Sorry about that headline.
But really, $90 a barrel is $4/gallon at the pump in even the cheapest states and we're back to paying $100 for a tank of gas. If OPEC is trying to convince consumers to go electric, they are doing a hell of a job. The price of oil is up 50% since their December meeting and, since they are a cartel that seeks to maximize profits for it's members (like the Federal Reserve) – OPEC is doing a wonderful job of making something out of nothing.
Of course, food and energy costs are excluded from most measures of inflation because they are "volatile", which I believe is Italian for "things you don't have to pay for." For those of us living in reality, however, food and energy costs are the worst offenders and if those are rising out of control and we just got a crappy Consumer Confidence Report – what is the sentiment going to be next month as things get worse, not better?
The Fed didn't say they won't cut rates – the Fed said they would be "data-dependent" and $90 oil is a big red flag on the field telling them they'd better cut hard and fast. Of coure, when that's the case, you can always BS the data – like this note from the USDA's recent price projections for 2022:
Food price increases are expected to be between 20-year averages and the rapid increases observed during the pandemic. In 2022, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase between 3.5 and 4.5 percent. Price increases for food away from home are expected to exceed historical averages but be at or below the inflation rate in 2021. Upward pressures on meat prices are expected to ease in the latter half of 2022. Price increases are expected to more closely align with 20-year averages for most other food groups.
You don't need me to tell you that's nonsense because you KNOW that's nonsense. We have not even BEGUN to get price increases from restaurants because, at the moment, they are happy if we just show up. Supermarkets are also slow to raise prices but the earnings reports…
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