To see our other box office top 10 breakdowns please go here.
So, here’s what happened this weekend at the domestic box office: X-Men: Days of Future Past reminded us of the increasing importance of the foreign box office by posting a slightly disappointing domestic debut yet still ending up with the biggest worldwide bow in 20th Century Fox’s 80-year history. Elsewhere, Godzilla stumbled badly, and Adam Sandler’s Blended bombed. Let’s break it down:
The totals below are for the 3-day Fri-Sun weekend. This list will be updated with the 4-day Memorial Day weekend totals when they become available.
Top 10 Estimated Domestic Totals (5/23-5/25)
1. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Opening Weekend)
- Opening Weekend Gross=$90 million
- Budget=$210-240 million
Foreign: Opening pretty much everywhere around the world, Days of Future Past posted an astounding foreign total $171 million making for a worldwide debut of $261.7 million.
Back in 2006, X-Men: The Last Stand did exactly what Days of Future Past just did: it opened pretty much everywhere around the world during the Memorial Day weekend of May. It posted a then-astonishing $203 million worldwide debut, $103 million of which came domestically. Days of Future Past almost equaled that without any help from the domestic market, debuting with a truly amazing $171 million overseas and rising to more than $260 million worldwide. That’s the biggest worldwide debut in 20th Century Fox’s history, even bigger than Avatar, although it’s not really a fair comparison because it’s hard to know how many of their films opened in as many as countries simultaneously as Days of Future Past. Moreover, because we can’t really adjust foreign grosses for ticket price inflation the way we can with domestic it’s hard to know how Last Stand‘s performance would have stacked up given a similar boost from 3D and IMAX ticket sales. Either way, it is a reminder of just how much the global box office landscape has changed since just 2006 that back then Last Stand would take half of its worldwide debut from overseas and half at home whereas only around a third of Days of Future Past‘s debut is attributable to the domestic market.
In fact, a $90 million domestic debut is the weakest of the summer’s big blockbusters, a tad lower than Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($95 million), Godzilla ($93 million), and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($92 million). Granted, with the Memorial Day weekend Days of Future Past is projected to end with a 4-day debut around $110 million, a bigger 4-day total than either of those films who, then again, didn’t have the benefit of opening over a holiday. The fairer comparison is to other recent Memorial Day releases, and other than Hangover 3 Days of Future Past trails all of them by between $7-24 million, i.e., Pirates of the Caribbean 3, X-Men: The Last Stand, Indiana Jones 4, and Fast & Furious 6.
However, when you make $171 million in one weekend internationally you can live with opening a tad below recent Memorial Day hits. The problem, as expertly analyzed and argued by Forbe’s Scott Mendelson, no other film franchise in Hollywood is as front-loaded as X-Men other than the final Twilight and Harry Potter films. It is a franchise which plays to its base in the opening weekend, and then seriously declines after that, regardless of word of mouth:
“The curious thing about the franchise, and the reason why even a much-loved X-Men: Days of Future Past may not send the series that much higher at the box office, is its consistent front-loading. Fans liked X-Men and The Wolverine, loved X2 and X-Men: First Class, and hated X-Men: The Last Stand and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, and yet not a single one of these films earned even 3x their respective Fri-Sun opening weekends at the domestic box office.” [Forbes]
So, will Days of Future Past have enough juice left after this weekend to topple the current franchise highs of $234 million domestic/$459 million worldwide, both set by X-Men: The Last Stand? Probably, but you need only look at Godzilla to see how quickly you can fall.
2. Godzilla
- Weekend Gross=$31.4 million
- Total Gross to Date=$148.7 million
- Budget=$160 million
Foreign: Currently, it has an international gross of $166 million for a worldwide total of $315.3 million.
Misleading advertising both giveth and taketh away. Aiming not to repeat the mistakes of Pacific Rim, Godzilla was sold more like a World War Z-esque disaster film than a monster movie, choosing to heavily emphasize Bryan Cranston’s fiery performance in the process. The problem is Cranston is a minor part of the movie, and despite director Gareth Edwards’ Steven Spielberg mimicry in the area of suspense, focus on character, and delayed gratification with the money shots Godzilla is still a monster movie. So, while it opened with an astonishing $93 million last weekend it has plunged a very bad 66% this weekend. That’s almost X-Men Origins: Wolverine (69%) bad. In fact, the 1998 version we all hate in favor of this new one? It only dropped 59% in its second weekend. To be fair, it was playing against the likes of Hope Floats and Deep Impact that weekend; not anything remotely similar to the level of X-Men: Days of Future Past.
