I believe the more interesting conversation than why she lost, is how he won. We on the left try to comfort each other with the cold (i.e., freezing) comfort of "he barely won the popular vote," or "Wisconsin was decided by just 30k people," but the reality is Donald Trump destroyed Kamala Harris. Trump, for the first time, won the popular vote and took all seven swing states. It was a political earthquake that rendered legacy media and knocking on doors as 20th century relics. Trump gained 13 points with Latinos, and the quake even shook races in California. (Note: the Golden State is still counting ballots.) The aftershocks will be felt for the next four years (and beyond), but we know where the epicenter was.
Social Contract, Broken
Despite a 51-48 split in the popular vote, three-quarters of Americans agree on one thing: We're on the wrong track. That's been the political reality for most of this century - high levels of dissatisfaction, resulting in a series of "change" elections. The reason? Voters recognize that millennials and Zoomers aren't as prosperous as their boomer and Gen X parents. One example: In 1981 the median age of a homebuyer was 38, today it's 54.
The epicenter of the 2024 political earthquake wasn't immigration, bodily autonomy, or democracy. It was the social contract between America and its citizens. The contract is straightforward: Work hard and play by the rules, and your children will have a better life than you did. For the first time in 250 years, that contract has not held.
President 'T'
During an earthquake, solid ground is an illusion. I learned this in 1971, when the Sylmar quake devastated Los Angeles. The movement of tectonic plates, usually just a few centimeters per year, goes unnoticed until they slip, releasing enough energy to rip apart the ground beneath your feet. Tectonic plates meet, pressure builds, and ultimately breaks apart at the fault line. If the epicenter of this election was America's social contract, the fault line was masculinity.
Before the election, I predicted the outcome would be decided by whoever presented a more aspirational vision of masculinity. The reasoning was correct; the call was wrong. Instead of seeing men as providers and protectors, voters embraced crypto, the UFC, and Hulk Hogan. Tesla, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin are up 29%, 25%, 24%, and 106%, respectively. (Note: the S&P is up nearly 4% over the same period.) And we Democrats were stood up, left bereft by voters motivated by bodily autonomy ... who didn't show up.
Trump was able to distance himself from the bodily autonomy issue. Five of the seven states that voted for pro-choice amendments split the ticket on the issue, pulling the lever for the former president. America elected President T, only the "T" doesn't stand for Trump, but testosterone. How Americans vote should be taken seriously re the direction of the country, but much of the rhetoric has been ugly and should not be normalized.
Man Down
I receive a lot of emails from worried parents, particularly mothers, along these lines: "I have a daughter who lives in Chicago and works in PR and another daughter who's at Penn. My son lives in our basement, vapes, and plays video games."
Young American men are in a crisis of underemployment and under-socialization. Soaring college costs affect people regardless of gender, but since 2011, the percentage of young men enrolled in college has dropped from 47% to 42%. Manufacturing jobs, once a ticket to the middle class for men without college degrees, have been offshored. Housing is increasingly unaffordable; nearly 60% of men aged 18 to 24 live with their parents and 1 in 5 still live with their parents at 30. Many men are stuck: isolated, despairing, and unproductive, prone to obesity, drug addiction, and suicide, susceptible to misogyny, conspiracy theories, and radicalization. They make inadequate mates, employees, and citizens.
Burn
An African proverb states: "The child who is not embraced by the village will burn it down to feel its warmth." When young men are struggling, they, and their parents, vote based on an attribute vs. an issue. That attribute this cycle was disruption. These voters didn't vote for the party that believes the solution for young men is to act more like women, or even traditional Republicans. They opted for whoever would disrupt an America that's broken its most basic contract. As Cersei Lannister said: "I choose violence." The electorate chose chaos.
When parents see their kids hurting, they become single-issue voters. From 2020 to 2024, Trump gained 15 points among 18- to 29-year-old men. The mothers of young voters (women ages 45-64) voted for Trump more than any other age group of women, including women over 65. Their fathers (men ages 45-64) voted for Trump at a higher rate than any other male age group - except for men over 65, who supported him by one percentage point more. The boys burned down the village to feel its warmth, and their parents gave them the matches.
The Kids Aren't Alright
In April I gave a TED Talk about America's war on the young. The war is being waged on nearly every front, but one especially revealing battleground is our social safety net.
If it seems like we care more about senior citizens than our children, trust your instincts - recall that we let the Child Tax Credit expansion expire post-pandemic. Meanwhile, Social Security remains the third rail of American politics, with old people electing older people who vote themselves more money. To paraphrase Warren Buffet, there is a generational war in America, and my generation is winning.
It's Still the Economy, Stupid
After a campaign where most of the oxygen was consumed by performative pandering over culture war issues, voters reminded us that their No. 1 issue is the economy. America is a platform that provides two things: the defense of our shores and citizens and economic opportunity. Everything else comes in a distant third. In a capitalist society, the fastest path to expanding and protecting rights is simple: Give people more money. When you put expanding rights ahead of increasing economic opportunity, you're treating the symptom, not the disease.
In America - and this has not always been the case and should be celebrated - your opportunities are more a function of your economic weight class than your identity. Demographics are no longer destiny. Today in America you'd rather be born non-white or gay than poor. Our spending priorities (entitlements), tax policies (capital gains and mortgage interest deductions), and fiscal policies (bail-outs of incumbents) are nothing but a transfer of wealth from young to old. Compared to 40 years ago, the average 70+-year-old is 72% wealthier, and the average person under 40 is 24% less wealthy. In addition, social media notifications remind them 210 times a day that everyone "else" is killing it. The most noxious emission in America is not carbon but shame.
