Do you prefer the weather of warm Miami or...
Ask yourself this question: What city has a better climate Miami or San Francisco? Anyone that’s read this blog and in particular my earlier posts analyzing “the perfect climate” will know that I favor the heat and sunshine of South Florida over the consistent cool of Northern California. However, I was in Florida last week, first in Orlando and then in Fort Lauderdale, and in keeping with what has been a remarkably warm 2012 for the eastern two-thirds of the United States, it was summer hot with highs at or above 90 and more humidity than is normal for early April. I was on vacation and glad for the summery temperatures [1], but as I sweated under the afternoon sun I did have to ask myself whether summer at Easter is really how I would define my perfect climate.
...temperate San Francisco?
And judging by the many comments I received on my three previous Perfect Climate posts, I’d say there is a strong sentiment regarding this topic. I defined what I considered the perfect climate, but many readers have different preferences (see a sampling of reader comments below).
This is the fourth post in my “Perfect Climate” series. To check out the first three, use the following links:
- The Perfect Climate – Part 1
- The Perfect Climate – Part 2
- The Perfect Climate – Part 3
Fortunately, one of the benefits of the climate ranking system I developed is that it can be adjusted for different tastes. I’d like to examine one such adjustment, one that addresses the question I posed at the beginning of this post. But first, a review of my ranking system.
Conroy’s Perfect Climate
Most people have their preferences for what makes a perfect climate, but as I explained in Part 1 I feel that temperature is the key factor and dominates humidity, and other elements like sunshine, wind, and precipitation. When it comes to temperature there are four variables to consider:
- mean annual temperature, the higher the better [2];
- the variance between the hottest month and the coldest month, the lower this difference (the less extreme the seasonality) the better [3];
- the mean temperature for each month of the year, the more “comfortable” the monthly mean the better (or stated another way: How comfortable is it at any given time of the year?) [4]; and
- the mean diurnal temperature differences by month (the difference between daily high and low), the lower the better because a comfortable daily mean doesn’t mean much if actual daily temperatures vary greatly [5].
Climate Rankings for the 30 Largest Metropolitan Areas
Rank Metropolitan Area Climate Score
1 Miami, FL 44.9
2 Tampa, FL 37.8
3 Los Angeles, CA 37.1
4 Orlando, FL 36.4
5 San Diego, CA 36.0
6 Houston, TX 29.5
7 San Francisco, CA 27.9
8 Riverside, CA 25.3
9 San Antonio, TX 23.9
10 Sacramento, CA 22.4
11 Phoenix, AZ 21.0
12 Dallas, TX 18.0
13 Atlanta, GA 16.6
14 Seattle, WA 14.2
15 Portland, OR 13.9
16 Las Vegas, NV 13.0
17 Baltimore, MD 9.9
18 Washington, DC 9.0
19 Philadelphia, PA 5.7
20 New York, NY 4.3
21 Cincinnati, OH 3.8
22 St. Louis, MO 3.6
23 Kansas City, MO 3.3
24 Boston, MA 2.5
25 Chicago, IL 1.3
26 Detroit, MI 0.1
27 Pittsburgh, PA 0.1
28 Cleveland, OH -0.2
29 Denver, CO -0.4
30 Minneapolis, MN -12.6
Honolulu is the number 1 big city in my original rankings
After tweaking the formula, computing the climate scores, and analyzing the rankings, I was pleased. The rankings more or less reflected my view of the perfect climate. In particular, places in the hot and humid South and Southeast ranked high, as did temperate California, and then places in the baking Southwest. The lowest ranking places were (of course) freezing Alaska and the highly variable Northern Great Plains.After I published these rankings I reviewed where Americans have chosen to live over the last half century and the results seem to validate my thinking. People prefer warm winters to cool summers. People will endure high summer heat to avoid freezing winter cold. See The Perfect Climate – Part 3 for more details on the correlation between climate and American demographic trends.
