Debate Magazine

Retailers Ring Alarm Bells on Christmas Sales

By Eowyn @DrEowyn

Despite cheaper oil prices - which we can attribute to OPEC's determination, led by Saudi Arabia (to whose king Obama had bowed), to destroy the U.S. oil (fracking) industry - Americans are not spending .

Retailers ring alarm bells on Christmas sales

That's because many Americans can read the troubling economic signs, in America and the world, that all is not well. As a result, despite the rah-rah boasts by the Obama regime and the lapdog media about a "recovering" economy and fictive job growth, consumer confidence in U.S. economy actually went down sharply in November, just in time for Black Friday marking the beginning of the "holiday" season sales. (See " Black Friday sales 10% less than last year ")

Lisa Beilfuss reports for the , Nov. 25, 2015,

Retailers are ringing bells as they head into the holiday shopping season-alarm bells, in many cases.

"Corporate earnings from big apparel retailers have been shockingly bad," say economists at BNP Paribas. Some have reported inventory backups that suggest demand is slowing, [...]

Retailers' warnings have coincided with weak retail sales in the government's official figures, confirming a broader slowdown in the sector despite cheap gasoline, strong job growth [what "strong job growth"? -Eowyn] and early signs of faster wage growth. Retail sales have largely stalled in recent months, extending the lackluster streak this year. Americans have curbed discretionary spending lately on items like electronics and appliances, and in its most recent report the Commerce Department said shoppers more than halved their spending at retailers in November from a year earlier.

That pullback is showing up in corporate earnings reports and it's prompting downbeat forecasts for the holiday quarter. Department stores including Retailers across the spectrum have been stung by lower spending, from luxury jeweler Nordstrom Inc. and Macy's Inc. warned this month of an unexpected slowdown in spending at their stores, while specialty shops including Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. and Lululemon Inc. reported worrisome inventory levels as shoppers take less from the shelves. Tiffany & Co. to Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

In fact, the signs are that the U.S. and the global economy are entering another recession (source: ).

Here are the U.S. signs:

  • US manufacturing sector is already in recession : The direction the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index moves has been a nearly perfect predictor of the GDP, and GDP is the measure by which economists determine if an economy is in expansion (growth) or contraction (recession). In November, the ISM index declined to 48.59.The last time the ISM index hit this level was during the pit of the Great Recession in 2009.
  • Shipping companies, railroads and trucking companies are all in serious decline.
  • US Dept. of Agriculture has forecast that farm incomes will decline 38% this year.
  • US stock market now rides on only 10 stocks.
  • Hedge funds are tanking.

The global signs of a recession are even worse:

  • Energy (oil) and commodity prices continue to crash.
  • Major economies are already in recession , including Japan, Canada, Australia, Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Greece.
  • Global economic trade is collapsing:
    • Down 8.4% in 2015, and the rate of decline is getting steeper.
    • German exports were down 18% for the year; US exports, down 10%.
    • The Baltic Dry Index, which monitors shipping costs, has dropped from 809 to 628 in just one month. The index is an indicator of the global economy because shipping costs go down as demand goes down. Shipping giant Maersk says that shipping indicates the global economy is actually doing worse than most economic projections indicate.
  • Europe's refugee crisis: Already teetering on recession, with a 10% unemployment rate, Europe is trying to absorb millions of impoverished refugees.
  • Islamic (ISIS) terrorism is increasing , which creates a high security cost to the already troubled economies of Europe and the U.S.
Retailers ring alarm bells on Christmas sales

Meanwhile, once again, Obama and Co. are about to fly off to spend Christmas and New Year in balmy Honolulu, at a cost of $8 million to taxpayers in transportation costs alone.

Reportedly, as in the past 7 years, one of the requirements of the First Couples' multi-million dollar vacation rental in Honolulu is NO Christmas decorations. (Source: )

H/t FOTM 's Glenn47

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