We’re back, and we are missing a lot of typical Emmy dramas. If you follow me, you know there are very few people who can touch me in terms of how many shows I watch, and the knowledge of what shows should and should not be nominated. With that said, I always try and pretend the Emmy voters are going to make broad changes. This year almost forces them to, as not only did they lose Succession, but staples like The White lotus, The LAst Of Us, house Of The Dragon, and The HandMaid’s Tale didn’t produce new episodes. It feels like it’s been forever since Apple’s breakthrough Severance. So what is likely to benefit from this? The same old shit? well, not so fast.
1) Will be Nominated: The Crown (Netflix)
Should Be Nominated: Loki (Disney Plus)
The crown’s divisive final season, which went out with a whimper, is likely to pick up nominations because this show has perpetually always been nominated. it won’t win a single Emmy in a major category, but it’ll take a drama series spot, and some acting slots, because with this show, you can count on the fact that Emmy voters were watching. I’d much rather see the nomination go to Loki, whose second season ended on a strong note, and really gave quality storytelling to an embattled Marvel, and a content starved Disney plus. Loki should be here, but he won’t be.
2) Will Be Nominated: The morning show (Apple plus)
Should Be Nominated: The Morning Show (Apple Plus)
This is a nomination I can get behind. The show had such a creative surge in the third season, coming off of a plot that saw Alex (Jennifer Aniston) document her Covid struggles. Coming out of this, there were lots of talks about starting a streaming service, the crowded marketplace, being a person of color in this world and feeling like you’re suffocating, holding power accountable, and an equally strong turn from Bradley (Reese Witherspoon), who struggled with protecting her brother who was at the January 6th insurrection. Jon Hamm was a great cast addition, and is likely to be a double nominee this year.
3) Will Be Nominated: Shogun (FX)
Should be Nominated: Shogun (FX)
After FX made a surprising decision to renew this for two more seasons, Shogun went from a very competitive Limited Series race to a less competitive drama series race. Even with a cast that almost never speaks in English, this brilliant and violent show is likely to win. Remember, Squid Game took this prize a few years ago. They have no problem with international talent, or programming. The question is which of Shogun’s leading men will win the Actor race.
4) Will Be Nominated: Fallout (Amazon)
Should Be Nominated: Fallout (Amazon)
Filling the void left behind by The Last of Us, Fallout landed at the right time. It was a hit with audiences and critics, and while it likely won’t win any major category awards, it will get a few nominations. Amazon’s second strongest contender hasn’t been picked up for a second season yet, meaning Amazon is less confident in that show. Can they get two series nominations? Sure. Will they? I don’t know.
5) Will be Nominated: Three Body problem (Netflix)
Should Be Nominated: three Body Problem (Netflix)
The show runners behind Game Of Thrones moved to Netflix, and got a show that was enough of a hit that Netflix confirmed that this is a three season show. it did take a minute to get that renewal, but it did happen. It’s easier to predict that Emmy voters jumped aboard a phenomenon than that they will suddenly start nominating something in its 3rd or 4th season.
6) Will Be Nominated: Mr and Mrs Smith (Amazon)
Should Be Nominated: Outer Range (Amazon)
I’d love to see Amazon get behind their trippy Josh Brolin western, but this freshman drama, which many people originally thought would be aiming for a Comedy nomination, is likely to land Amazon’s second series nomination. It is well liked by critics, and both of its stars are coming off of TV shows that were critically adored. It is weird that Amazon isn’t going all out by announcing a second season, which would seem like a logical step, but there’s enough here that I feel like this might happen.
7) Will Be Nominated: Will Trent (ABC)
Should Be Nominated: Elsabeth (CBS)
I think Carrie Preston has a shot at Actress, but Emmy voters routinely ignored The Good fight. how slow is this season? Slow enough that we might nominate a network drama. This is a show that is critically adored, and actually has landed its star several nominations outside of the Emmys. It is not totally out of the real of possibility that this earns a nomination in its second season. I won’t jump in on a third or fourth season, which is why I’m avoiding Slow Horses, but many shows get a Sophomore boost. the later the run, the harder the chance.
8) Will Be Nominated: The Guilded Age (HBo/MAX)
Should Be Nominated: For All Mankind ( Apple plus)
I’m a big fan of For All Mankind, so I gotta throw that a mention. I don’t know why it has never registered with voters, but it’s one of my favorite shows on TV, and has no shot. I find The Guilded Age to be boring, but with so little for HBO/MAX to push, and a star studded cast, I feel like this is gonna White Lotus its way through the supporting categories.
Possible Dark horses:
9) Slow horses (Apple Plus)
That showing over at the British TV equivalent to the Emmy’s really does help the shows chances, but I think this is limited to a nomination for Gary Oldman. but, I acknowledge it might surprise for its final season.
10) The curse (Showtime)
Showtime’s A24 collaboration wasn’t that well received. I think that with time, and some newer hits, The curse got pushed out by more fresh choices like Fallout and Three Body Problem.
11) Bridgerton (Netflix)
it has been nominated before. Yes, the second season was less well received, and the Queen Charlotte limited really underperforme at the Emmy’s, but with a slow news cycle, if not enough voters jumped in to watch one of the new shows, they might still be watching Bridgerton.
12) Emmy Voters Remember That AMC Exists
AMC, which once was a major player in this category with picks like Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul, and The Walking Dead, has somehow just gone the way of the dodo as people are cord cutting. It’s got three really well received shows, interview With A vampire, dark Winds, and Parish. The thing is, all of these normally would be in contention, but as Better Call Saul never received a single Emmy, it seems like critics love to talk about how great the AMC programming is, and Emmy voters love to bitch about The Crown but still nominate it.
13) A Different Netflix Phenomenon
While unlikely, Netflix could get three nominations. The problem is, I don’t see it coming from any of their crop of big hits, like One Piece, Avatar: The Last Airbender, or Dead Boy Detectives. the gentleman is supposedly trying for a misguided comedy series nomination. If it were here, it might get Netflix three in the same category. We’ll see.
