Still the best pitch in baseball no matter how
good the batter is.
But there's a different way to look at those first pitch stats. Unfortunately, the stats that follow are rarely, if ever, considered. It's a shame because they can add to every pitcher's confidence level if shown to them. Let's look at what I see to be a flaw in first pitch hitting stats and then do some math to help make the case.
To make it easy, we'll use a team as an example. Let us say that a certain team had a first pitch batting average of .400 during their last game. Sounds good, right? But in reality, what that really means is that they batted .400 "when they put the ball in play." Most calculations don't take into account all the times a first pitch is not put in play even when the pitch is a strike.
There are five things that can happen on a first pitch strike:
- It can be taken for a strike.
- It can be fouled off.
- It can be put into play resulting in an out.
- It can be put into play resulting in an error.
- It can be put into play for a hit.
The first point for pitchers to take from this is that only one of those five things raises a batting average. The other four do not. The next point is that the first two are not even considered in the first-pitch average math at all. That, in my opinion, is where the flaw exists.
Let us say that the team mentioned above put the first pitch into play ten times over the course of the game, four of them resulting in hits. That's where the .400 average comes from. But let us also say that the pitcher threw twenty first pitch strikes over the course of the nine inning game. Four ended up being put into play for hits but the other sixteen were not. Four hits in twenty at-bats is a .200 average. Of course, that is vastly different from the .400 average that was initially presented. Sort of softens the "great first pitch hitting team" description a bit doesn't it?
Obviously, there are, by comparison, good first pitch hitters. However, informing a pitching staff that a team or particular hitter is batting .400 on the first pitch may result in a reluctance to throw first pitch strikes. Analyzing the numbers and presenting them as I described gives a very different - I would say more realistic - picture and may improve the confidence a pitcher needs in order to go after hitters early in the count.