0.9%!
That's the rate this month in the 4th straight month of increases in Consumer Spending as April keeps it going for the year. As Inflation is 8.3% (officially) and that's 0.7/month, it means that Consumers are buying 0.2% more stuff and the rest is just paying more for the stuff they were already buying. 0.2% x 12 is 2.4% Real Consumer Spending growth – the rest is just BS. In fact, when adjusted for Inflation, Retail Sales FELL 0.7% in March and April is just bouncing back a bit.
But, as I said yesterday, we choose to be optimistic at the moment. My own consumer research indicated spending would be strong and, last Wednesday, we took some of our hedges off the table in our Short-Term Portfolio, lining ourselves up for what we hoped would be at least a weak bounce back to 4,160 – our predicted Weak Bounce Line on the S&P 500.
As you can see, we actually overshot the 4,000 line by a bit but now we're back and ready to do a bit of buying with all that CASH!!! we have laying around – if we can see a bit of strength around our bounce lines. So far, no good as we're barely holding the base-line at 4,000 and, failing that, our downside is now lined up with both Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan (JPM) who both issued targets yesterday agreeing with our 3,600 (10% below 4,000) low-end range.
Sure we picked the low end of the range for this year around Thanksgiving of last year - but we're happy whenever our slower friends manage to catch up to our analysis…
Speaking of slow friends catching up – PARA is popping 10% this morning as Warren Buffett announces a $2.6Bn purchase – close to 20% of the company! People at the Las Vegas Conference this week know that PARA was my top pick as it was my answer every time when people would ask me "What is your favorite stock at the moment?" and our Members, of course, are really tired of me banging the table on them but this is what it's all been for.
You must login to see all of Phil's posts. To read the rest of this article now, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, additional member comments, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil's Stock World by clicking here.
To signup for a free trial membership, click here.
Do you know someone who would benefit from this information? We can send your friend a strictly confidential, one-time email telling them about this information. Your privacy and your friend's privacy is your business... no spam! Click here and tell a friend!
