you will.
The Ukies have been trying desperately to resupply the forces in Debaltsevo via Artemovsk, but they are having dubious success. The problem that the militia now have control over the Debaltsevo-Artemovsk road to the extent that they are able to rain artillery down on it. Just now, there is a report of a Ukie column trying to get to Debaltsevo but is stuck on the road under artillery fire and unable to advance further.
There are only about 3,000 people left in Debaltsevo and people are leaving all the time. They will have to run a gauntlet of militia artillery to get out via the road.
The militia may or may not have control of part of Debaltsevo, probably the northeastern part.
However, fighting is extremely heavy in this area. The militia also recently took Uglegorsk to the west after a very heavy battle. The now control almost all of the city, and the Ukies just retreated east from Uglegorsk. The militia took quite a few Ukie prisoners in Uglegorsk. The loss of Uglegorsk was a significant defeat for the Ukies.
Above, another large militia column in Uglegorsk. Three damaged militia tanks are in the foreground. The militiaman in the video is saying, “We are going to repair these tanks and fight as far as we can go.”
There is an extremely heavy battle going on now for the town of Chernuhino with street to street fighting in the center of the city. There were reports that the militia had taken the town, but those were in error. Just now, the militia stormed all Ukie checkpoints in town.
The militia just took the entire town of Nikishno which the Ukies had held since August. A Ukie counterattack was not successful.
The area of the Debaltsevo pocket is where most of the fighting is. There are reports of Ukies abandoning their positions, and there are also a number of defectors. A Ukie unit in this region recently changed sides, went over to the militia and helped the militia take a town. There were reports of artillery fire between the Ukies and the volunteer Nazi battalions.
To the north in Artemovsk where the Ukie field hospitals are located, there is a steady stream of Ukie wounded pouring in from the Debaltsevo pocket. The hospitals are in poor shape, but medics are working very hard. It is an ugly scene.
The Ukies are bombarding the city of Gorlovka with artillery. The fire is just terrorist fire aimed at the city itself or civilian structures in the city. There was a 4 hour bombardment last night. All of the population is in shelters. The Ukies are also firing artillery at the city of Enakievo. The Ukies continue to control the city of Svetlodarsk which the militia are trying to capture to seal off the pocket. The militia have the city surrounded on three sides.
There are heavy battles going on in Minorovsky and Mironovka, both held by the militia. Militia-held Krasny Panzak is also under attack and there is fighting in the town.
The Ukies finally succeeded in capturing the city of Troitskoe to the northeast of the Debaltsevo pocket. A huge battle for the city of Popasnaya has been going on for some time. Neither army controls the city. There are artillery duels in the area of Nizhee, Kyrimskoe and Gorskoe, all controlled by the Ukies. To the south is a no man’s land. A lot of battles have taken place over some checkpoints in the area, especially Checkpoint 31.
The front line is holding in the area of Schaste-Stanitska-Luhanskaya-Slavyanoserbsk. Artillery duels go back and forth, but the line doesn’t really change.
To the west of Gorlovka, there is very heavy fighting going on in Maryorsk and Shumni, towns which are controlled by neither army. The militia are trying to bust through to the city of Dzherzinsk. They have reached the eastern outskirts but have been unable to go much further.
South of Gorlovka, the town of Ozeryanovka was taken a few days ago. Artillery maps confiscated from the Ukies showed that the Ukies were deliberately targeting civilian targets such as restaurants, churches and markets in Gorlovka. Krazny Partisan was taken by the militia earlier.
West and north of Donetsk, there is extremely heavy fighting going on in the area around the airport in Peski, Opyinoe and Avkeevka. All three towns are controlled by the Ukies. The militia have been trying to take Peski for some time now with no success. They complain that the Ukies are hiding behind civilian shields. There is also heavy fighting going on in Spartask, controlled by the militia. Some forward Ukie forces are still in Yasinovataya, where heavy fighting is still ongoing although the city is supposedly controlled by the militia. The militia recently took the railroad station in the center of town. Heavy fighting continues in Marinka. Reports that the militia had taken the town were in error. Neither side controls the city.
East of Donetsk, Ukie artillery rains down on the city of Makeevka, controlled by the militia. There have been huge militia convoys of Russian vehicles moving through Makeevka recently, destination unknown but possibly heading towards the front near the airport.
In Donetsk, the Ukies continue to engage in terror shelling. These are not shells that go astray. The Ukies shoot at the city itself with no targets in mind. There were 10 Ukie reconnaissance squads operating behind enemy lines in Donetsk out of vans, mortaring the city. 8 of them have been rolled up. Locals are cooperating with the militia in locating these saboteurs.
South of Donetsk, the Ukies are hammering the cities of Elenovka, Dokuchaevsk and Telmanovo with artillery. Once again, these are terror shelling aimed at the cities themselves. Ukies have also been trying to break through militia lines at Elenovka and Dokuchaevsk, but they have not been successful. There are heavy battles going on in Novotroitskoe southwest of Dokuchaevsk which is controlled by the Ukies. These are mostly artillery duels.
From Dokuchaevsk south to Mariupol, nothing is going on at the front line other than reinforcement of positions. After the Ukie artillery attack on Mariupol that caused 125 civilian casualties, there has been no fighting in Mariupol. However, the Ukies feel that the militia is getting ready for a huge push to take the city. Drones are overhead constantly. It is not known who is operating the drones.
Both sides are fighting very hard and very well. The Ukie performance in the field is much better than it was last summer. Also they have massively reinforced their positions. The militia are also fighting very well, quite professionally. One wonders if Russian military advisors are helping them.
There are heavy casualties on both sides, especially in the Debaltsevo pocket and near the airport. Both sides are probably suffering equivalent casualties.
The supply train of equipment from Russia is going full blast. There appear to be some Russian soldiers in this mix, but there are no regular Russian fighting units. Some draftees are being pressured to “volunteer” to go to Novorussia, but not all of them want to go. Poroshenko’s claim that there are 9,000 Russian soldiers in the area is in error. The true number is much lower but is unknown. Tanks with Russian flags and a tank with the emblem of Russian military intelligence have been seen in Uglegorsk recently. There are also videos of what Ukies claim are Russian soldiers. How they determined this is not known. This video was also shot in Uglegorsk.
There are huge convoys of Russian military vehicles moving about in various locales in Western Russia. Where they are headed is not known.
Above is a large convoy of Russian military vehicles on the move in the Belgorad region of Russia, destination unknown. Ukies and the Western media like to go on and on about how all of the Russian humanitarian convoys are fake and are really military convoys disguised as humanitarian. However, all humanitarian convoys are exactly that. The Russian military convoys are quite blatant and simply drive right across the border with no attempt made to disguise them.
Above, a massive rebel column in Makeevka, possibly going to the front lines near the airport. All or most all of these vehicles have probably arrived from Russia recently. Whether the crews of these vehicles are militia or Russians is not known, but probably most of them are militia.
The Ukie government recently declared a state of emergency in Donetsk and Lugansk. This means the area is under martial law. The government also issued an order to allow officers to shoot Ukie troops who are guilty of insubordination. This implies that many Ukie conscripts do not wish to fight much or at all and are fleeing when attacked.
The Ukies have started draft call-ups in Kramatorsk, a Donetsk city they control, but there have been protests against that as the residents support the militia.
There is massive draft evasion ongoing in Ukraine, as many thousands of men are fleeing, hiding or leaving the country. Putin has announced that Russia is open for any Ukrainian men wishing to dodge the draft.