In fact, it is fair to re-examine just why it is that the 1998 Godzilla was considered such a failure while the current version is such a success. It has little to do with actual dollars and cents, and everything to do with expectations. It sounds impressive to say that the 2014 Godzilla has already passed the $136 million the 1998 version grossed domestically, but it’s ultimately meaningless. If you adjust for ticket inflation, they both have nearly identical 10-day domestic totals ($145 million for the ’98 film, $149 million for the 2014 film). However, the 1998 Godzilla was director Roland Emmerich’s first film after Independence Day, which grossed an astonishing $306 million domestic, $817 million worldwide, keeping in mind that was in 1996. Event at current ticket prices, Emmerich’s Godzilla would have come nowhere near those totals. Plus, a year prior to Godzilla Spielberg’s Jurassic Park: The Lost World had grossed $229 million domestic, $618 million worldwide, and the Jurassic Park dinosaur designs were an obvious influence on Emmerich’s version of Godzilla.
Jump ahead to today and the only recent title to which we can compare the new Godzilla is last year’s Pacific Rim, a notorious box office disappointment which Godzilla is beating pretty thoroughly, although Pacific Rim’s second weekend drop was just 57%. Plus, Godzilla‘s director, Gareth Edwards, only has a self-produced indie (Monsters) to his name. The fact that his film is now basically doing just as good as Emmerich’s is a victory, cause for Disney to steal him away to direct a new Star Wars spin-off for 2016, whereas back in ’98 such a performance was a travesty even though that film turned a profit at the box office ($360 million worldwide on a budget of $130 million).
3. Blended (Opening Weekend)
- Weekend Gross=$14.2 million
- Budget=$40 million
Foreign: $2.1 million for a worldwide debut of $16.3 million
Last July, Adam Sandler’s Grown-Ups 2 stunned many when it opened with nearly $43 million, ultimately ending up with $133 million domestic/$113 million foreign for a worldwide total of $246 million, pretty great for a movie which cost $80 million to produce. It definitely complicated things for those who figured audiences had finally tired of Adam Sandler based off of recent failures like Jack and Jill (which scored $149.6 million worldwide, failing to double its $79 budget) and That’s My Boy ($57.7 million worldwide on a $70 million budget). Sandler appeared to be sliding toward the type of stars whose films people wait to rent rather than go to see (looking at you, Jim Carrey). However, after Grown-Ups 2 Sandler Blended, another team-up with Drew Berrymore, looked less like the desperate attempts of a fading star to bank on nostalgia and more like the return of a triumphant king. That is, of course, until we all finally got a look at the trailers for Blended, which presented a premise so asinine they might have called the film “The Studio Unwittingly Funded the Vacation Adam Sandler Wanted to Take to Africa.” Industry trades began reporting just how poorly pre-release ticket tracking was for Blended, and as of this past Thursday THR was saying a debut in the $30 million range was best-case scenario. So, does that mean making almost exactly half that much is definitely worst-case scenario?
Grown-Ups 2 was an ensemble comedy and, crucially, a sequel to a financially successful film, and it performed as such, boosted by perfectly timed release delivering live-action family-friendly entertainment in a summer overrun by action, comic books, and animation. Blended is dependent upon nostalgia for Sandler/Berrymore prior hits The Wedding Singer ($123 million worldwide on a $18 million budget) and 50 First Dates ($196 million worldwide on a $75 million budget), released as rom-com counter-programming to Days of Future Past. The result is an opening just barely better than That’s My Boy‘s $13 million in 2012. Adam Sandler movies which open this low are usually is rare dramatic experiments (i.e., Spanglish, Reign Over Me); not a romantic comedy with Drew Berrymore.
4. Neighbors
- Weekend Gross=$13.9 million
- Total Gross to Date=$113.6 million
- Budget=$18 million
Foreign: Currently, it has an international gross of $67.4 million for a worldwide total of $181 million.
Two years ago, Ted was the big surprising R-rated comedy hit, ending up with $218 million domestic. Thus far, Neighbors has been trailing just behind Ted’s rate (i.e., opening weekend, second weekend hold, etc.). Now, Ted‘s creator Seth MacFarlane delivering his R-rated comedy A Million Ways to Die in the West next weekend. Ah, who cares. Neighbors was probably in instant profit after its opening weekend. However, it is odd how it hasn’t really caught on nearly as much overseas where prior R-rated comedies like The Hangover sequels and Ted were much bigger hits than they were at home. Then again, the fact that Seth Rogen and Zac Efron had to explain the concept of a college fraternity to TV host Graham Norton while promoting the film in the UK might point to at least one potential cultural barrier.
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
- Weekend Gross=$7.8 million
- Total Gross to Date=$184.9 million
- Budget=$200-250 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $489 million making for a worldwide total of $673.9 million
This was a 54% drop for Amazing-Spider Man 2 from last weekend, and is now the third weekend in a row in which it has declined by more than 50%. It now sits at $184.9 million after 24 days. As a point of comparison, Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s opening weekend was almost identical to ASM 2‘s, and after its first 24 days it had reached $225 millions, adding just a little over $25 million from that point forward. As of right now, 38% of Winter Soldier‘s total domestic gross came from its opening weekend. ASM 2 will likely end with a domestic total hovering right around $200 million meaning nearly half of its domestic gross will have come from its opening weekend.
