I see that some political prognosticator puts the Dems' chance of retaking the House in 2014 at 1%. It's probably less than that. Remember that, in 2012, Democratic candidates for US House won about a million more votes than did Republicans. But this million-vote "victory" resulted in a 234-201 Republican advantage in representation. Something approaching a national landslide is required for Democrats to win control of the US House.
Congressional boundaries plainly are drawn in a way that favors Republicans. Here in the metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul, for instance, there are five congressional districts, three represented by Republicans, two by Democrats. But there are more Democrats than Republicans in the region covered by these five districts. In the last election, both Obama and the five Democratic candidates running for US House received about 55% of the votes cast in the region. But a 55-45 split in favor of the Dems resulted in a 3-2 Republican advantage in actual representation.
It's a similar story across the country, especially in large states with a fairly even split between the two parties. In the last election, Obama won 52% of the vote in Pennsylvania, but Republicans won 13 of 18 congressional races. In Michigan, Obama won 54% of the vote, but Republicans won 9 of 14 House races. Florida: Obama won with 50%, but Republicans won 17 of 27 congressional races. Virginia: Obama, 51%; Republicans, 8 of 11 House seats. Ohio: Obama, 51%; Republicans, 12 of 16 House seats.
It's not that Republican candidates for Congress are so much better than their presidential nominee. God no! Mitt Romney was a poor candidate but Michele Bachmann is a laughingstock--and she's not the only one. The chasm between public opinion in a state and the makeup of the state's congressional delegation is mostly a result of careful boundary drawing between districts.
So what's my point?
First, it's not really news that the Democrats have no chance of winning back the House. In the ebb and flow of the political tides, the Dems are currently a bit down, and, as I said, a national route in their favor would be required for them to win a congressional majority. Second, if all we did was count votes, instead of drawing lines around people before counting their votes, Republican prospects would be a helluva lot worse than they are. Third, American democracy is in need of reform--and I don't mean the kind that makes it harder for people to vote, which has the desired effect of making Congress even less representative of national opinion than it already is.