The disease is simple to diagnose: Young people don't have enough money. We should treat the disease, not with leeches (tariffs) and cocaine (tax cuts for the wealthy), but treatments that are proven to work.
A few suggestions ...
Do the Minimum
Seventy percent of minimum wage workers are between 16 and 34. The fastest way to put more money in their hands is to give them a raise. I believe the federal minimum wage should be $25 per hour.
Ask What You Can Do for Your Country
Only 18% of 18- to 34-year-olds say they're proud to be an American. We should require/encourage one or two years of (paid) service for young people. Service builds grit, camaraderie, connections, and social conscience; it heals political divisions and restores faith in the country. The left will cry fascism, the right communism. Angering both extremes is a tell for good policy, which generally appeals to the center rather than the fringes. Note: When the extremes agree, it's usually centered on reckless spending or antisemitism.
Get Fit
JFK challenged Americans to improve their physical fitness. The President's Physical Fitness Test emphasized performance, but it was replaced by the Presidential Youth Fitness Program, which emphasized health. We should do both, as some studies have shown that physical strength and exercise are 1.5x as effective as antidepressants at battling depression.
Build, Baby, Build
We have a shortage of affordable housing. One conservative estimate suggests we need to build 3 million housing units. This isn't rocket science. Building housing at that scale would create more than a million jobs and generate billions in tax revenue. The private sector responds to incentives. This should likely be done via a tax credit, vs. regulation.
Nuclear Option
FDR's New Deal put millions to work, building the Hoover Dam and LaGuardia Airport and bringing electricity to the South. Eisenhower's Interstate Highway System - a project of immeasurable benefit for jobs and commerce - continues to pay dividends 70 years later. Today we need carbon-free energy to combat climate change and fuel the AI revolution. Nuclear accounts for 20% of our total power output and half of our clean energy. Increasing our nuclear output 3x would likely create 1.5 million jobs. Nuclear energy feels more masculine than wind and solar - I'm hopeful Trump will embrace it.
IRS Jovem
We should take a page from Portugal and grant a tax holiday for 18-35 year olds as a means of staunching generational wealth transfer. The Portuguese government recognized the most talented young Portuguese had one thing in common: They'd left the country. The new tax benefits extend over 10 years, including no taxation for the first year. The program is meant to help retain and attract young professionals. In the U.S., we have the most anxious and depressed younger generation in history. The incumbents will plead complexity as a mis-direct from a simple solution, more prosperity (i.e., money). The program would not be that expensive, as it requires no increase in the administrative state, and young people don't generate much tax revenue to begin with.
Make Education Affordable Again
Nothing says "we believe in you" like education. Some public universities offer free admission to students who meet minimum academic requirements. This should be the rule, not the exception. Any university that has an endowment over a billion that's not expanding its freshman class faster than population growth should lose its tax-free status. It's no longer a public servant but a hedge fund offering classes.
Also, we should bulk up on vocational training and paid apprenticeships, as many people, especially men, thrive in careers that require strength, sweat, and technical skill. These are good-paying jobs shamed by the zeitgeist in our society, which says if you're one of the two-thirds of families whose kid doesn't graduate from college you and your kid have fucked up (see above: shame).
Make Dating Great Again
Young people are having less sex. This contributes to a delay in unlocking adult milestones (marriage, kids) and sets up a demographic time bomb. Without the prospect of a romantic relationship, women pour energy into other relationships and work, men into addiction and resentment. Remote work is a disaster for young people - a quarter of all couples meet at work. We need to get more young people into an office, classroom, or some other environment where they're serving in the agency of something bigger than themselves (see above: national service).
Today's venue for connection, or lack thereof, is online dating. But, like every other sector that's been digitized, it's become a winner-take-most arena. A small number of men garner all the attention, leaving a man of average attractiveness totally shut out of the market, which validates his sense of worthlessness. And the top decile of men are given license to engage in Porsche polygamy, which doesn't encourage the formation of long-term relationships and issues a hall pass for bad behavior. Who wants more economically and emotionally viable men? A: Women. How do we get young people pairing? A: Make more men more attractive by leveling up young people economically.
Shooting Match
AI, GDP, S&P, innovation, shareholder growth ... these things are all means. The ends are deep and meaningful relationships. They are everything. And the center of (literally) everything is the well-being of your kids. When they're not doing well, they and their mothers become the mother of single-issue voters: change/disruption.
So ... how did Trump win? A: His campaign determined the best way to win over young men and their parents was to act like a young bro himself. Think about it: rockets, crypto, Rogan, coarse language, offensive jokes. This election was supposed to be a referendum on women's rights. It wasn't. It was a cold plunge into testosterone.
Life is so rich,
P.S. Josh Brown joined us last week on the Prof G Markets pod to discuss how the financial landscape could evolve in Trump's second term. Listen here on Apple or here on Spotify.
P.P.S. Section's big Black Friday deal this year is 40% off the first AI for Business Mini-MBA of 2025 for everyone who joins the waitlist before Nov. 22. This is no longer an optional skill - I'd encourage you to take advantage.
Correction: Last week we incorrectly cited the source on our chart on the median age of audience for select media. The correct source is Amplifi Media and the chart has been corrected and republished, with our apologies to CEO Steven Goldstein.