It’s tempting to see that as an indictment of the movie, which is the worst-reviewed in franchise history and certainly has earned the ire of the hardcore fans. After all, everyone seemed to like Winter Soldier so much more, and look at how much better it did at the box office. However, Winter Soldier also came out in early April, and never faced any serious competition until ASM 2 came out. ASM 2, on the other hand, has had to deal with Neighbors, Godzilla, and now X-Men: Days of Future Past in consecutive weekends, the first two of which performed massively above expectations. Bad word of mouth for ASM 2 has certainly been a factor in that, but if you look at fan ratings on IMDB and RottenTomatoes ASM 2 actually scores on par with every prior Spider-Man film other than Spider-Man 3 which everyone seemed to hate, critic and fan alike. So, it’s hard to get a read on how much of this box office decline is attributable to competition or word of mouth when in reality it’s probably a combination of the two.
Plus, while disappointing stateside ASM 2 is still killing it overseas, with its total foreign gross just south of $500 million passing all prior Spider-Man films other than Spider-Man 3 in that department.
6. A Million Dollar Arm
- Weekend Gross=$7 million
- Total Gross to Date=$20.6 million
- Budget=$25 million
Foreign: Less than $1 million in foreign gross from very, very limited release.
Among recent baseball movies, 42 set the ceiling with its domestic gross of $95 million while Trouble with the Curve set the floor with its disappointing total domestic gross of $35 million. A Million Dollar Arm is nowhere near that ceiling, instead threatening to set a new floor, currently standing with a remarkably similar 10-day total to Trouble with the Curve‘s $23 million. On the plus side, A Million Dollar Arm did post a strong hold of 36% this weekend, ever so slightly better than the 40% hold Curve enjoyed during its second weekend.
7. The Other Woman
- Weekend Gross=$3.6 million
- Total Gross to Date=$77.7 million
- Budget=$40 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $79.3 million making for a worldwide total of $157 million
Just for the heck of it, let’s look at Cameron Diaz’ last big comedy: 2011′s Bad Teacher -
- Opening Weekend: $31 million Bad Teacher vs. $25 million The Other Woman
- Domestic Gross: $100 million Bad Teacher vs. $77.7 million The Other Woman
- Worldwide Gross: $216.1 million Bad Teacher vs. $157 million The Other Woman.
Bad Teacher did all of that while costing exactly half the amount of money to make, $20 million for Bad Teacher, $40 million for The Other Woman. Let’s see how much longer Other Woman’s run will last.
8. Rio 2
- Weekend Gross=$2.5 million
- Total Gross to Date=$121.5 million
- Budget=$103 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $319.9 million making for a worldwide total of $441.4 million
As the only real animated film out since its release, not counting the glaringly direct-to-video-esque The Legend of Oz, Rio 2 has hung on in the top 10 for 7 weekends. It will end with a domestic gross $10-15 million lower than the first Rio‘s $143 million. The next major animated film doesn’t drop until How to Train Your Dragon 2 debuts in mid-June (6/13 to be exact).
9. Chef
- Weekend Gross=$2.2 million
- Total Gross to Date=$3.5 million
- Budget=They’re not telling
Foreign: No official foreign box office information yet.
Jon Favreau has moved on from his days of directing Robert Downey, Jr. in Iron Man, but he made some notable friends along the way, recruiting Downey, Jr. and Scarlett Johansson to make appearances in Chef, his indie film in which he stars as a chef who loses his restaurant job starts up a food truck. Sofia Vergara, John Leguizamo, and Dustin Hoffman are also around, and after playing in limited release for the last two weeks Chef upped its theater total to just south of 500 this weekend, allowing it to sneak into the top 10. The strong reviews, as indicated by the 87% RottenTomatoes rating, probably helped.
10. Heaven is for Real
- Weekend Gross=$1.9 million
- Total Gross to Date=$85.7 million
- Budget=$12 million
Foreign: A current foreign gross of $2.4 million for a worldwide total of $88.2 million.
What Happened Outside of the Top 10?
Who Fell Out of the Top 10?: Captain America: The Winter Soldier (#8 to #11), Legend of Oz: Dorothy’s Return (#9 to #18), and Mom’s Night Out (#10 to #13). The Winter Soldier exits the top 10 with a total domestic gross of $253.5 million.
What’s Up Next?: Angelina Jolie goes evil witch in Disney’s Maleficent (5/30), which is clearly hoping for more Snow White & The Huntsman than Mirror Mirror at the box office. Going for an entirely different target demographic is Seth MacFarlane’s live-action debut in the bawdy, R-rated western comedy A Million Ways to Die in the West (5/30). If you live somewhere hip you might also catch limited showings of James McAvoy’s Filthy (5/30). and the Jesse Eisenberg indie thriller Night Moves (5/30).
