Holidays 2020: Turkey will be the queen of summer?
As many as 30 percent of children whose parents bought holidays in travel agencies will go out in the last two weeks of June. A family of four can save up to over USD 1000 than if it were going on vacation in July or August. Reservations for the 2020 summer season have increased by 10 percent compared to last year. And the average cost of rest - 10 USD. We prefer to go on holidays this summer not to Greece, but to Turkey.
Photo: Fotolia
35% increase in vacation trips with travel agencies (Report of the Polish Chamber of Tourism 'Foreign holidays of Poles 2018′, co-authored by Travelplanet.pl), by mid-May we are observing an increase of approximately 10% in interest in travel agencies' offer.
Considering the very high base from last year, this is a significant increase in the inflow of customers to travel agencies. It is worth remembering, however, that since the Tourist Guarantee Fund came into effect and travel agencies began selling most of the first-minute holiday offers with the Best Price Guarantee, we are dealing with an exceptional increase in early bookings.
According to the PIT report last year, summer sales for 3 or more months before departure were only 5% lower than last minute sales (10 days and less). In 2017, the difference was over 13 percentage points. in favor of last minute.
It is worth remembering that last year we were dealing with fierce price competition of leisure organizers and, as a result, large price reductions of offers sold at the last minute. Still, the difference between last minute and first minute reservations was the smallest in history.
The most popular destinations for the summerIt seems that this season we will be dealing with a fundamental change - the summer leader for many years, Greece, this season ahead of Turkey. According to Travelplanet.pl booking statistics, until mid-May, summer holidays in Turkey (from June 15 to the end of September) reserved 25 percent. travel agency customers. In the same period last year it was less than 20 percent.
Travelplanet.pl statistics include reservations finalized by mid-May
Greece, in turn, fell to 2nd place with just over 21 percent. the percentage of bookings (from over 28% in the 2018 season). The positions of Bulgaria, Spain and Egypt have not changed compared to the popularity rankings for summer 2018 reservations. unstable situation, returns to the favor of tourists and Cyprus, which jumped to the top ten. Albania has dropped one eye, but still holidays in this country are among the cheaper.
The low cost of staying in Croatia in booking statistics is due to the fact that the majority of the offer is sold with own travel - this is the specificity of holidays in this country, booked by Poles.
The consequence of Turkey shifting to the first place in the popularity ranking is also a significant change in the comfort of leisure for tourists. With the unchanged level of 4 * hotel reservations (slightly over 49 percent), holiday reservations clearly increased in the highest five-star comfort (from 23 to 27 percent), while the popularity of 3 * facilities dropped (from 25 to 20 percent). Turkey is considered a country among clients of travel agencies and offers 5 * hotels at the best prices.
The increase in leisure costs is much slower than the increase in wagesLake Geneva, Switzerland Photo: Jarosław Kałucki / TRAVELPLANET.PL
The average cost of holidays - USD 2,485 per person - increased just over 1 percent. because by PLN 30, compared to the same booking period last summer. For comparison - the average wage in the first quarter of 2019 was PLN 4,951 and was over 7% higher than the average pay in the first quarter of 2018.It is worth noting, however, that compared to the average cost of booking from mid-February, which was USD 2,385, the increase in booking from mid-May is 100 USD higher. This indirectly shows the profitability of booking a holiday in the first minute system.
Foreign holidays for a family of four from 1000 USD
How much will a statistical family spend on such a vacation? The calculations depend on the age of the children, the category of the hotel, whether the hotel offers discounts for children at all, etc. Assuming that the discounts are minimal or not at all, the cheapest fall holidays in Bulgaria and Albania - a family of 4 will pay for them 7-8 thousand USD , resting most often in a 4 * hotel and reserving an all inclusive or HB offer. This would be the result of statistics, while the current offers for the school vacation period are the cheapest for a family of 4 (parents plus 2 children in many 7 and 10 years old) in the most frequently chosen standard (flight, 4 * AI hotel) in Spain - just over 5,000. USD for a family and Tunisia - less than 6,000 USD and the most expensive are Italy ( USD 8,500) and Croatia ( 9,600 USD ).
La Palma foto LPLeon / TOURESPANA
For comparison - the same family, if they would like to go on holiday without food and to a hotel of a lower category, will pay for the holiday in total from about 1000 USD for 4 people (Greece, Spain, Italy, Bulgaria)
Trips basically already booked?Reservation dynamics decrease as you get closer to the season. In mid-February it was + 15%, currently it is + 10%. As you can see, the tendency to book your holiday early is permanent. We have been observing a fundamental change in tourists' behavior since 2016, when the Tourist Guarantee Fund was launched, plus offers from tour operators with the Best Price Guarantee, with the option of booking holidays after paying 10-20%. party costs.
Minorca, Spain Photo: Fotolia
Effect? The most popular 5 * hotels in Turkey are already sold by the end of August. There are no reasons to postpone booking holidays well in advance.
Travel agent bankruptcy scenarios are always possible, but in the current situation they are rather theoretical considerations than some real threat. Since the launch of TFG and the extensive sale of first-minute offers, which are actually advanced and not paid, any bankruptcy is of secondary importance to tourists. There is no specter of losing money and, at most, recovering it in the perspective of several months.
Children will leave mainly in June30 percent of children whose parents bought a vacation at travel agencies will go out in the last two weeks of June. The remaining 70 percent - in the 10 weeks of July and August. This is the effect of exceptionally early school holidays, additionally shortened by the prime minister by two days.
Where does this rush come from? In June you can still hunt for much cheaper offers than in the high season. Savings range from several hundred zlotys to even over a thousand zlotys compared to the peak of the season.
Start of school break, preferably in Tunisia and BulgariaBeach in Sousse Photo: Tunisian Tourism Center in Warsaw
In the last two weeks of June, we most often take children to Tunisia (16% of all tourists leaving travel agencies to this country at that time) and Bulgaria (15%), followed by Turkey (13%), followed by Greece and Egypt (12%) Of the six most popular destinations, children are the least likely to go to Spain (10%). In July and August, tourists most often go with children to Turkey and Egypt (about 16%)
A similar phenomenon of intensive trips with children right after the start of the school break can be observed during the winter holidays - in those voivodships where they start in January, you can see an above-average scale of booking trips to the Alps. There is a low season there, in addition to the lower prices of stay, many resorts add a free pass. For school holidays, exploiting this low season gap applies throughout the country.
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