However, as pleased as I was at these results and despite how Americans seem to have (and continue to) vote with their feet for the climates they choose to live in, I received many critical comments on my system and the rankings, including:
“I see that San Diego rates really high, and having spent a lot of time in "America's Finest City", I can attest that it has an almost ideal climate. I much prefer the dryer conditions there than the sticky humidity in Florida.” – CT, Eugene, OR
“Wow! Having escaped Houston's oppressive humidity and 100º heat even in June for Denver's 300+ sunny days/year, I gotta pick my subjective observations over your methodology for picking a place to live!” – Nowitall, Denver, CO
“Ill have to be honest with you about the Florida climate. I've lived in Florida for about 12 years (in the Tampa area) and the climate is nothing to strive for. The summers are absolutely brutal. April- October you have to deal with temps above 90F with a lot of humidity. It’s not the heat as much as it is humidity. Every summer morning I always walk my dog. In the morning it’s about 86F with usually 90 percent humidity. 5 minutes outside and you’re pouring with sweat.”– Anonymous, Tampa
“I think the local summers in Melbourne, Australia at 26˚C (80˚F) are on the warm side, and always say to people that Tasmania has the best weather in Australia - not because it’s cold (which it isn’t) but because the summers are so cool at 22˚C (70˚F). 22˚C is cooler than summers in most major cities of Canada, and to me the best climate in the US in in the thinly settled coast of Oregon and Northern California, say North Bend or Crescent City…I cannot myself call the winters in Florida or lowland Arizona even “temperate”, rather I would call them warm shorts weather. Even with its very cold nights, Flagstaff for me is a vastly more pleasant climate than Phoenix or Tucson: the daytime average for the year is just perfect at 16˚C (60˚F) though the nights are really cold.” - Jpbenney
“I have a few thoughts based on my experience from actually visiting many of the locations you note…First, humidity matters a lot. You addressed this in your post, but for me it's a huge factor. Hot and humid conditions are a huge factor in overall comfort. I also think you need to lend more weight to coastal proximity. I think being closer to a cost is way better than being far removed from one…Other variables also play a large factor. Many of your top 10 cities are located in Florida, which I find unbearably hot in the summer.” – Anonymous, Virginia
Hot humid Houston is not to everyone's liking
Clearly, some readers object to the hot and humid cities of Florida ranking higher than the cooler cities of Coastal California or the Pacific Northwest; or humid Houston ranking far higher than variable Denver; or pleasant Seattle and Portland ranking behind burning Phoenix. Broadly summarizing, criticisms of my system include:- Humidity is not taken into consideration, which can turn plain heat into oppressive, heavy, cloying, sweat-inducing mugginess.
- The negative effects of very high temperatures are not properly weighted. For example, the 110 degree Phoenix summer heat is just as bad as deep winter cold.
- The pleasantness of cool summer conditions like those of the Pacific Northwest are not appropriately considered vis-à-vis the warm winter conditions of say, Florida.
An Alternative Ranking
What about preferences for places cooler than Dallas or Orlando? How can my initial climate formula be adjusted to accommodate different temperate tastes?
First, annual temperature variance shouldn’t be adjusted. The less seasonal variance there is the better. After all, what good are temperate summers if they’re associated with very cold winters (like Boston, for instance)? I’d make the same argument for daily temperature difference. What good are warm afternoon temperatures if they come along with freezing nighttime conditions (like Flagstaff in the spring and fall)?
However, I would suggest that annual mean temperature should be adjusted. The warmest annual mean temperature for a large American city belongs to Honolulu (77.5 degrees) and while few would argue that Honolulu has an oppressive climate, an average of nearly 78 degrees is pretty warm. Cities in Florida, Texas, and Arizona feature average annual temperatures over 70 degrees. In contrast, San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco all feature annual mean temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Someone who prefers a temperate climate would like average temperatures similar to Coastal California and not south Texas.
Then there is the month-by-month mean temperatures, which represent the climate comfort at any given time of the year, and consideration of this variable also makes a difference. My system assumes that an average temperature in the low 70s is ideal. Something like my hometown of Baltimore in September when the average high is 81 and the average low is 64. However, others may consider ideal temperatures to be, say, ten degrees lower, a place like Seattle in June when the average high is 70 degrees and the average low is 53 degrees. In addition, my system favors warm temperatures over cold temperatures, so a hot August monthly average of 85 degrees in Dallas scores higher than a cool January monthly average of 50 degrees in San Jose. Certainly a reasonable person could argue that the reverse should be true.
