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TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to Get Off!

Posted on the 22 November 2013 by Phil's Stock World @philstockworld

Look at this chart – there's only 15% of us (bears) left yet still the MSM attacks us – why???  Why indeed?  What are they afraid of?  Why do Central Banksters Bernanke, Draghi and Kuroda all feel the need to say "What bubble?" in the same week?  As a parent, I know when my kids deny something too much – it's a lot more likely that they KNOW they did a bad, bad thing

Anyway, I am not a bear, I am just a Fundamental Investor who doesn't see anything worth buying BECAUSE IT'S TOO FRIGGIN' EXPENSIVE!  Is that bearish?  Once upon a time it used to be called rational.  And it's not like there's NOTHING to buy, just yesterday, in our fabulous Webinar, we found bullish plays we liked for ABX, FTR and DBA.  So, gold, communications and food, interestingly enough, are out of favor enough to be relative bargains in this runaway market.  Why?  Because they have real earnings that are hard to extrapolate to infinity.  

TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to Get Off!
Infinity an beyond is where this market is projected to go as the Yellen Fed promises to be even more doevish than the Bernanke Fed and the STAWealth chart on the right predits S&P 2,200 in 2015, at a cost of "only" $2Tn more Dollars on the Fed's balance sheet.  

Thank goodness we never have to pay that back and… what?  Oh, we do?  Oh shit!  

Well, at least we have a robust US economy that's creating Millions of jobs that will drive our GDP higher faster than the Fed and the Government drive our debt to infinity and beyond and…. what?  We don't?  Son of a bitch!  

TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to Get Off!

Well, you know jobs aren't everything, are they?  Highly overrated economic indicators of a bygone era where people mattered.  Fortunately, our economy is in a new paradigm that can motor on without any actual workers doing work and earning incomes and stuff and… what?  It's not?  F*CK! 

TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to Get Off!

Well, at least we know housing is turning around and that's going to… what?  Oh come on!  

TGIF – Stop the Rally, We Want to Get Off!

Really?  And only 15% of you (and falling) believe this data may indicate an underlying problem?  Really?  

Well, just like you don't want to be 100% bullish on the way up, you don't want to be 100% bearish and that's why, in weekend Chat, I suggested to our Members the DDM (ultra-long Dow) Dec $102/110 bull call spread at $4.50 with $3.50 of potential upside (78%) if the Dow "even twitches higher."  Well twitch it did and DDM is now $107.33 with the Dow at 16,009 and the $102 calls are $7 and the $110 calls are .85 for net $6.15 on the spread already – up 36% in 4 days!  

See, you don't have to be mindlessly bullish to make money in this market, even the mindfully bearish can take a few bullish pokes.  Face it, we're in a market that is so fake that even Charles Schwab himself is telling people it's manipulated (4:30) and investors are getting sick of it.  

Still, as Schwab notes, it's the only game in town so we continue to play it with caution.  I once again called for cash going into the pre-holiday weekend and I'd rather enjoy next week with my family, watching from the sidelines, than sweat over this crazy market on what's likely to be a very low-volume affair next week.  It's not likely we head lower next week, it's the first week of December I'm really concerned about but then it's Santa Rally time so why not keep ourselves flexible when we can always make 36% in 4 days betting the Dow goes higher – especially if it's got that 16,000 line to hold the downside.  

If that line does fail – well, then we'll be glad we cashed out, right?  

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil

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