Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is projected to pull in a slightly disappointing opening (between $100m-$140m) when it comes out in three weeks, but that information is coming from the same tracking agencies who were absolutely wrong about Deadpool. So….
Pre-release ticket tracking has been in the toilet for a while now, as I previously covered in more detail (here and here). Box office projections from tracking agencies are provided to the studios as a measurement of the effectiveness of a film’s marketing campaign. It gives the studio a rough idea of where they might need to devote more ad dollars. These projections are not meant to be some kind of weather forecast we can all judge our day by, yet that’s how we treat them.
As one studio distribution president told Deadline, “Since there are no secrets anymore, you also have the press writing and putting pressure on the studios on what the film is supposed to do. But the press doesn’t understand at times that we didn’t get disappointed from an economic point of view. It’s only a disappointment based on f***ing tracking, and the tracking is a f***ing disaster.”
The leading tracking agencies all fail to properly measure social media engagement. On top of that, as more and more movies are released outside of traditional release windows and make the type of money very few movies have made before the tracking agencies are left with few truly worthwhile historical comparisons. For example, of course they didn’t know how much Star Wars: The Force Awakens was going to make because no movie had ever done that before.
That all being said, sometimes the tracking agencies actually get it right, and even when they get it wrong it’s not always because they underestimated. There are several box office bombs which the tracking agencies were more optimistic about.
The following is a list of some of the more notorious projections vs. actual opening weekends for big budget movies since 2013, listed in the order in which they were released. Intermixed throughout the list is the occasional example of when the tracking agencies were actually fairly spot-on:
2013
Iron Man 3
“Based on tracking, Iron Man 3 could open between $135 million and $145 million in North America.” –THR
Actual Opening: $174.1 million
Man of Steel
“Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures are suggesting a domestic debut of $75 million-plus. Internally, a number in the $85 million to $90 million range is being thrown about.”-THR
Actual Opening: $116.6 million
World War Z
Paramount is predicting an opening in the $40 million to $45 million, but more bullish box office observers with access to tracking believe the movie could open in the $50 million range. –THR
Actual Opening: $66.4m
Pacific Rim
Variety reported that early tracking of Pacific Rim suggests it will only take in about $30 opening weekend. –Amog
Actual Opening: $37.2m
The Wolverine
“Pre-release tracking shows the movie opening in the $65 million-plus range domestically.”-THR
Actual Opening: $53.1 million
Gravity
In pre-release tracking overseen by THR, Alfonso Cuarón’s 3-D space film is poised to gross between $35 million and $40 million domestically this weekend – CheatSheet
Actual Opening: $55.7 million
Thor: The Dark World
“The sequel is pacing to open north of $75 million, according to rival studios with access to tracking.” –THR
Actual Opening: $85.7 million
2014
Captain America: Winter Soldier
“Box-office observers believe the sequel will open north of $80 million domestically. More bullish forecasters believe it will hit $85 million.”-THR
Actual Opening: $95 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
“Heading into the weekend, pre-release tracking suggested the Sony tentpole might cross $95 million and best the opening of recent blockbuster Captain America: The Winter Soldier.” –THR
Actual Opening: $91.6 million
Going into the weekend, “Godzilla” was said to be on pace to earn between $65 million to $70 million – Variety
Actual Opening: $93.1m
X-Men: Days of Future Past
“Prerelease tracking indicates it will cross $100 million over the long Memorial Day weekend, with more bullish observers suggesting $125 million. Fox is being more cautious in its projections, saying $95 million to $100 million.” –THR
Actual Opening: $90.8 million for the 3-day weekend, $110.5m for the 4-day Holiday
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Those with access to tracking suggest the fourth installment in the action franchise will hit or cross $100 million in its North American debut – THR
Actual Opening: $100m
Lucy
Pre-release tracking suggests Lucy will race past $30 million in its debut — many think it will cross $35 million – THR
Actual Opening: $43.8m
Guardians of the Galaxy
“Guardians of the Galaxy is expected to open to at least $65 million this weekend. Some believe it has a shot at approaching, or crossing, $70 million.”-THR
Actual Opening: $94.3 million
Interstellar
“Most tracking services have Interstellar and Big Hero 6 grossing between $50 million and $55 million for the three-day weekend.” –THR
Actual Opening for Interstellar: $47.5 million
To be fair, they were pretty much spot-on for Big Hero 6, which debuted to $56.2m.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 1
“The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1” is heading for an opening weekend north of $130 million – TheWrap
Actual Opening: $121.8m
2015
American Sniper
American Sniper is currently on pace to open with $35 million, according to pre-release tracking. –Wrap
Actual Opening: $89m
Cinderella
Thanks to females of all ages, Kenneth Branagh’s Cinderella could dance past $65 million in its North American debut in a needed boost for the box office. –THR
Actual Opening: $67m
Furious 7
“Furious 7 — the final film from the late Paul Walker — is expected to gross $115 million or more” –THR
Actual Opening: $147.1 million
Avengers: Age of Ultron
“Most are betting that Age of Ultron will launch to $210 million or better for the weekend, setting a new threshold for how high a film can open (one tracking service even has it at $224 million).” –THR
Actual Opening: $191.2 millionJurassic World
“Opening 22 years after Steven Spielberg’s first Jurassic Park stomped into theaters, the sequel is tracking to open to $125 million or higher.” –THR
Actual Opening: $208.8 million
Pitch Perfect 2
Tracking suggests both Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road will open in the $40 million range, but many believe Perfect 2 could exceed expectations – THR
Actual Opening for Pitch Perfect 2: $69m
They were right about Mad Max, though. It opened with $45m.
Ant-Man
“Tracking services have [Ant-Man] debuting in the $55 million-$65 million range, but may believe it will come in on the high end, considering Marvel’s track record.” –THR
Actual Opening: $57.2 millionFantastic Four
“Fantastic Four is expected to win the weekend with a debut of $40 million or more.” –THR
Actual Opening: $25.6 million
Pan
“Two of the major tracking services have Pan debuting at $21 million to $22 million, while a third has it opening between $26 million and $31 million.” –THR
Actual Opening: $15.3 million
Spectre
“While Sony is predicting a more conservative opening around $65 million, other box office tracking services are expecting a debut as high as $85 million.” –EW
Actual Opening: $70.4 million
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 2
“Mockingjay – Part 2 is heading for an opening weekend north of $125 million.” –Wrap
Actual Opening: $102.6 million
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
“Tacking services project somewhere between $185 million and $210 million, with some of the most optimistic sources approaching $300 million. Within Disney, the predictions are apparently a little bit lower, closer to $170 million.” –SlashFilm
Actual Opening: $247.9 million
2016
Deadpool
“The Merc With A Mouth is predicted to bring in between $60 and $70 million, with some estimates going as high as $75 million.” –TrackingBoard
Actual Opening: $132.4 million
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
“The film is currently looking at snagging somewhere between $100-$140 million in its opening weekend.” –SlashFilm
Actual Opening: We’ll have to wait to find out