Moreover, there are more than just individual tastes to be considered. A strong economic and environmental argument can be made for the desirability of regions more consistently temperate than Florida or Texas or southern Arizona. It costs money and energy to heat and cool buildings and cars. It takes a lot of energy to keep Houston houses comfortable in the summer when open windows are the norm in San Francisco. The same holds true to keep Minnesotans warm in the winter when Los Angeles is very pleasant.
My climate formula assumes that the higher the mean annual temperature the better, but a temperate preference would not agree with this. So instead, I'll assume that the ideal mean temperature for a temperate taste is 65 degrees. And value over that number will be discounted proportionately from the climate score [9]. For instance, a city with an annual average temperature of 70 degrees (like Houston) would get 5 points subtracted from from its climate score. This effectively equates the 70 degree average to a 60 degree average, penalizing a "too warm" city as much as my original formula penalizes "too cold" cities.
My climate formula applies “quality points” for each month based on the mean monthly temperature. Lower (negative) quality points are earned for very low or high mean monthly temperatures and higher points are earned for moderate or warm mean monthly temperatures. For instance, Chicago gets -4 points for its very cold January average of 25 degrees and 3 points for its very pleasant June average of 71 degrees. Each month’s points are then summed for an annual total and used as part of the ranking formula. My quality point values favor warm to hot conditions, but adjusting them to favor more temperate conditions would make a significant difference in how cities are ranked. See the table below for my original quality points (left column) and one set of alternative values (right column).
Monthly Mean Temperature Quality Points
Original Quality Points Temperature Range Alternative Quality Points
-7 <0 degrees -7
-6 0-9 -6
-5 10-19 -5
-4 20-29 -4
-3 30-39 -3
-2 40-49 -2
-1 50-54 -1
0 55-59 1
1 60-64 3
2 65-69 2
3 70-74 1
2 75-79 0
1 80-84 -1
0 85-89 -3
-1 90-95 -5
-3 >95 -7
So plugging in the alternative monthly mean quality points to my formula (and holding all other variables the same as in the original formula) yields the following ranking for the 30 largest metropolitan areas.
Climate Rankings for the 30 Largest Metropolitan Areas
Rank Metropolitan Area Climate Score
1 San Diego, CA 39.7
2 Los Angeles, CA 36.8
3 San Francisco, CA 35.4
4 Tampa, FL 29.8
5 Miami, FL 29.0
6 Orlando, FL 27.5
7 Riverside, CA 24.3
8 Houston, TX 22.8
9 Sacramento, CA 20.4
10 San Antonio, TX 18.5
11 Portland, OR 17.4
12 Seattle, WA 16.7
13 Atlanta, GA 14.6
14 Dallas, TX 12.0
15 Phoenix, AZ 10.0
16 Baltimore, MD 7.4
17 Washington, DC 6.0
18 Las Vegas, NV 5.5
19 Philadelphia, PA 4.2
20 New York, NY 2.8
21 Cincinnati, OH 2.3
22 Denver, CO 1.1
23 Boston, MA 1.0
24 St. Louis, MO 0.6
25 Kansas City, MO 0.3
26 Chicago, IL -0.2
27 Pittsburgh, PA -0.4
28 Cleveland, OH -0.7
29 Detroit, OH -1.9
30 Minneapolis, MN -13.1
San Diego has perhaps the best climate in the country
This alternative ranking clearly favors temperate Coastal California over Florida and Texas. Moreover, Seattle and Portland now rank higher than Phoenix. Las Vegas moves down the rankings. Denver fares a bit better compared to other “cold” cities. Is this alternative ranking better than the original? Or jumping back to the beginning of this post, does San Francisco have a better climate than Miami? I’m sure some readers will answer yes to both these questions. I definitely prefer my original rankings, but I think better accommodating the pleasantness of temperate conditions and the unpleasantness of very hot conditions results in a logical, reasonable shift in the overall rankings. The perfect climate may be largely a question of taste, something that hopefully my system accommodates. Climate rankings using the alternative monthly mean quality points for all 262 U.S. metropolitan areas are provided below.The Perfect Climate – Part 5
I’ll continue this series with my next post that provides climate rankings (using both my original and alternative systems) for major cities around the world. What international city has the perfect climate? How does Rome compare to Los Angeles, Tokyo to New York, or Moscow to Chicago? Look for the answers in The Perfect Climate – Part 5.
