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Financial Survival

Tonight’s GOP Debates

The Washington Examiner (“GOP field seeks to get out of Trump’s shadow in debate”) reports:

“A diminished but still confident crowd of Republican contenders takes the stage for the second televised debate here tonight looking to re-energize their campaigns and reset the terms of the 2016 contest.

“Perhaps the most distinguished GOP field of White House hopefuls in a generation was overshadowed and overtaken this summer by political outsiders who have never held (and in some cases, run) for office. New York businessman/entertainer Donald Trump continues to lead in nearly every state and national poll, with retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson nipping at his heels. Former technology executive Carly Fiorina also vaulted into contention since the first televised debate in August.

“That ups the stakes for the eight other Republicans who were invited to participate in CNN’s prime time debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in this suburb just north of Los Angeles. For some, it’s a matter of using their camera time to increase their name recognition among a GOP electorate that is still largely doesn’t know who they are. For others with higher initial expectations, the event could be a crucial turning point.

There’ll be two debates tonight.  The first “pre-debate” will start at 5PM central time and will include four “not-ready-for-primetime” candidates.

The second, “primetime” debate will be among the top 11 candidates and will begin at 7PM central time.

How many of tonight’s primetime candidates will be attacking The Donald?  Will Trump be “carpet-bombed” by the other candidates?  Can Trump withstand a concerted attack from some or all of the other 8 prime-time candidates?  Will Trump say something so stupid that his poll numbers begin to slide?  Or will Trump come off even stronger?

What about Ben Carson?  He shouldn’t be attacked tonight (except, maybe, by Trump).  Will he gain in the polls, hold his own, or fall?

How many of tonight’s candidates who fail to inspire the crowd will drop out of the primaries after tonight’s debates are over?  Three?  Four?  Eight?  Any?

Is it too early to drop out?  Should each candidate persevere on the odd chance that one or more of the front-runners may do something so self-destructive that they are eliminated and leave the race open to some “dark horse” candidate?

Or should some of them simply face reality and bail-out if they don’t succeed significantly in tonight’s debate?

One thing for sure.  Tonight’s debate may be more than interesting.

Trump has shown the way.

The usual, calculated, political speeches and opinions won’t work in this year’s elections.  If you want to win, you must say something that’s bold, candid, passionate, and dear to some people’s hearts and outrageous to others.  Any candidate who wants to win must risk telling the truth. They must increasingly be more than “candidates”–they must become whistle-blowers.

Tonight’s debate will be characterized by powerful, winner-takes-all statements by several candidates trying to match Mr. Trump’s bold candor.

Some of the candidate may say something that resonates with the audience.  Some of the candidates may be destroyed if their own brazen candor crosses the line into idiocy.

But, insofar as we have politicians who find themselves increasingly compelled to not only tell, but shout, the truth, tonight could easily be an extraordinary moment in American politics. I think you’re going to see candidates falling all over each other as they try to tell bigger and better truths.  If so, tonight’s debates might mark the beginning of the end for the current house of lies that sits in Washington DC.  I think that house of lies is about to shake, rattle, roll and perhaps begin to collapse.

Yea, Though I Walk Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death 

Conservative Byte published an article “U.S. Secret Service Has Dire Warning For Pope” which reads in part:

“Members of the president’s Secret Service detail have confided to WND concern that they cannot adequately protect Pope Francis in the United States under current plans that include allowing the pope to ride through crowds next week in Washington and New York in an open vehicle.

“One Secret Service source noted Francis is “a pope who wants to be seen by the people.”

“He wants to mingle with the crowd, kiss the babies and be accessible to the sick and elderly,” the source said. “With what Vatican security is demanding we do politically, protecting the pope in the U.S. visit is going to be a nightmare.”

There’s something peculiar about a Pope who travels around in the open, exposing himself to the public . . . and to potential assassins.  Perhaps this Pope has extraordinary faith that he will be protected by God.  Perhaps he really does “fear no evil.” I hope so.

But there’s something about cavalierly exposing himself to the public and to potential assassins that perversely reminds me of Revelation 13:3 which reads:

“One of the heads of the beast seemed to have had a fatal wound, but the fatal wound had been healed. The whole world was filled with wonder and followed the beast.”

GATA Headline

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) recently published an article under the headline:  “Are monetary metals futures markets legitimate anymore? Are any markets?”

GATA is asking if there are any markets in the world that aren’t manipulated.

Good question.

I would ask if any “market” that’s manipulated is really a “market”?  Or is it a scheme, scam, fraud, or illusion, etc.?

What’s the proper name for a “market” that’s manipulated?

Silver Bullets, Silver Bombs

Jesse’s Café Americain published an article entitled, “‘Claims Per Deliverable Ounce’ Likely Soars to over 200:1 as JPM Pulls Another Large Tranche”.  Most of that article focused on the gold market, but its last two paragraphs commented on silver:

“I have included the latest silver Comex chart as well.   There seems to be a steady bleed in the [silver] inventories, and one huge difference is that with silver there is no great central pool of it to cover short term gaps in the physical markets through leasing as there is with gold.

