The part about Donetsk being surrounded is not good at all, but it’s been heading this way for some time now. On August 3, one of my friends told me that the US media said that Donetsk was surrounded and all of the MSM were crowing about all the civilians being massacred in that city. I told her that Donetsk was not surrounded, but the Nazis were trying to surround the city. Now, six days later, it appears that the city is indeed surrounded. That is not a positive thing. However, the resistance has been in crisis “we are losing” mode quite a few times recently, and none of them ever came to pass.
I agree with the The Saker that the tenacity of the Ukies is incredible. I cannot believe they are fighting so hard. However, yesterday Ukie planes bombed their own troops who they thought were heading over the border into Russia to surrender. Soldiers who give up or surrender are charged with “desertion” or dereliction of duty.” Officers who fail to complete ordered objectives are issued demands to come before a court martial.
The morale of Ukie troops is quite low, which makes sense. The regime will barely even fund its own forces and it mostly using its own people as cannon fodder. The report about Saur Mogila is correct. The Ukies actually held it for a day, but then they abandoned it under heavy artillery fire. At the moment, neither side has control over the mountain and both sides are shelling it. The Resistance recently captured the mount, but they just abandoned it yesterday amidst significant casualties.
1) All the signs are that the Ukies have broken through several resistance lines and that Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
2) The situation around Saur Mogila is very confused. From what I can tell the Resistance has lost the hill, but the Ukies have not taken it either. Both sides are shelling the hill.
At this point, I it too early to assess the situation. Yes, it looks bad, no doubt about it, but looks can be deceiving. For one thing, nobody in the Resistance side is in a panic or even disaster mode. The message I get it “the situation is serious but tenable”.
Here is what I wrote to a contact just a few hours ago:
What I don’t like is the fact that the Ukies are still in the offensive mode. They bleed, and they attack. They bleed again, and they attack again. Then they bleed some more, and they attack again. What if they suffer humongous casualties, and then win. Do you see what I fear? The resistance can do what the Germans did in WWII – win tactically, but loose operationally and then strategically. I am afraid that the resistance will “win its way to defeat”.
I am not saying that this is why is happening now. And at least one contact has replied to me “no collapse. Everything is holding”.
We shall see.
The Saker
