The Labor Department has released It's statistics for the month of July. Only a rather anemic 157,000 jobs were created in July, but with only 105,000 new entrants to the work force that was enough to drop the unemployment rate back down to 3.9%. We seem to have reached the bottom -- with unemployment being between 3.8% and 4.1% for 10 straight months now.
In the past, full employment was defined as 3% unemployed (the amount that are quitting or changing jobs in a normal economy). It's looking like that new normal will be closer to 4% now.
Will Trump's trade war affect the unemployment rate. It's too soon to tell, but with him wanting to go even further in imposing tariffs, it definitely could. We'll see in the next few months.
Here are the relevant statistics for July:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:
162,245,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
6,280,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
3.9 %
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT:
Adult men...............3.4%
Adult women...............3.7%
Teenagers (16-19)................13.1%
Whites...............3.4%
Blacks...............6.6%
Asians...............3.1%
Hispanics...............4.5%
Less than HS diploma...............5.1%
HS graduate...............4.0%
Some college...............3.2%
Bachelor's degree or more...............2.2%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED UNEMPLOYED (no longer being counted):
1,498,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED (official + marginal-attached):
7,778,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.79%
