In the days leading up to the release of Star Trek Beyond, Paramount announced a sequel was already in development, and I wrote an article asking exactly how much Beyond would need to gross to actually turn that promised sequel into a reality. After all, announcing a sequel in the days before a new movie comes out is usually just theater attendance-boosting showmanship, easily walked back if the audience doesn't actually show up in sufficient numbers. Many a sequel script has been started and then never finished or at least finished but never filmed in situations like this. So, for Star Trek 4 to avoid that fate and instead turn into an actual slamdunk we-made-enough-profit-to-justify-another-movie decision Beyond probably needs to hit somewhere in the $400m-$450m range worldwide. That is, of course, unless Paramount is willing to make another Star Trek despite taking a loss on its most recent one.
Well, it's three weeks later. Where do we stand on those chances for Star Trek 4 now?
Short answer: Um, ask again in a month.
Long answer: It's not looking too hot right now, and that's mostly because Beyond has been wiped out by Jason Bourne and Suicide Squad domestically and hasn't hit several key foreign markets yet.
STAR TREK BEYOND WORLDWIDE AS OF 8/9/16 - AFTER 3 WEEKENDS OF RELEASE
DOMESTIC At the box office, it's been a real shitshow all summer for live-action blockbusters, with the industry facing a rather stark and very concerning audience erosion, particularly as it relates to sequels/reboots/revivals. July, in particular, saw disappointing returns for Legend of Tarzan, Ghostbusters and Beyond. Jason Bourne isn't quite performing up to franchise standards, but Universal kept the budget low enough ($120m) for a so-so performance to be considered a win. Paramount and its $185m budget for Beyond clearly didn't get the memo.
As such, Beyond's domestic performance ($128m after 3 weekends off of a $59m opening) is pretty much par for the course this summer, where all of the box office results would maybe look just a little better if the involved films hadn't cost so dang much to make. But the most startling development is the way Beyond is tanking in comparison to the prior J.J. Abrams Star Trek films, with Abrams still attached to Beyond as a producer despite yielding the director's chair to Justin Lin. Star Trek and Into Darkness each posted $200m+ domestic totals in the end, and were in the $180m area after 3 weekends. Star Trek did that through especially fantastic word of mouth. Beyond...well, not so much.
You might be looking at that and thinking, "But I saw Beyond. It's really pretty good despite its weak villain. It's at least one of the more competent blockbusters this summer. What gives?" Jason Bourne and Suicide Squad, that's what. Welcome to the new normal. Bourne ate away Beyond's second-week audience, and then Suicide Squad did the same to Bourne. That's a level of direct competition neither Into Darkness nor Star Trek had to contend with. As Forbes argued, this might just be the new normal:
INTERNATIONALBut we've now seen three straight weekends where a big movie snagged a peak potential opening and got hammered the next weekend due to another giant tentpole opening in the fray. This may be the future of the industry if Hollywood insists on drowning us in would-be franchise tentpoles.
This might also be a reflection of these Abrams movies gradually losing an audience, with Star Trek being the peak ($257m domestic), Into Darkness ($228m) the downslide and Beyond the bottom. Of course, while Into Darkness ultimately came up short of Star Trek's domestic total it made up for it with a big international showing which helped it take the title of biggest worldwide hit ($467m) in Star Trek history. So, how's Beyond doing in that department?
Pretty much the same story as domestic. Here's a breakdown of Beyond's performance after 3 weekends in the 6 biggest markets for film it is currently playing in compared to the prior Abrams films' 3 weekend-totals in the same territories:
Two Notes: "Neth." is short for Netherlands, and Germany's totals are only through week 2 because week 3 estimates weren't available at the time I put this together
With all due respect to Italy and Netherlands, the 11th and 15th biggest international film markets in the world, Paramount probably isn't exactly ecstatic that Beyond is at least keeping up with Into Darkness and Star Trek in those territories. Instead, they have to be disappointed with the way Beyond is lagging considerably behind Into Darkness ' pace in the UK, Germany, Australia and Russia.
This is what Beyond is projected to finish with in those territories compared to Into Darkness and Star Trek 's actual totals:
A Couple Notes: Remember these are just the projected final totals for Beyond based on its performance through 3 weekends. Also remember that the '09 Star Trek was not actually a big international hit, finishing with just $127m in foreign box office. Lastly, I couldn't fit it on the chart, but if you're curious Beyond 's projected domestic total right now is a mere $146m, that is if it keeps falling the way it has thus far.
The story, as per usual, now turns to China. Beyond has openings over the next couple of weeks in France, South Korea, Spain, Brazil and Mexico, all of them top 15 markets for film. However, both Into Darkness and Star Trek made less than $10m in each of those countries, except for South Korea where Into Darkness grossed $11.4m. The real boost for Into Darkness, though, came from China, where it scored $56m compared to Star Trek's meager $8m. As such, Paramount partnered with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba on Beyond, and secured a fantastic release date (9/2) up against no competition from another Hollywood title.
Furthermore, as per Variety, "Alibaba will help cover the merchandising and promotional costs, and is also serving as a brand ambassador of sorts to the Middle Kingdom. The association worked well for Paramount in the case Rogue Nation, which grossed $135.7 million in China, an impressive 25% jump on the previous film in the franchise."
Based on what Beyond is doing in the rest of the world, it's going to need a boost just like that. After China, there's just Japan (10/21), and then Paramount will be left figuring out their next move. As Forbes said, "Paramount need to come to a place where a $150m domestic/$300m worldwide total for a Star Trek movie is considered a win" because that's roughly where Beyond seems to be heading unless it's saved by China.
In this, the 50 year anniversary of the franchise, it is worth pausing to point out that if you just go by box office receipts alone several of the prior Star Trek movies would look like money losers, specifically Nemesis, Insurrection and The Final Frontier, and two of those three still earned sequels. Plus, there's no telling what kind of shot in the arm the franchise will receive from the forthcoming Star Trek: Discovery TV series, which will be unrelated to the current films and managed by a different company (CBS instead of Paramount, although they are oddly both owned by Viacom) but is still Star Trek. Having an actual new Trek TV show up and running, available through Netflix pretty much everywhere in the world but the US, could at least keep the franchise in the public consciousness and embolden Paramount to crank out one more film, probably again co-financed with Alibaba. Or it could backfire and cause audiences to prefer to see a Star Trek: Discovery movie instead of Kirk and crew yet again.
Oh, such potential drama:
Sources: Forbes, BoxOfficeMojo
