A ship scans the sea in recovery of Chinese balloon (Getty)
Many Americans probably are looking to the skies with quizzical eyes after four mysterious flying objects were shot down from North American airspace in a recent eight-day span. It started with the downing of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon on Feb. 4 and continued through Sunday (Feb. 12), when an unidentified flying object (UFO) was shot down over Lake Huron in Michigan. In between, similar objects were shot down near Alaska and over Canada -- and those most recent three objects remain unidentified.
Naturally, such peculiar events raise questions about aliens, while some might prefer to ignore the whole thing -- assuming some innocuous explanation will surface in the coming days. But according to a report at Axios, "The chain of events — perhaps based on increased vigilance rather than fresh threats — has no peacetime precedent, Defense officials said." Even a senior U.S. military official is not ruling out aliens -- or any other possible explanation -- at this time, according to a report at Reuters:
The U.S. Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said on Sunday after a series of shoot-downs of unidentified objects that he would not rule out aliens or any other explanation yet, deferring to U.S. intelligence experts.
Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three airborne objects shot down by U.S. warplanes in as many days, General Glen VanHerck said: "I'll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven't ruled out anything."
If Gen. VanHerck isn't dismissing the recent events in the skies, perhaps we shouldn't either. And so, we turn to The New York Times and a clear-eyed analysis at today's The Morning newsletter. Reporter German Lopez views the odd events through the lens of U.S.-China relations, noting that we could be seeing early signs of a second Cold War:
There is still a lot we don’t know about the Chinese spy balloon and the three other objects the U.S. military shot out of the sky in recent days.
U.S. officials have not explained what kind of information the spy balloon was trying to obtain. They have revealed little about the other objects, though they did acknowledge yesterday that the three objects were not sending out communication signals. But we have yet to learn what those objects were or what they were for.
China’s role is another unanswered question. The U.S. has drawn a clear link between China and the spy balloon, though not with the other three objects. It’s not clear whether the balloon was a sign that China is getting more aggressive, or if the U.S. is simply now detecting a kind of surveillance China has been doing for a long time.
The lack of answers has prompted much speculation. Some of it is silly, including jokes about aliens and U.F.O.s. Much of it is serious, about a potential second Cold War, this time between the U.S. and China.
Today’s newsletter will break through the speculation and memes to explain what we know, and don’t, about these flying objects and the implications of escalating tensions between the world’s two biggest powers.
Lopez provides a wrap-up of what we do know, so far -- including a timeline of events:
On three straight days starting Friday, the U.S. detected and shot down unidentified flying objects — first around Alaska, then over Canada and lastly over Lake Huron. They were low enough to pose a threat to civilian aircraft, John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said yesterday. (Here’s a timeline of the events.)
None made it as far into the U.S. as the earlier Chinese spy balloon, which drifted across the continental U.S. before the military shot it down on Feb. 4 near the coast of South Carolina.
China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian weather research airship that was blown off course. U.S. officials have released more details about what they say is a Chinese spy program that has sent high-altitude balloons over more than 40 countries for years.
The three most recent objects, with no apparent ties to China, raise a whole host of questions, Lopez writes:
None [of the objects] made it as far into the U.S. as the earlier Chinese spy balloon, which drifted across the continental U.S. before the military shot it down on Feb. 4 near the coast of South Carolina.
China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian weather research airship that was blown off course. U.S. officials have released more details about what they say is a Chinese spy program that has sent high-altitude balloons over more than 40 countries for years.
Is the U.S. using similar surveillance technology over China? American officials denied China’s allegations that the U.S. is flying high-altitude balloons over Chinese airspace. That response leaves open the possibility that the U.S. is using balloons over disputed territory or that it surveils China through other means, such as planes and satellites, as it has in the past.
All of this could have unsettling implications for certain hot spots where U.S. and Chinese interests might collide:
Relations between the U.S. and China had deteriorated in recent years as the Trump and Biden administrations took a more aggressive tone than previous administrations and imposed trade restrictions. But officials from both countries had recently started to work to mend ties.
The balloon episode could hurt those efforts. “As the U.S. has made clear it’s not going to just let this fade, the Chinese response has gotten more aggressive,” said my colleague Vivian Wang, who covers China.
In that sense, the flying objects are a case study for how tensions between the U.S. and China can rapidly escalate. Many analysts worry that existing strains between the two countries, like those over the status of Taiwan and China’s territorial claims over nearby waters, could quickly transform into a deadly conflict.
“That could be Taiwan. It could be the South China Sea. It could be an unplanned military encounter in the sea or air,” said my colleague Chris Buckley, who also covers China. “As we see with balloons — who predicted a balloon mini-crisis? — the possible permutations are endless.”
There is another side to this, too: the risk of de-escalating too far. For years, some analysts have argued that the U.S. has done too little to contain China. In its response to the balloon, the Biden administration may be trying to show China that the U.S. is taking a more forceful approach than it has in the past.
