Photo: emptythebench.com
- Adam ParkerThe cat and mouse game between the Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning and team owner Jim Irsay has gone on so long, it's overshadowed the fact that countless other NFL faces could have new places to call home once the free-agent signing period gets underway on March 13.
Fortunately for most NFL fans, the Manning/Irsay soap opera won't be the only newsworthy moves on the wire this off-season. Many other recognizable names could be changing zip codes and donning new uniforms; some of them likely to have comparable impact to the Manning matinee for their respective teams.
We can already guess that some of the biggest free-agent names won't be part of the festivities. There's no way that New Orleans lets Pro-Bowl quarterback Drew Brees leave the Big Easy. They no doubt will place the franchise tag on him before that happens. After the season Matt Forte had for the Chicago Bears, it's safe to say that Chicago will franchise tag him as well if the two sides can't agree on a long-term deal. Then there's the matter of Philadelphia Eagles' bolt of lightning fast wide receiver DeSean Jackson. The two sides had a falling out during the season, but it's more than likely that Jackson will receive the franchise player designation as well.
But what of the rest of the high-profile talent that will be hitting the job market?
3. Mario Williams, OLB/DE, Texans: Houston is caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to contract talks with "Super" Mario Williams. They're one of the most salary cap-strapped teams entering the off-season, while Williams is a Pro Bowl-caliber player who earns his paycheck at one of the league's most expensive positions.
However, if the Texans were to slap the franchise tag on Williams, it would mean guaranteeing him $22.9 million this season. That is something they can ill afford to do with contract negotiations surrounding restricted free agent running back Arian Foster also looming on the horizon.
The best case scenario for Houston is that Williams loves the team enough to return to them on a hometown discount. That wouldn't make any business sense for Williams, however, as he's only 27 years old and has 53.5 sacks over five season in the NFL. Not only that, he has also proven that he's versatile enough to be a 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 defensive end. "Super" Mario is likely to become the highest paid defensive player in league history and a fixture in someone's pass rush. It's too bad that Houston likely won't be where he collects his paychecks.
2. Brandon Carr, CB, Chiefs: With the recent signing of longtime Raiders cornerback Stanford Routt to a three-year, $19.6 million deal, it's become evident that the Chiefs are in prime position to give Carr his walking papers. Carr, as a 25-year-old cornerback with good size (6-feet, 207 pounds) and reliable man coverage skills is an intriguing case to say the least.
He is an unrestricted free agent at the same time of the Chiefs' top receiver, Dwayne Bowe. You might think it would be a simple fix to just pay them both considering that the Chiefs are one of the top five teams with the most cap space entering the off-season. But the reality of it is that it's not that simple.
Cornerbacks with Carr's potential tend to attract a lot of coin on the open market, and with Routt now in the fold, it's not likely that Chiefs owner Clark Hunt wants to enter into that type of bidding war. If I were a betting man, my money is that the Chiefs give Bowe his long-term extension, because they need to surround quarterback Matt Cassel with as much talent as possible if he is to succeed.
Not to mention that Kansas City has already given sizable extensions to cornerback Brandon Flowers, outside linebacker Tamba Hali and inside linebacker Derrick Johnson in recent years. I expect Carr to go for a pretty penny in free agency, as he's good enough to be what Carlos Rogers and Jonathan Joseph were in San Francisco and Houston respectively this season: maturing cornerbacks who can elevate a good defense to great.
1. Matt Flynn, QB, Packers: This is the biggest risk-reward free agent in the class. He's the only quarterback with any serious starter's potential -- San Francisco has already decided to re-sign Alex Smith after his breakout season -- and so much of Flynn's is based on the two games he's ever started in the league. Recent history suggests that teams do their due diligence before targeting Flynn. Matt Cassel did a great job of replacing the injured Tom Brady during New England's 2008 season, but since then, he's been a mediocre starter at best in three years with the Chiefs.
Oh, and we can't forget about Kevin Kolb. Kolb should've been a great deal for the Arizona Cardinals after his four years in Philadelphia (three behind Donovan McNabb and a fourth that involved his losing his job to Michael Vick), but he's only generated more skepticisim surrounding his future after an inconsistent, injury-marred first season with the desert birds.
Flynn's brightest moments came against a New England defense in 2010 that ranked 31st against the pass and made every opposing quarterback look like Dan Marino and then you have his record-setting performance this past season against a Detroit team with an injury-riddled secondary.
I'm not trying to put a damper on Flynn's chances as a starter once the phone calls from teams looking for a franchise quarterback start rolling in. But looking both ways before you cross the street on this one would be wise, because like Cassel and Kolb, Flynn may not be the same hot prospect without the supporting cast he's about to leave behind in Lambeau.
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