The battle for the White House begins. Photo credit: Shutterstock.
The background
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have hit the campaign trail after their respective party conventions, with key battleground states bracing for an ad blitz. According to The Boston Herald, total spending on TV campaigning alone is set to hit $1.1 billion as the two-month race to the polls begins in earnest.
The swing states
The ‘swing’ or battleground states, where no single candidate or party has overwhelming support, will prove key in the election. According to The New York Times’ electoral map, the states up for grabs in the 2012 election are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Each state poses particular challenges for the two candidates. In Colorado, for example, “a wariness of big government could test Mr. Obama”, but Romney “faces his own challenge in appealing to independents and women”.
Romney to Virginia, Obama to Florida
Romney headed to bible-belt state Virginia to deliver a religion-focused stump speech. According to Politico, “with the 2008 election, Virginia made the leap from reliably Republican in presidential elections to swing state status… there’s every sign the state will be close to the end.” Meanwhile, Obama slammed Republican tax cuts in a speech in St Petersburg, Florida. This state is particularly important as it has 29 electoral votes, explained Politico: “Both sides are paying close attention to the swing county: the GOP went so far as to hold its national convention there and Obama has visited at least twice already this year.”
The polls
A Gallup poll for the period 2nd – 8th September 2012 gave Obama a five-point lead over Romney – 49 percent to 44 percent. And a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on 9th September gave Obama a four-point lead.
Don’t write off Romney
Admittedly, the polls don’t look good for the GOP, said Brad Knickerbocker at The Christian Science Monitor. But “there are 58 days until the election, and Romney has at least two major advantages: The ability to raise and spend more money, particularly on the negative advertising that has come to mark both campaigns; and a faltering economy that’s continued under Obama’s watch.”
How much does the economy really matter?
Niall Ferguson argued at The Daily Beast that the latest polls show US voters aren’t as influenced by the economy as previously thought: “True, when asked to rank issues, voters mostly put the economy at the top of the list. And yet when asked to make a choice between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, their choices don’t seem to be economically based,” Ferguson wrote. It seems to come down at least partly to likability: “Many people subscribe to the view that Romney just isn’t likable. They can more readily imagine having a beer or shooting hoops with Obama.”
Swept off his feet: Barack Obama got more than he bargained for in a Florida pizza parlour, after the Republican-registered owner lifted the US president in a giant bear hug.
