Photo: mlive.com
- Adam Parker
Hello, everyone and welcome back to another edition of the Beard And Stache NFL Pick Em'.
When I started this last week, I wasn't quite sure how I was going to do with it, but after going 11-2 (not counting the Thanksgiving Thursday games) in my first time with this, I've decided it's something that I'd like to do every week.
My only two blemishes last week were the Redskins/Seahawks game, where I chose Seattle, and the Broncos/Chargers game, where I chose San Diego.
I learned two things from those particular mistakes. In Washington's case, I should have picked them because their defense is stout against the run, and if you can stop Marshawn Lynch, you can basically shut down Seattle entirely.
As for picking the Chargers to defeat the Broncos, I made one fatal error, which was betting against 'Father Clutch' himself, Tim Tebow, and what is slowly becoming a very capable defense in Mile High. Needless to say, I won't be making that mistake again.
My Pick Em' Record: (11-2)
Now, on to the picks for Week 13!
Eagles (4-8) at Seahawks (5-7):
If I'm going to be perfectly honest, I probably would've picked the Eagles in this one. They're by far the better team on paper, and Seattle doesn't have anything going on offense outside of Marshawn Lynch. However, as it's been all season for Philadelphia, they've proven me wrong once again, by stinking in a game where they most definitely should have flourished. Vince Young looked atrocious at quarterback, and in typical Andy Reid fashion, the Eagles didn't give running back LeSean McCoy enough touches on the ground. As it's been all season for Philadelphia, poor coaching decisions, turnovers, and an under-performing defense does the Eagles in once again.
Actual Result, Seahawks win, 31-14.
Panthers (3-8) at Buccaneers (4-7):
The Buccaneers have been up and down all year, especially if you look at the play of quarterback Josh Freeman. They're coming off a 23-17 loss to Tennessee, where the ghost of 2010's Chris Johnson ran for 190 yards. Carolina is coming off a comfortable win against a winless Colts team. This looks to be a fairly even matchup, however, the Panthers gave up 80 yards on the ground to Donald Brown last week, and I have to think that, if Tampa Bay can get LeGarrette Blount going, they can pull out a win in this one.
Prediction - Buccaneers win, 20-14.
Bengals (7-4) at Steelers (8-3):
The first time these teams met ended with a 24-17 Steelers victory. The Bengals ran the ball well with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott against a historically tough Steelers run defense. However, rookie quarterback Andy Dalton threw two costly interceptions, and the Steelers were able to churn out a victory behind the legs of Mendenhall and the arm of Roethlisberger. I think the Steelers win another close one here and sweep the season series between the two AFC North rivals, because I have to give the edge to a Dick LeBeau coached defense against a rookie quarterback.
Prediction - Steelers win, 20-17.
Falcons (7-4) at Texans (8-3):
This is a tough one to call. Both of these teams are getting hot at the right time and both have solid, balanced offensive attacks. Wade Phillips has turned the Texans into a top five defense, but they are also without quarterbacks Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart for likely the rest of the season. Rookie T.J. Yates is slated to get his first career NFL start against the Dirty Birds, and if Atlanta's second-ranked rush defense keeps Arian Fotser and Ben Tate at bay, the offense will have to turn to Yates to produce points, something Atlanta's All-Pro defensive ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards would love to see.
Prediction - Falcons win, 24-21.
Jets (6-5) at Redskins (4-7):
Even though the Redskins are coming off a win, it came against a team that's probably as bad off at quarterback as they are. The Redskins' defense will play inspired, but their atrocious offense won't produce enough points against Bart Scott and company to keep up with the Jets in this one.
Prediction - Jets win, 23-13.
Colts (0-11) at Patriots (8-3):
This looked like it would be another classic clash of the titans when the schedules were released, but without Peyton Manning, the Colts don't stand a chance against a Tom Brady-led Patriots offense that's fueling on cylinders. Sure, New England's defense stinks, but the Colts probably won't be able to muster much offense with Dan Orlovsky, and definitely not enough to outscore the 'Golden Boy' and the rest of his entourage. Patriots win in typical Patriot blowout fashion here.
Prediction - Patriots win, 38-7.
