To see our other box office top 10 breakdowns please go here.
So, here’s what happened this weekend at the domestic box office: Captain America: The Winter Soldier declined exactly on par with recent Marvel Phase 2 films, but was still a bigger draw than Rio 2, which opened flat compared to the first Rio 3 years ago. Oculus and Draft Day duked it out for what was left over. Let’s break it down.
Top 10 Estimated Domestic Totals (4/11-4/13)
1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
- Weekend Gross=$41.3 million
- Total Gross to Date=$159 million
- Budget=$170 million
Foreign: $60.6 million this weekend for a new total foreign gross of $317.7 million and worldwide total of $476.7 million.
How far did it drop? 56%
How does that compare to the second-weekend drops of the other recent Marvel films? It’s almost identical to Thor: The Dark World (57.3%) and Iron Man 3 (58.4%), keeping in mind that Dark World had only Best Man Holiday with which to contend, Iron Man 3 had the surprisingly strong The Great Gatsby, and Winter Soldier had to battle Rio 2.
How does Winter Soldier stack up against First Avenger? Back in 2011, First Avenger needed 112 days of domestic release to end up with $176.6 million. Winter Soldier is at $159 million after just 10 days. Furthermore, First Avenger only managed $193 million foreign/$370.5 million worldwide compared to Winter Soldier‘s $317.7 million foreign/$476.7 million worldwide.
Any other notable observations? That $476.7 million worldwide gross for Winter Soldier is not just more than the first Captain America but also the first Thor ($449.3 million). In fact, at its current rate Winter Soldier may end up being the highest grossing (domestic and worldwide) Marvel Studios film not to feature Iron Man.
2. Rio 2 (Opening Weekend)
- Weekend Gross=$39 million
- Budget=$103 million
Foreign: $62.3 million this weekend for a new total foreign gross of $125.2 million and worldwide total of $164.2 million.
Rio 2 actually made more than Winter Soldier on Friday, leading to projections it would continue strong throughout the weekend, and take the no. 1 spot on the chart. However, instead of gaining 60-70% from Friday to Saturday like a normal family film on opening weekend Rio 2 only improved 28%, despite earning a CinemaScore grade of A, which is tabulated from exit-interviews conducted with opening night audiences. Blame it on the pleasant weather, or too much audience overlap with Winter Soldier, Muppets Most Wanted, and Mr. Peabody & Sherman. Either way, the result is Rio 2 opened flat compared to Rio, which debuted with $39.2 million on almost this same exact weekend in 2011. So, while 20th Century Fox managed to not lose any of the Rio franchise’s domestic audience over the past 3 years they also may not have grown that audience much either.
Not that there’s necessarily anything wrong with that because Rio was far more dependent upon the international market anyway, grossing $143 million domestic and $484 million worldwide meaning 70% of its worldwide total came from overseas. All of that for a movie which cost $90 million to produce. Rio 2 has been out in foreign countries for a month now, but this weekend was its first real big push into in that area. The result? It’s combined foreign gross was the highest among any film in release, just barely above Winter Soldier.
3. Oculus (Opening Weekend)
- Opening Weekend Gross=$12 million
- Budget=$5 million
Foreign: Opened in Italy, Russia, India, and Taiwan, but box office information isn’t available yet.
According to THR, Oculus was produced independently, and then sold to Relativity Media and found footage guru Jason Blum’s Blumhouse for $2.5 million at the 2013 Toronto Film Festival. As such, a $12 million opening weekend should just about put them in pure profit. Yay! The marketing people managed to effectively communicate that this is not just a stupid, haunted mirror movie starring the redhead (Karen Gillan) who left Doctor Who a couple of years ago. Right? Well, here’s what recent horror films featuring supernatural elements made on their openng weekends:
- Devil’s Due – $8 million
- Paranormal Activity: Marked Ones – $18 million
- Carrie – $16 million
- Insidious 2 – $40 million
- Conjuring – $41 million
- Evil Dead – $25 million
- Mama – $28 million
- Sinister – $18 million
- Possession – $17 million
- The Woman in Black – $20 million
- The Devil Inside – $33 million
Several of those are either sequels or remakes with an assumed built-in audience, but not all of them are. So, when you look at recent films of a similar nature it’s clear that Oculus‘ opening is on the very low end of things, at least better than Devil’s Due. Reason for hope? The first Insidious only opened at $13 million, but became a word-of-mouth hit on the way to a domestic total of $54 million. Reason to mope? Oculus only received a CinemaScore grade of C, and has direct competition on the way in two weeks from The Quiet Ones (4/25).
4. Draft Day (Opening Weekend)
- Opening Weekend Gross=$9.7 million
- Budget=$25 million
Foreign: Only opened in North America; begins its foreign roll-out next weekend.
Kevin Costner’s comfort blankets, both in his film and TV roles, are westerns and sports. So, while he just this year already tried his hand at elder statesman action mentor to Chris Pine in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Liam Neeson-style badass in 3 Days to Kill he’s back to sports with Draft Day. Sadly, this ended up being the weakest performer of the bunch, Ryan opening with $15 million in January, 3 Days with $12 million in Feburary, and now Draft Day with less than $10 million this weekend. Costner’s prior sports films Bull Durham, Field of Dreams, and Tin Cup all would have made over $100 million domestic at current ticket prices, and For Love of the Game would have finished just south of $60 million. Draft Day is clearly going to end up far closer to For Love of the Game than the other 3. The upside is this is a movie which skews older, and as of late older-skewing films like Last Vegas and Monument Men have opened soft in advance of surprisingly long runs in the top 10. Plus, that $25 million budget certainly exposes them to a manageable financial risk, comparatively at least.
