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Electoral College Breakdown

Posted on the 24 October 2012 by Anthonyhymes @TheWrongWing

This politiblog has never really understood the point of the electoral college. Apparently it was put in place by the founding fathers to ensure that there was a barrier, or safe guard, between the people of the United States and their highest office. While it might have been an interesting idea when the population was tiny to prevent a radical from taking over, the USA is now definitely too big to have an electoral college.

path to victory

It just doesn’t add up

The US election apparatus is flawed in many ways. The state by state format disenfranchises voters who know that their state is going to go one way. It would not do anything to vote for Obama in Wyoming, for example, where the Republican candidate would win even if he were a donkey, like this year. It’s the same for Republicans voting in California or New York. In our opinion, the best option would be a true popular vote, measuring each and every vote across the entire country. That is a democracy.

Having expressed this, here’s how the electoral map breaks down for Romney and Obama now that the election is in less than two weeks. Every single pollster in the nation says it’s a dead heat. Statistically, it could go either way, and it comes down to the following battleground states (electoral votes):

  • Virginia (13)
  • Florida (29)
  • New Hampshire (4)
  • Ohio (18)
  • Colorado (9)
  • Nevada (6)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Wisconsin (10)
  • Nevada (6)

There are more routes for Obama to get to the necessary delegates to win the election, with Romney requiring some big wins to get close to the same point. Almost all of the campaign advertising and Super PAC funded efforts have fallen in these states, with other states getting minimal attention.

For the second time in as many elections, the selection of a VP Candidate has proven more of a liability than an asset. Sarah Palin in 2008 sunk John McCain, and Paul Ryan has the same potential for Mitt Romney. Appeasing the Tea Party minions means sacrificing the center, and Paul Ryan’s highly unpopular plan to eliminate Medicare probably will cost Romney Florida. Ryan is also not much help in a heavily-divided Wisconsin whose Democrats have been fighting tirelessly to oust their Republican Governor over the curbs he placed on collective bargaining.

Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, but it looks less likely that he will do it this time again. The last election saw a spike in first time voters, who were motivated by his inspiration. Now that they have had four years of him, they are not buzzing with the same amplitude this time around. He needs to make sure that people vote early and get to the polls. He could carry the state again.

Romney stands a good chance in Nevada, where unemployment is the highest level in the nation. His message of economic stewardship rings well there. This might also be the case in Ohio, who has a 7% unemployment rate, below the national average, but a popular Republican Governor who is trying to take most of the credit for that, even though it is directly thanks to Obama’s bailout that plugged the leak in jobs during the crisis.

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