So the Blue Jays have been pretty darn hot over the last few weeks. They’ve found the .500 mark again, they can see the Wildcard and Division leaders in their sights and they believe that they have a chance to make something happen.
The question becomes, what can the Blue Jays do over the next stretch to stay in contention and make the climb in the standings?
I took a look at the 50 games coming up, starting with the 4 game series in Boston June 27-30.
- 23 of the 50 games starting that day will be played in Toronto, 27 on the road.
- 20 of those games will be played against AL East opponents with all 4 teams present on the schedule.
- 6 of those games will be against National League teams (Houston Astros, LA Dodgers) at home.
- There will also be 7 games against the Oakland A’s, 4 against the Detroit Tigers and 4 against the LA Angels who have played poorly this season but are full of talent.
The point is, the next 50 games are not going to be easy. The Blue Jays are not lining up against scrub teams who are looking to trade the entire roster by the July 31 deadline.
The starting pitching will have to continue to work into the 6th and 7th innings on a regular basis. The pitch counts will have to stay in control and injuries will have to be avoided (knock on wood). If Morrow comes back, Chien-Ming Wang can stay serviceable and consistent and Johnson, Dickey and Buehrle can win more than they lose – things will look optimistic.
The bullpen may not be able to stay as red hot as they are right now, but they do need to continue to strand inherited runners, throw strikes, get through 
The line-up needs to continue to produce! Adam Lind has been hotter than a pistol and while I believe that he can finish this season with 20-25 home runs and 75-85 rbi, I don’t expect home to hit .330 all season, so he will need help. Jose Reyes will be back and healthy and he will need to get on base, steal bases, go 1st to 3rd on short singles, score from 2nd when nobody else could and generally just be awesome.
Also, Jose Bautista needs to stop complaining about close pitches, give himself a chance to succeed and hit the ball hard, the home runs and doubles and rbi need to start adding up. Edwin Encarnacion needs to help Joey Bats out by staying consistent behind him and getting him pitches to hit, his home runs will get to 45 I think and the rbi number could reach 120 by the end of 162 games. That’s if Melky, Colby, JP, Brett and Emilio can get on base once in a while and stay there to be driven in.
To win consistently I think that the team has to average 4.75 runs per game.
Now, I’m optimistic about this team and what they can do when they are firing on all cylinders. And optimistically I could see the Blue Jays cashing in a 30 and 20 record. Anything better than that would be fantastic. If they can go 35 and 15 I would be very happy!
A 30 and 20 run would give them 68-70 wins (depending on these last 2 games in Tampa) with 35 games left which means that they would have to go 20-15 in the last stretch to get to 90 wins.
Is it impossible? No.
Does it mean that the Blue Jays have to play great baseball day in and day out? Yes.
Would it be great to see Toronto in the playoff hunt at the end of August? You better believe it!
Cross your fingers kids, it could happen.
Go Jays Go!
