The Labor Department has released its statistics for the month of April, and at first glance they look good. The unemployment rate has dropped 0.2 points to 3.9%. The economy created 164,000 jobs. But the number of the unemployed dropped by 239,000. That means the drop in the unemployment rate was more due to a reduction in the civilian work force of 236,000 than new job creation. This is due to people retiring or people giving up trying to find a job (and are no longer counted by the labor department).
Of course, Donald Trump is crowing about the lower unemployment rate. He wants to take credit for it. That's unfortunate, since his latest economic moves are likely to hurt the economy -- huge tax cuts for the rich which will increase the wealth/income gap, and the imposition of tariffs which will hurt many farmers and manufacturers. I could be wrong, but I think the unemployment rate will begin to rise as these economic moves begin to take effect.
Here are the relevant statistics for April:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:
161,527,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
6,346,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
3.9%
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT:
Adult men...............3.7%
Adult women...............3.5%
Teens (16-19)...............12.9%
Whites...............3.6%
Blacks...............6.6%
Hispanics...............4.8%
Asians...............2.8%
Less than HS diploma...............5.9%
HS graduate...............4.3%
Some college...............3.5%
Bachelor's deg. or more...............2.1%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED WORKERS (no longer counted):
1,362,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
7,708,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.77%
