Which Way Wednesday – CPI Edition

8.5%

That was our last CPI reading and we're having a bit of a pre-market rally (the same one that failed yesterday) on rumors that CPI is calming down which leads to rumors that the Fed will suddenly decide they don't need to tighten anymore.  I don't think any single reading will change the Fed but will CPI be calmer today?

Commodities have been driving the CPI so it makes sense to me to look at commodities and see if they calmed down between March and April.  

• Oil was crazier in March, hitting $120 early in the month.  April stayed below $110 and averaged about $105.  Gasoline, on the other hand, was just as bad and Natural Gas got much worse as March topped out at $5.75 and $6.50 was pretty much the low in April.  
• Cotton was higher, OJ was higher, Coffee flat, Lumber lower, Sugar higher (soft commodities)
• Metals were lower across the board, most importantly Copper, which was about $4.65 in March and $4.60 in April but finished at $4.40 and is now $4.20 so it depends if CPI goes for the average or the finish how strongly that will reflect a calming.
• Live Cattle (ready to eat or milk) also pulled back on the last days but Feeder Cattle (young cows) blasted higher in April.  Hogs also went insane.  There's no chart for Chickens…
• Corn was up, Soybean Oil up, Soybean Meal down 15%, Soybeans down a bit, Oats about even but a weak finish, Rice up, Wheat Flat and Canola up,

So the commodites do not indicate an overall improvement in CPI but we might be saved by the Dollar, which flexed up from 99 in March to 101 in April and finished the month at almost 104 (still there).  That 2% boost in buying power can be used to justify a lot of CPI adjustments so they can tell us how inflation is getting under control and that is kind of how it's supposed to work – the Fed raises rates, strenghening the Dollar which then weakens commodities and puts inflation in check.  We'll see how well that worked out shortly but we're certainly not out of the woods yet…
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