Raiders (7-4) at Dolphins (3-8):
This matchup is very intriguing. Carson Palmer finally seems to be hitting his stride since Oakland got him off the couch and brought him in to be their quarterback. However, Miami is playing much better football in the second half of the season. That being said, I don't see the Dolphins being able to contain the Raiders' running game. Add in a few big plays from what the late and great Al Davis called the 'vertical passing game' and the result is a comfortable win for Oakland.
Prediction - Raiders win, 24-14.
Broncos (6-5) at Vikings (2-9):
I said in the beginning of this post that I wouldn't make the mistake of betting against Tim Tebow again. Since Adrian Peterson has been ruled out for the second consecutive week while he's still bothered with a high ankle sprain, following through with my promise is an easy decision.
Prediction - Broncos win, 17-10.
Titans (6-5) at Bills (5-6):
Earlier this season with the way the Bills were tearing it up with an opportunistic defense and Fred Jackson beast mode, I probably would've taken Buffalo, especially with how poorly Chris Johnson was doing for the Titans. Fast forward to now and Buffalo has plummeted, losing their last four contests. The solid play of Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback for Tennessee and the fact that I believe Johnson might have finally turned the corner makes it easy to take the Titans in this one.
Prediction - Titans win, 23-17.
Chiefs (4-7) at Bears (7-4):
This one could be interesting if former Bears quarterback Kyle Orton starts for Kansas City. Caleb Hanie will be under center again for Chicago in place of the injured Jay Cutler. The Bears are looking great defensively with Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher too. The Chiefs' chances aren't good. If Tyler Palko plays, Kansas City won't be able to do anything on offense, and if Orton goes, they'll likely have to limit their play calls to what Orton has been able to pick up of their system in such a limited time. And if the unsteady quarterback situation in KC wasn't making things grim enough, the injuries to key guys like running back Jamaal Charles and safety Eric Berry all but seals KC's fate.
Prediction - Bears win, 20-10.
Ravens (8-3) at Browns (4-7):
This one won't be much of a contest. The Brownies' offense is average at best, and the Ravens have proven that their defense is just as nasty even without Ray Lewis in the lineup. In a battle between Cleveland's very vanilla offense and Baltimore's tenacious defense, Baltimore wins every time.
Prediction - Ravens win, 27-13.
Cowboys (7-4) at Cardinals (4-7):
Despite Beanie Wells's effectiveness, I don't feel like the Cardinals will be able to stay in this one unless wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald goes into beast mode; something I don't see happening against a Rob Ryan-coached defense. If Tony Romo continues his hot play and doesn't turn the ball over, Jerry Jones's 'Boys should win this one handily.
Prediction - Cowboys win, 31-17.
Packers (11-0) at Giants (6-5):
I thought the Giants might have been the team to stop the Packers juggernaut. However, the lack of any G-Men pass rush as of late turns this into another borderline scrimmage game for league MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers and the Pack Attack.
Prediction - Packers win, 38-21.
Rams (2-9) at 49ers (9-2):
After how Sam Bradford and the Rams surprised last season, I was looking forward to these two matching up twice again this year. However, after taking one step foward last year, this year they've taken about four steps back. I can't explain Bradford's struggles outside of him not having quality targets to throw to. I feel sorry for Steven Jackson, because with the Rams' passing game struggling so much, he looks to be in for some big hits courtesy of Patrick Willis and company come Sunday.
Prediction - 49ers win, 23-10.
Lions (7-4) at Saints (8-3):
This one could still be a fun one to watch, but that's only if you're a Saints fan. With Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh suspended for the next two games for what can only be called dirty play, Drew Brees has got to be smiling from ear to ear. Look for Brees to decimate a poor Detroit secondary as the Saints march all over Detroit in front of "Who Dat" nation.
Prediction - Saints win, 34-17.
Chargers (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8):
I don't really know what to say about these two teams. Jacksonville is in complete organizational disarray after firing head coach Jack Del Rio. They've gone with rookie Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, which means all the pressure falls on workhorse running back Maurice-Jones Drew. The Jags' free agent acquisitions have improved their pass defense immensely, and with how bad Philip Rivers has been for the Bolts this season, this is an easy pick indeed.
Prediction - Jaguars win, 17-13.
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