The New England Patriots are going to be tested. Their season has entered Act II. The whole has been setting up, building up for these two weeks for the Patriots. This is the climax, the point-of-no-return. However the rest of the season unfolds depends on these two weeks.
I have been circling them on the schedule since the season started. These are the two games where we will see what the Patriots are made of and what type of Patriots team this is. Are they going to turn into Super Bowl contender like in 2003, 2004, 2011; a powerhouse that charges through the playoffs like in 2007; or an also-ran like 2006, 2008, and 2010? These two games are going to define the 2012 season for the New England Patriots. This week it’s the Houston Texans, the top team in the AFC. They have shown that they can win with both offense and defense. They are mentally tough, winning two overtime games in five days. They have the best defensive player in football in J.J. Watt, and their offense can beat you through the air or on the ground. Monday night, the Patriots are playing for a first-round bye. If they win, they will almost certainly not have to play wild-card weekend, but moreover, they could also move up and get home-advantage if things break their way. Something more important is at stack Monday night, though. If the Patriots win, then we know this team is a contender. Then, the 49ers, arguably the best team in the NFC, come into town. They have the NFC’s best defense, and will test the shorthanded Patriots’ offense. The 49ers beat you with defense and wearing you down to get big plays, something the Patriots are very prone to giving up. Both games will be hard, if they prove they can stick with the best teams, they can prove their record isn’t the result of an easy schedule.
This season the Patriots are 7-1 against teams under .500, their lone loss coming to the Arizona Cardinals, which looks like an awful loss right now. The combined record of those opponents is 28-43. Against teams over .500 this season, the Patriots are 2-2 with their two losses on the road and their two wins coming at home. The combined record of those teams is 33-15. The Baltimore loss looks even worse now as Baltimore’s 9-3 record could easily be 6-6, and Indianapolis’ 8-4 is a product of an easy schedule. The Broncos are a different team now then when the Patriots played them, and the Patriots lone game where they played an NFC team on the road1 was a sloppy loss to the Seahawks, who aren’t even the best team in their own division.
So, I shouldn’t have to tell you this for you to know, but the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers are the best teams that the Patriots have played all year. The same can’t be said for the Texans who have played Green Bay and Chicago2, or the 49ers, who have played the Packers and Giants. The Patriots will be tested in this game. There is no doubt, but this is the measuring stick game, and then the 49ers come into Foxborough next week. This two game stretch for the Patriots is their season.
If the Patriots win these next two games they will be at 11-3, hold tie breakers with Denver and Houston, have two signature wins, and then have Jacksonville and Miami on the schedule to finish off the year. They will have a first-round bye sewn up, and possibly home-field advantage. Tom Brady will be launched ahead of Peyton Manning in MVP talk if he plays well. Those wins will show that the Patriots are a top team, and that thinking of planning a February trip to New Orleans might not be such a bad idea. More importantly, it will show that the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender.
If the Patriots lose these next two games they will be 9-5, and not have one good win on their schedule. They’ll have to play the Steelers on wildcard weekend, while Peyton gets to rest instead of playing in Denver’s frigid weather. The road through the playoffs will be much tougher, and hell, even if they get far it’s unlikely they will win. Gronkowski will have to come back a week early because they couldn’t get a bye, he will be playing less than 100% and will be ineffective. More importantly, they will just be an also ran: a footnote on the season.
I wrote about this earlier this season. I hate how people doubt my two favorite Patriots: Belichick and Brady. These two games are important for this season, but also to them. Time is running out, and who knows how long that window will stay open. The Patriots clinched their 10th division title of the Brady/Belichick era last week. I’ve been spoiled, as all Patriot fans have, but I know just like every other Patriots fan and player knows that the division crown in not the ultimate goal. No, now the real test begins, and believe me: the Patriots will be tested.
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Picks last week: 10-6
Picks Overall: 99-64-1
Broncos @ Raiders-
Pick: Broncos
Cowboys @ Bengals-
Pick: Bengals
Ravens @ Redskins-
Pick: Redskins
Rams @ Bills-
Pick: Bils
Eagles @ Buccaneers-
Pick: Buccaneers
Falcons @ Panthers-
Pick: Falcons
Chiefs @ Browns-
Pick: Browns
Chargers @ Steelers-
Pick: Steelers
Titans @ Colts-
Pick: Colts
Jets @ Jaguars-
Pick: Jaguars
Bears @ Vikings-
Pick: Bears
Dolphins @ 49ers-
Pick: 49ers
Cardinals @ Seahawks-
Pick: Seahawks
Saints @ Giants-
Pick: Giants
Lions @ Packers-
Pick: Packers
Texans @ Patriots-
Pick: Not making one, I’m watching this as a fan, waiting to see what my favorite team is made of.
- The St. Louis game was played in London, and let’s face it: New England…England…basically a home game.
- This is the Chicago team with a healthy Jay Cutler.
