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Terrible Tuesday – Powell Says US Faces Slow, Uncertain Recovery

Posted on the 22 September 2020 by Phil's Stock World @philstockworld

Terrible Tuesday – Powell Says US Faces Slow, Uncertain RecoveryPowell testifies before Congress today.

We already know what he's going to say though, as his testimony is pre-released.  Not that that will stop the market from acting shocked when they hear it later (because who reads?).   That means we can short the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) again below the 11,000 line (or the 11,100 line if we hit that first) with tight stops above as it's a high-percentage play as you have a clear line to take a small loss while even a small dip should take us down 50 points for a $1,000 per contract gain.  So, if we stop out with a $50 loss but could have a $1,000 gain – that's what we mean by a high-percentage play.

Many economic indicators show marked improvement,” Powell said Monday in the text of testimony he’s scheduled to deliver before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday.  “Both employment and overall economic activity, however, remain well below their pre-pandemic levels, and the path ahead continues to be highly uncertain,” he says.  

Hedgeye on Twitter: Powell will appear alongside Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a quarterly exercise mandated by the Cares Act passed by Congress in March and which appropriated about $2Tn to help speed the U.S. recovery. The pair are likely to face questions about their use of Cares Act funds and about what else should still be done.

“The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government.”

Well, good luck with that! 

According to the Congressional Budget Office our National Debt is on a path to be double the size of our entire economy by 2050 but that's based on it being 200% of GDP while GDP also doubles in size but, at the moment, GDP is shrinking and debt is up 25% of our GDP this year alone.  At that pace, we'll be laughing at Japan's 300% Debt to GDP ratio in no time.  

It's doubtful Congress will bring that up as they are, even now, talking about spending $1.5-2Tn more this year, which would…

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