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Thursday Flip-Flop – Now GS Says S&P 1,250 is Target

Posted on the 05 April 2012 by Phil's Stock World @philstockworld

That's right folks – Goldman Sach's Chief Forecaster, David Kostin latest monthly chartbook has a 3-month target for the S&P 500 at 1,275 (down 9%) and a 12-month target of 1,250.  

I don't agree with the longer-term forecast as I think inflation will kick in by then and we'll be off to the races (in price, not value) but that 90-day target is right on the money.  I know you may be saying to yourself: "Say, didn't Goldman just tell us last month to BUYBUYBUY?"

Of course they did.  If you don't BUYBUYBUY, who were they going to SELLSELLSELL to.  See those S&P calls at the bottom – Nove 30th: "SELL Internationa Sales Basket," January 9th: "SELL S&P 500" – that's what GS tells their insiders – if you somehow got a slightly different impression of what they were saying from the MSM or ex-GS alumni Jim Cramer or any of the 300 stooges on CNBC – you must have simply misunderstood.  

Doesn't Cramer sound like one of those hosts on the Home Shopping Network when they get stuck trying to sell an item that isn't moving?  Clearly the Banksters did not expect that their Pavlovian attempt to train retail investors to buy every dip would wear off so quickly and this is why we "Sold into the Excitement" last week, rather than waiting for the charts to tell us what the Fundamentals were whispering in February, when we made our plan to "Sell in March and Go Away".  In fact, the title of my Friday post was the last in my series of warnings: "March Goes Out Like a Lamb (to the Slaugher)." 

SPY 5 MINUTE After adding additional bearish bets in yesterday's morning post and early Member Chat (and TLT is flying this morning), we did flip bullish at 2:15, going long on the Russell Futures (/TF) at 815 and the QQQ weekly $66 calls at $1.16 (for the Futures-challenged).  The RUT gave us a lovely run back to 818.50 for a $350 per contract gain and the Qs ran up to $1.40 for a nice 20% gain in less than two hours and, of course, we flipped back to bearish at the close.  My prediction for tomorrow (today) was:

I think we're good for at least another half-point down tomorrow.  

So…



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