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NOTES:
[1] Though it had been such a mild winter in my home of Maryland that I was less shocked by the heat than I may have been in previous years.
[2] Consider that the major cities with the highest mean annual temperatures are Honolulu, Hawaii, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale, all places known for their balmy climates.
[3] Consider that the major cities with the lowest difference between the hottest and coldest months are Honolulu, San Francisco, and San Diego, all places known for their pleasant climates.
[4] For instance, a monthly average temperature of 73 degrees (Baltimore in September) is much better than a monthly average temperature of 21 degrees (Minneapolis in February).
[5] A daily difference of just 10 degrees (Key West, Florida) is better than a difference of 30 or more degrees (Flagstaff, Arizona).
[6] From weather.com.
[7] (annual mean temperature * 0.5) – (annual temperature variance *0.5) + (quality points for monthly average temperature and diurnal temperature difference * 0.5). The quality points are assessed based on discreet ranges. See The Perfect Climate – Part 1 for the details.
[8] Keep in mind that the climate score value is meaningless in and of itself, and should be used as a relative comparison of places. Miami’s score of 44.9 is better than Houston’s score of 29.5, which is better than New York’s score of 4.3, and so on. Miami has a better climate than Houston, which has a better climate than New York.
[9] Climate Score - (0.5 x (Mean Annual Temp. - 65))
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Conroy’s Alternative Climate Rankings (City – Climate Score):
See the full Original Rankings here.
[the 30 largest cities are bolded]
1. SAN DIEGO, CA - 39.7
2. Oxnard, CA - 37.9
3. LOS ANGELES, CA - 36.8
4. Oceanside, CA - 36.7
5. Santa Barbara, CA - 36.0
6. SAN FRANCISCO, CA - 35.4
7. Oakland, CA - 32.5
8. Monterey-Salinas, CA - 32.1
9. San Luis Obispo, CA - 31.8
10. Honolulu, HI - 30.5
11. Fort Lauderdale, FL - 30.3
12. West Palm Beach, FL - 29.8
13. TAMPA, FL - 29.8
14. Palm Bay, FL - 29.3
15. MIAMI, FL - 29.0
16. Naples, FL - 28.8
17. Sarasota, FL - 28.8
18. San Jose, CA - 28.4
19. Fort Myers, FL - 28.3
20. Daytona Beach, FL - 27.8
21. ORLANDO, FL - 27.5
22. Lakeland, FL - 27.3
23. Brownsville, TX - 27.3
24. Ocala, FL - 25.3
25. Santa Rosa, CA - 25.1
26. Jacksonville, FL - 25.0
27. Gainesville, TX - 24.8
28. RIVERSIDE, CA - 24.3
29. New Orleans, LA - 24.0
30. Corpus Christi, TX - 23.8
31. Brunswick, GA - 23.8
32. Biloxi, MS - 23.8
33. HOUSTON, TX - 22.8
34. Lafayette, LA - 22.8
35. Victoria, TX - 22.5
36. Beaumont, TX - 22.5
37. Pensacola, FL - 22.5
38. McAllen, TX - 22.0
39. Charleston, SC - 21.8
40. Lake Charles, LA - 21.0
