Ed writes:
What you are really saying is that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump at the polls because she is more popular than Trump is. More people want her to become President. That is all you are saying.
But you did not make the argument until challenged in the comments. You hid it behind all this pseudo-sophisticated Electoral College nonsense.
It’s not pseudo-sophisticated, and it’s not nonsense. The Electoral College is all that matters. Everything else is crap. Trump is the most toxic Presidential candidate in recent memory. Over half of Republicans say either they are uncertain he would be a good President or they say he will be a lousy President. Fully 40% of Republicans say Trump will be a lousy President. 40%!
Hillary will win all of the battleground states, well, at least if the election were held today. She will win Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and even North Carolina. Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina have gotten much more liberal in 20 years. Ohio and Pennsylvania are flat, but they lean ~3-4 points Dem. Florida is flat, but she will win there. A Republican barely won the governor’s race recently despite spending a mountain of money.
Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, have all gotten quite a bit more liberal in the last 20 years.
Not one single battleground state is getting more conservative over the last 20 years. Not one!
Hillary will not turn any red states though. At best, she could win Indiana and Arizona.
This is the longterm trend, and it will not be reversed.
Black turnout will be the same as 2012. Women despise Trump. Trump will win no more than 15-20% of Hispanics and maybe less than that. He has to win 66% of the White vote, and he might not even win 60%. His gains with working class Whites will be wiped out because Whites with some college hate him. Hardly any working class Democrats support him. Yes, working class Whites support him, but those people have been backing Republicans for a long time.
At least as of right now, he can’t win. She has 347 electoral votes. Total blowout. The election is over and it hasn’t even started yet.
Nate Silver puts Trump’s chance at winning at 2%. I would say that is optimistic.
Look at who the bookies are betting for. These people are willing to lay down their money to bet who wins. If Hillary wins, you will get a 33% return on your money. If Trump wins, you will get 150% return. The betters are favoring Hillary by a large margin.
