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Taking the class Introduction to Future Studies from the University of Houston has been one of the most rewarding educational experiences I have been a part of. I absorbed a significant amount of practical knowledge about strategic foresight, added many new tools to my repertoire of problem solving heuristics, and deepened my understanding of change, the future, and forecasting. I had previously read many books on futures methods, but my comprehension and retention of the material was moderate. Having spent fourteen weeks reading, studying, discussing, thinking, and applying futures techniques to the domain of economic inequality I have become much more familiar with this domain and the futures methodology. The benefits of the class and curriculum are large and emergent. The knowledge gained about the futures methods, the knowledge gained about the domain, and the knowledge gained about one’s self and others synergizes to heighten and deepen the mastery of these knowledge sets, such that the whole experience transcends the sum of the parts.
Encountering the field, its history, concept and terminology was very fun. I especially enjoyed studying the Genealogical Map of the Ecology of Futures Thought, and thinking about the imagery of science fiction. My wife and I watched both 2001: A Space Odyssey and early silent sci-fi classic Metropolis, the former a movie my wife had never seen and the latter neither of us had been even heard of. We were enthralled. Meeting and hearing futurist Josh Calder talk about his connection to futures through particular science-fiction movies was incredibly motivating. I am also about half way through Edward Bellamy’s Looking Backward, reading inspired by the class, and I intend to continue this new focus of interest, planning to tackle Daniel Bell’s The Coming of Post-Industrial Society next.
During the week that we covered systems thinking it was mentioned many times that understanding this approach instilled a revolutionary personal outlook on situations, from which there is no turning back. I agree with this. Before this survey I had a basic understanding of systems theory, but I had not been exposed to the details as presented by the Way of Systems. Now I know how to recognize systems archetypes, the typical problems that can arise, and strategies for influencing systems. I also now have the basic tools for mapping systems on my own, using the interactions of negative and positive feedback loops, with an understanding of conflicting incentives and delayed information. Systems thinking is something that I intend to spend more time doing.
I had no idea that there were so many theories of social change, although I am not too surprised considering the difficulty of categorizing human social interactions in any precise scientific fashion. I gained familiarity with theories that explain the shape of social change like Progress, Development, Cycle, and Conflict, plus theories that explain social change in terms of drivers such as Technology, Ideas/Culture, Markets, and Power. Ultimately I found the Emergence and Evolution theories of social change to be the most compelling and encapsulating, with their ability to explain the change in terms of creative destruction, punctuated equilibrium, and complex dynamic systems.
Coming into the class I was already quite familiar with baseline forecasting, being a forecaster by trade, with the education and experience that this entails. Future studies gave me a deeper appreciation for thinking about the baseline expectations of a forecast, since most likely future isn’t. The plausible alternative futures are as important to consider, because the realization is likely to be something other than the expectation. For this the tools of EPISTLE, futures wheels to trace implications, creative vivid imagery, and compelling storytelling in order to support scenario analysis, are now valued aspects of my forecasting outlook. Identifying the preferred future and backcasting the steps to realize desired outcomes and influence the path of destiny are also new understandings that I will take with me.
Scanning is a strong element of futures work, and I learned that good scan hits are weak signals that indicate a novel trend, new piece of information, or emerging issue. The weak signal is something that has the ability to change the trajectory of the expected future. These are indicators of forces that have the potential to upend our assumptions and create new scenarios for the future. I found scanning to be the most difficult part of futures, but I think this is because its mastery requires the flywheel effect. It takes a lot of effort to locate good scan hits for beginners, being new to the process, unfamiliar with the best sources, and a novice in the chosen domain. Habit building practice with scanning over time should resolve these challenges because spotting weak signals has advantages in deep domain knowledge and mastery of scanning technique. I intend to practice with scanning journals for other domains that I am interested in.
Before class I had a different understanding of what good leadership was, thinking of it more in terms of efficient management and authority, but now I recognize that leadership is something much more. While managers have the role that puts them in charge of planning, budgeting, organizing, staffing, controlling, and problem solving, leaders are responsible for the direction, vision, strategy, alignment of people, communication, motivation, and inspiration to achieve stretch goals. I also learned that good visions illustrate compelling, audacious, excellent, and novel imagery for a highly desirable future that motivates, energizes, and spurs the passions of others to follow the plan for transformational change. Lasting examples of strong visions are the “I Have a Dream” speech by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and the proclamation from President John F. Kennedy that we would land a man on the moon within the decade.
Strategy translates vision into a plan of action by committing to high level goals which generate specific projects that achieve incremental milestones. Initiatives with concrete objectives are the tactics which advance the strategy. Strategy should be guided by an awareness of internal strengths and weaknesses in conjunction with a scan of the threats and opportunities of the external environment. Strategic planning determines what products to provide, who to provide services to, how to achieve measurable goals, what the unique selling propositions are, and when milestones should be reached.
Understanding change management gives me a better grasp on the principles of guiding change during its realization and the practical realities of transformation. To motivate people and guide them through change it is not enough to have a vision and a strategic plan, these things must be actually implemented and real people will be affected and likely offer resistance to the changes. Leading people through the gap from the old era to the new era requires leaders to give good reasons to change, craft a powerful vision of the new era, build momentum through incremental movements in the new direction and celebration of milestones, maintain effective communication, and establish and keep trust.
I have gained an even stronger respect for the work of futurists, and this has generated a desire in me to aspire to become a Philosopher Futurist more than ever. Thus the most important thing I have learned from Introduction to Future Studies is that I have the potential and tools to transform my own life. The greatest testament to the benefit of futures work, the methods, tools, and process, is the amazing utility and guidance that it can provide to individuals when planning their personal futures. I fully intend to use the knowledge gained from future studies to enlist my wife, then family, friends, associates, and a broadening coalition of supporters, in my quest to become a Philosopher Futurist.
Jared Roy Endicott