41. Tallahassee, FL - 20.5
42. SACRAMENTO, CA - 20.4
43. Mobile, AL - 19.8
44. Panama City, FL - 19.8
45. Baton Rouge, LA - 19.0
46. Valdosta, GA - 19.0
47. SAN ANTONIO, TX - 18.5
48. Modesto, CA - 18.4
49. Fort Watson, FL - 18.0
50. Stockton, CA - 17.5
51. PORTLAND, OR - 17.4
52. Savannah, GA - 17.0
53. College Station, TX - 16.8
54. Austin, TX - 16.8
55. Columbus, GA - 16.8
56. Visalia, CA - 16.8
57. SEATTLE, WA - 16.7
58. Alexandrian, LA - 16.5
59. Albany, GA - 16.5
60. Hattiesburg, MS - 16.3
61. Dothan, AL - 16.3
62. Wilmington, NC - 16.2
63. Merced, CA - 16.1
64. Tyler, TX - 16.0
65. Bellingham, WA - 15.5
66. Jacksonville, NC - 15.3
67. Laredo, TX - 15.3
68. Montgomery, AL - 15.3
69. Thomasville, AL - 15.2
70. Myrtle Beach, SC - 15.2
71. Macon, GA - 15.0
72. Fresno, CA - 14.8
73. Bakersfield, CA - 14.7
74. ATLANTA, GA - 14.6
75. Shreveport, LA - 14.5
76. Columbia, SC - 14.3
77. Tucson, AZ - 14.0
78. Jackson, MS - 14.0
79. Augusta, GA - 13.8
80. Texarkana, AR - 13.5
81. Salem, OR - 13.5
82. Athens, GA - 13.5
83. Chico, CA - 13.3
84. Virginia Beach, VA - 13.2
85. Greenville, NC - 12.9
86. Odessa, TX - 12.7
87. Monroe, LA - 12.6
88. Charlotte, NC - 12.4
89. El Paso, TX - 12.3
90. Greenville, SC - 12.3
91. Tuscaloosa, AL - 12.2
92. Birmingham, AL - 12.1
93. Eugene, OR - 12.1
94. Fayetteville, NC - 12.0
95. DALLAS, TX - 12.0
96. San Angelo, TX - 11.9
97. Memphis, TN - 11.4
98. Redding, CA - 11.3
99. Yuma, AZ - 11.3
100. Palm Springs, CA - 11.3
101. El Centro, CA - 11.0
102. Waco, TX - 11.0
103. Knoxville, TN - 10.8
104. Abilene, TX - 10.7
105. Rocky Mount, NC - 10.7
106. Raleigh, NC - 10.5
107. PHOENIX, AZ - 10.0
108. Little Rock, AR - 9.8
109. Hickory, NC - 9.6
110. Chattanooga, TN - 9.5
111. Decatur, AL - 9.4
112. Medford, OR - 9.4
113. Jackson, TN - 9.3
114. Salisbury, MD - 9.0
115. Asheville, NC - 8.9
116. Winston-Salem, NC - 8.8
117. Las Cruces, NM - 8.6
118. Nashville, TN - 8.5
119. Atlantic City, NJ - 8.4
120. Fort Smith, AR - 8.1
121. Wichita Fall, TX - 7.6
122. BALTIMORE, MD - 7.4
123. Lubbock, TX - 7.3
124. Roanoke, Va - 6.7
125. Richmond, VA - 6.6
126. Charlottesville, VA - 6.3
127. Lawton, OK - 6.2
128. WASHINGTON, DC - 6.0
129. Tulsa, OK - 5.9
130. Lynchburg, VA - 5.7
131. Dover, DE - 5.7
132. Jonesboro, AR - 5.7
133. LAS VEGAS, NV - 5.5
134. Charleston, WV - 5.3
135. Danville, VA - 5.2
136. Johnson City, TN - 5.2
137. Prescott, AZ - 5.1
138. Amarillo, TX - 5.0
139. Louisville, KY - 5.0
140. St. George, UT - 4.6
141. Lexington, KY - 4.6
142. Fayeteville, AR - 4.5
143. Albuquerque, NM - 4.4
144. Clarksville, TN - 4.4
145. Oklahoma City, OK - 4.3
146. Lake Havasu City, AZ - 4.3
147. PHILADELPHIA, PA - 4.2
148. Bowling Green, KY - 4.1
149. Kennewick, WA - 3.7
150. Morgantown, WV - 3.7
151. Evansville, IN - 3.3
152. Springfield, MO - 2.9