5. Divergent
- Weekend Gross=$7.5 million
- Total Gross to Date=$124.8 million
- Budget=$85 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $50.3 million making for a worldwide total of $175.1 million
Divergent is now the highest domestic grossing YA book adaptation to not feature Harry Potter, Katniss Everdeen, or Bella Swan. It’s still oddly struggling to really catch on internationally, though. However, it’s done well enough that Lionsgate will happily split the final book in the series into two films, a clear vote of confidence in the franchise’s financial health. So, 2013′s blood bath of failed YA book adaptation is officially over. For now. We’ll see how The Giver and Maze Runner do later this year.
6. Noah
- Weekend Gross=$7.4 million
- Gross to Date=$84.8 million
- Budget=$125 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $162 million making for a worldwide total of $246.8 million
It opened big here, then it fell off worse than a 300 film, and will likely end up somewhere around $100 domestic by the end of its run, yet while that could be better it’s probably good enough since the international market is picking up the slack. At this point, that is becoming a very familiar trajectory for box office performance what with the ever-increasing importance of the foreign market to Hollywood’s bottom line.
7. God’s Not Dead
- Weekend Gross=$4.4 million
- Total Gross to Date=$40.7 million
- Budget=$2 million
Foreign: Expanded to Mexico; no box office information yet.
One wonders what joy those who support God’s Not Dead but reject Noah might feel should we come to the top 10 next weekend to find Noah having slipped below God’s Not Dead on the chart. Huh. Anyway, both films receive competition for faith-based audiences (a popular gal at the dance these days) when Heaven is for Real, based upon a best-selling non-fiction account of a boy who died and was revived and claimed to have seen heaven, opens on Wednesday.
8. Grand Budapest Hotel
- Weekend Gross=$4 million
- Total Gross to Date=$39.4 million
- Budget=They’re not telling
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $54.3 million making for a worldwide total of $93 million
Grand Budapest Hotel is already the biggest non-inflation-adjusted worldwide hit of director Wes Anderson’s career, ranking ahead of the Royal Tenenbaums‘ $71.4 million from 2001. It may not have enough juice to become his biggest domestic hit, though, still trailing Moonrise Kingdom ($48.2 million) and The Royal Tenenbaums ($52.3 million).
9. Muppet’s Most Wanted
- Weekend Gross=$2.1 million
- Total Gross to Date=$45.6 million
- Budget=$50 million
Foreign: Currently, its international gross stands at $10.1 million making for a worldwide total of $55.7 million
Prior to Muppet’s Most Wanted, the average Muppet film, including Jason Segel’s 2011 entry, grossed $41.2 million in actual dollars, $87.9 million in ticket price inflation-adjusted dollars. So, Muppet’s Most Wanted is slightly above average in actual dollars, but in reality it’s selling far fewer tickets and being seen by fewer people than the average Muppet film.
10. Mr. Peabody & Sherman
- Weekend Gross=$1.8 million
- Total Gross to Date=$105.2 million
- Budget=$145 million
Foreign: Currently, its’ total international gross stands at $136.5 million making for a worldwide total of $241.7 million
Dreamworks Animation has struggled with its non-sequels as of late (Turbo, Rise of the Guardians), only hitting big with The Croods, and Mr. Peabody & Sherman is another case of good, but not good enough. Sure, there have been plenty of animated films as of late (e.g., Nut Job, Free Birds) who would have killed for a domestic gross of $105 million/worldwide of $241 million, but those didn’t cost $145 million to produce (keeping in mind you need to double your budget in worldwide gross just to break even, which doesn’t account for marketing costs).
What Happened Outside of the Top 10?
Who Fell Out of the Top 10?: Non-Stop (#10 to #12), Need for Speed (#9 to #13), Sabotage (#8 to #18). Non-Stop enjoyed a strong run and is Liam Neeson’s biggest hit outside of the Taken franchise, but it will end up failing to have passed $100 million domestic, currently sitting at $89 million. Need for Speed zooms out of the top 10, stalling at $42 million domestic, considerably behind the $65 million it has earned in China to this point. Sabotage leaves the top 10 with just $10 million total domestic, making it the lowest inflation-adjusted grossing major film of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s career, failing to even match Last Stand’s $12.4 million from last year.
Any Notable Performances From Limited Releases?: Only Lovers Left Alive, which features Tom Hiddleston and Tilda Swinton playing vampires, debuted in 4 theaters, posing a $24,250 per-site-average, the best of any film in release. As a point of comparison, when Grand Budapest Hotel premiered in 4 theaters last month its per-site-average was $202,792.
Source: BoxOfficeMojo.com
What’s Up Next?: On Wednesday, yet another Christian film arrives with Heaven is For Real (4/16), except unlike Son of God and God’s Not Dead this one stars actors you might recognize like Greg Kinnear. On Friday, three additional films open wide – Disney’ bold documentary about nature’s godless killing machine, Bears, the latest Wayans Bros. parody project A Haunted House 2, and Transcendence, starring Johnny Depp and directed by Chistopher Nolan’s long-time cinemattographer Wally Pfister.
