This Opinion piece in the New York Times set off a wave of commentary. In the article, Erle C. Ellis, an ecologist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, argued that humans, as a species, were not using far more resources than the planet could continue providing. He also floated the idea that the carrying capacity of the earth might be an irrelevant question based on the social and technological strategies humans use to survive and thrive. His main point is that humans are largely removed from the wild and have been living beyond the “natural” carrying capacity of ecosystems for millennia due to their special strategies. He tries to clarify his ideas in a follow-up response after so much initial criticism:
I did not intend this to be an op-ed about population. My goal was to correct a widespread misunderstanding about how humans sustain themselves. Aside from wild fish and a few remaining wild products, agriculture and industrial systems are the primary life support systems for humanity today. Even before agriculture, human societies required technologies and social strategies to sustain their populations well above what natural ecosystems could provide. Moreover, denser populations tend to drive increasingly productive and efficient use of land. Scientists who study long-term human/environment relationships, such as archaeologists and environmental historians, know of this as “intensification” or “niche construction”.
Though there are challenges and problems with our transformation of the natural world, he eventually takes a positive look at our future, saying that “based on existing technological capabilities, the 9 to 10 billion humans now forecasted for this century – when human populations are expected to peak- can be sustained using existing resources. [...] It is possible, though challenging, for both humanity and biodiversity to thrive in the Anthropocene. ”
However, this comes with a caveat: “The prospects for conserving and restoring biodiversity will depend on the priorities and effectiveness of human social systems.”
It’s a very interesting question that Ellis raises. Are we up for the challenge or have we tilted ourselves too far out of balance with the ecosystems in which we live?
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