The world is breathing a sigh of relief right now. After coming to the brink of war, both Iran and Donald Trump have backed off.Iran did retaliate for the assassination of their general, but the retaliation was measured and did not cost the lives of any Americans. And Trump, although threatening he would retaliate for any Iranian attack, has decided not to react militarily. He just put some useless additional sanctions on Iran. The sanctions won't mean much, but he can brag to his base that he at least did something.
But don't be fooled. The danger of a wider conflict between the two countries still exists.
The Iranians will continue their efforts to get the United States out of Iraq (and the whole Middle East), and it is likely that will involve the killing of some American soldiers. And Trump's threat to attack 52 Iranian sites remains. His narcissism won't let him do nothing if more American soldiers are attacked -- and as we saw with the assassination of Iran's general, we cannot be assured that Trump won't blunder again.
Trump has called for a new deal with Iran over nuclear weapons. That's not going to happen. The Iranians were keeping to the last deal. It was Trump who broke that deal, and there is no reason now for the Iranians to trust he would keep a future deal. If Trump knew how to use diplomacy and negotiate, that might be a remote possibility, but he doesn't. His only negotiating tactics are bullying and threats -- and Iran has shown they won't respond well to that.
Trump has also called for our NATO allies to help with a new Iranian deal. That's unlikely too. They know it was Trump that blew up the old deal (not Iran), and they have spent the last couple of years trying to save that deal. They couldn't, and it's because Trump wouldn't cooperate. They also have seen how Trump treats his allies, and frankly, I don't think they trust Trump any more than the Iranians do.
The Middle East remains a tinder box, and it will flare up again. The danger persists. Trump's base may not know that, but the rest of the world does.