153. NEW YORK, NY - 2.8
154. Joplin, MO - 2.8
155. Salt Lake City, UT - 2.6
156. Huntington, WV - 2.5
157. Harrisburg, PA - 2.5
158. Trenton, NJ - 2.4
159. CINCINNATI, OH - 2.3
160. Boise, ID - 1.7
161. Boulder, CO - 1.5
162. Lancaster, PA - 1.4
163. Wheeling, WV - 1.2
164. DENVER, CO - 1.1
165. Reno, NV - 1.1
166. Bend, OR - 1.1
167. Providence, RI - 1.1
168. BOSTON, MA - 1.0
169. York, PA - 1.0
170. Couer d'Alene, ID - 0.6
171. Marietta, OH - 0.6
172. ST. LOUIS, MO - 0.6
173. Akron, OH - 0.5
174. Toledo, OH - 0.4
175. Columbus, OH - 0.4
176. Dayton, OH - 0.3
177. Hagerstown, MD - 0.3
178. Bloomington, IN - 0.3
179. KANSAS CITY, MO - 0.3
180. Indianapolis, IN - -0.1
181. CHICAGO, IL - -0.2
182. Youngstown, OH - -0.2
183. Erie, PA - -0.2
184. PITTSBURGH, PA - -0.4
185. Terre Haute, IN - -0.4
186. CLEVELAND, OH - -0.7
187. Provo, UT - -0.9
188. Columbia, MO - -1.0
189. Yakima, WA - -1.1
190. Farmington, NM - -1.2
191. Springfield, MA - -1.2
192. Buffalo, NY - -1.3
193. Manhattan, KS - -1.3
194. Springfield, IL - -1.7
195. Allentown, PA - -1.7
196. Santa Fe, NM - -1.8
197. Altoona, PA - -1.8
198. Wichita, KS - -1.9
199. Scranton, PA - -1.9
200. DETROIT, MI - -1.9
201. Fort Collins, CO - -1.9
202. Canton, OH - -2.0
203. Topeka, KS - -2.1
204. Lafayette, IN - -2.5
205. Williamsport, PA - -2.6
206. Bridgeport-New Haven, CT - -2.6
207. Rochester, NY - -2.7
208. Spokane, WA - -2.8
209. Norwich, CT - -2.8
210. Flagstaff, AZ - -2.9
211. Kalamazoo, MI - -3.1
212. St. Joseph, MO - -3.3
213. Hartford, CT - -3.3
214. Mansfield, OH - -3.4
215. Saginaw, MI - -3.7
216. Champaign, IL - -3.8
217. Colorado Springs, CO - -3.9
218. Pueblo, CO - -3.9
219. Ogden, UT - -3.4
220. Davenport, IA - -3.4
221. South Bend, IN - -4.0
222. Binghampton, NY - -4.1
223. Fort Wayne, IN - -4.3
224. Poughkeepsie, NY - -4.4
225. Elmira, NY - -4.8
226. Syracuse, NY - -4.8
227. Utica, NY - -5.1
228. Grand Rapids, MI - -5.1
229. Grand Junction, CO - -5.6
230. Portland, ME - -5.6
231. Missoula, MT - -5.8
232. Peoria, IL - -5.9
233. Billings, MT - -5.9
234. Albany, NY - -6.0
235. Lansing, MI - -6.1
236. Iowa City, IA - -6.3
237. Milwaukee, WI - -6.4
238. Omaha, NE - -7.4
239. Des Moines, IA - -7.5
240. Lincoln, NE - -7.9
241. Rockford, IL - -8.2
242. Idaho Falls, ID - -8.4
243. Cedar Rapids, IA - -8.8
244. Sioux City, IA - -9.1
245. Bangor, ME - -9.4
246. Burlington, VT - -9.4
247. Rapid City, SD - -9.6
248. La Crosse, WI - -10.3
249. Waterloo, IA - -10.4
250. Manchester, NH - -10.8
251. Madison, WI - -11.5
252. Green Bay, WI - -11.8
253. MINNEAPOLIS, MN - -13.1
254. Wausau, WI - -14.2
255. Sioux Falls, SD - -14.9
256. Eau Claire, WI - -15.5
257. Duluth, MN - -16.3
258. Anchorage, AK - -16.4
259. Bismarck, ND - -18.8
260. St. Cloud, MN - -18.9
261. Fargo, ND - -20.3
262. Fairbanks, AK - -37.3
