The freakin' Oscars are tonight. I've got to get my picks out asap. So, here they are [spoiler alert: I'm predicting a huge night for La La Land, aka, Academy voter catnip]:
ABOVE THE LINE CATEGORIES Best PictureWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land (I actually think La La Land truly is worthy here, despite the inevitable post-hype pushback)
Should Have Been Nominated: Sing Street
Best DirectorWill Win: Damien Chazelle
Should Win: Damien Chazelle
Should Have Been Nominated: David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water
Best ActorWill Win: Denzel Washington
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Garfield, not for Hacksaw Ridge but instead for Silence
Best ActressWill Win: Amy Adams....what do you mean she's not nominated? Well, screw this category then. Fine. Emma Stone's clearly going to win.
Should Win: Amy Ad...wait. Not nominated. Right. Then, I actually like Stone's performance the best. Sorry Natalie Portman. I am not a Jackie fan.
Should Have Been Nominated: Probably know where I am going with this, but Amy Adams
Best Supporting ActorWill Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Michael Shannon just because his acceptance speech would probably be so weirdly intense
Should Have Been Nominated: John Goodman for 10 Cloverfield Lane
Best Supporting ActressWill Win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Viola Davis. Honestly, this category is total bullshit. Again. Alicia Vikander had no business winning last year for what was a lead role, not supporting, and history will repeat itself this year with Viola winning a supporting award for a (truly amazing) lead performance. It's Oscar gerrymandering, I tells ya'.
Should Have Been Nominated: Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Black Mirror's "San Junipero." Wait. That's not actually a movie, and it didn't play in theater? So what! If O.J.: Made in America can be nominated for an Oscar it'll likely win then why not just run "San Junipero" in some independent movie theaters and pretend it's a standalone movie before premiering it on Netflix. I'd nominate Mbatha-Raw in a heartbeat after that. Hell, I would have nominated it for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay and so on and so on.
Best Original ScreenplayWill Win: Manchester By the Sea
Should Win: Manchester By the Sea
Should Have Been Nominated: See what I said above about "San Junipero."
Best Adapted ScreenplayWill Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: Deadpool just because of the inherent humor of a movie with such juvenile jokes being nominated for Oscar. Also, seriously, the Academy could have used the hook of "Come see if Deadpool wins...anything. Like anything at all. Even just one nomination would give us something to work with. We. Could. Not. Be. More. Desperate. For. Ratings!"
Best Animated FilmWill Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Zootopia
Should Have Been Nominated: Norm of the North just so everyone could say, "What the hell is that?" Seriously, of those not nominated, Finding Dory is likely most worthy.
Best Documentary FeatureWill Win: O.J.: Made in America
Should Win: Fire at Sea
Should Have Been Nominated: Weiner, Zero Days and so many others
Best Foreign Language FilmWill Win: The Salesman
Should Win: Toni Erdmann
BELOW THE LINE CATEGORIES Best CinematographyWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: Silence
Best Production DesignWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: Hail, Caesar
Best Visual EffectsWill Win: Jungle Book
Should Win: Jungle Book
Should Have Been Nominated: Fantastic Beasts (less well publicized than Jungle Book is the fact that the majority of Fantastic Beasts was also just human actors on a blue screen set).
Best Costume DesignWill Win: Jackie
Should Win: Fantastic Beasts
Best Makeup and HairstylingWill Win: Suicide Squad
Should Win: Literally anything else. Just pull the name of any blockbuster out of a hat and give the Oscar to that instead of Suicide Squad. I will not live in a world in which Suicide Squad is an Oscar-winning movie.
Best Original ScoreWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: With all due respect to Arrival and Jackie (and the other two less-worthy nominees), La La Land truly does deserve to win
Best Original SongWill Win: "City of Stars"
Should Win: "How Far I"ll Go" because Lin Manuel-Miranda will have his EGOT, dammit. Maybe not today, but some day.
Best Sound EditingWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound MixingWill Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
SHORT FILM CATEGORIES Best Documentary ShortWill Win: The White Helmets
Should Win: The White Helmets
Best Animated ShortWill Win: Piper (aka, the Pixar one which played before Finding Dory)
Should Win: Piper (the other four nominees leave a lot to be desired)
Best Live Action ShortWill Win: "Ennemis Interieurs" (a chilling depiction of a French-Algerian man's citizenship test quickly veering into New Age McCarthysim with Muslim in place of Communism)
Should Win: "La Femme et le TGV" (a light, but lovely story of an old French baker who finds a renewed purpose in her life after becoming pen pals with the man she believes to be the engineer of the train which passes her house two times a day)
Conclusion: I'm predicting La La Land will win 9 of its 14 nominations. Prove me wrong, Oscars. Prove me wrong.