“So, I will keep an eye on silver, because the premiums there are acting more oddly on the retail level than gold is, and its market structure is such that a festering problem can become a big and obtrusive problem rather quickly, and the central banks would be in a poor position to do anything about it.”

Because there’s still a massive supply of gold, The Powers That Be can still use paper gold to lie about the price and supply of physical gold.

However, the reality of the limited supply of physical silver will soon prevent any more reliance on shorting paper silver to suppress the price of physical silver.

It’s ironic that, by shorting paper-silver for the purpose of supporting the fiat dollar an suppressing the price of physical silver, The Powers That Be have created an unquenchable demand for physical silver.  That demand has nearly exhausted the thin supply of silver and laid the foundation for rising prices in physical silver.  This price rise for physical silver can be seen in the “premiums” over spot price of paper silver that are currently being paid to purchase physical silver.

It’s conceivable that a primary reason for the continuing suppression in the prices of silver is not simply to support the perceived value of paper dollars, but may be to protect the corporate and banking entities that have already shorted paper silver on the CME and COMEX.  If the price of physical silver goes up, those entities that have shorted paper silver may be bankrupted.

But, the price of physical silver is already going up as seen in:

1) the higher premiums charged on silver coins (coins containing $15 spot price for paper silver are being sold for $20 each);

2) the diminished supply of physical silver (it can take two or three more weeks to deliver physical silver today that it did just a few months ago); and

3) the US Mint’s refusal or inability to coin and sell more silver eagles.

If you own physical silver, and you aren’t desperate for cash to pay for your daughter’s braces or a new car, how much would you charge today to sell your physical silver?  Market price?  $15/ounce?  $20 (bullion coins with $5 premiums)?  Or would you hold onto to your silver until its price rose to . . . what? . . . $25/ounce?  $50/ounce?

I have a little silver.  I prefer gold.  But, unless I were desperate, I wouldn’t consider selling my silver for less than $50/ounce.  Even at $50/ounce, I think I’d probably be making a stupid mistake.

I think that silver will rise to at least $100/ounce within 3 years, and possibly much, much sooner.  I’d have to be crazy to sell my silver now for $15 to $20/ounce.

What we’re really seeing in the conflict between irrationally-low prices for paper silver prices, rising demand for physical silver and rising premiums paid on physical silver is the beginning of a significant divergence between the falling prices of paper silver and rising prices of physical silver.  That divergence signals that the days of markets being manipulated by paper silver are ending.

The markets for paper silver may be able to drop the price to $10 an ounce.  Do I care?  No.  I don’t buy paper silver.  I think that physical silver is, right now, worth at least $25/ounce.  They can drop the price of paper silver to a nickel an ounce and it still has no bearing on the price of real, physical silver.

•  The virtually-exhausted physical silver inventories and irrationally-low paper silver prices have created an unquenchable demand for physical silver that, increasingly, can’t be met at the paper spot price of $15/ounce.

The conflict between low paper prices and rising physical silver prices will quite possibly provide a trigger that could:

1) cause the price of physical silver to soar;

2) crash CME and COMEX paper metals markets; and

3) perhaps even precipitate a general crash the world’s stock and bond markets.

I’m beginning to suspect that physical silver may be the critical commodity.  The existing physical inventory is virtually exhausted.  The US Mint and others are unwilling or unable to provide enough physical silver to coin and sell more silver eagles and/or other silver coins.

The only way to increase physical silver inventories enough to meet market demand for physical silver is to increase prices of both physical and paper silver enough to make more people willing to sell their physical silver.

But if the prices of both physical and paper silver rise enough to increase the available supply of physical silver, the investors who’ve shorted paper silver will be less able to afford to meet their obligations.  In fact, many of those who’ve shorted paper silver might default or even go bankrupt.

A—perhaps the—principle means of suppressing the prices of silver and gold has been to allow speculators to short the paper metals.  But if the only way to induce more people to sell physical silver into the market is to raise both physical and paper silver prices, it’s not only true that many of those who’ve shorted silver are going to go bankrupt—it’s also true that the principle mechanism of suppressing physical silver’s price (that is, by shorting paper silver) will fail.

What happens then?

Being forced to raise the price of paper silver to increase the supply of physical silver, will not only jeopardize those speculators and institutions who’ve shorted paper silver, it will jeopardize and destroy much of the silver price suppression scheme.

Implication?

No matter what The Powers That Be do, the price of physical silver is about to go dramatically higher.  They can’t increase the supply without raising the price.  They can’t diminish demand without raising the price.  Once the prices of physical and paper silver start rising, the paper-silver price suppression scheme (that’s worked for at least a decade) will fail and possibly bankrupt those institutions that’ve been shorting silver.  Without the paper silver suppression scheme, silver prices will rise even higher and faster.

Gold will not lead because the current supply of gold is not yet exhausted.

But, once the price of physical silver starts to rise and the paper silver suppression scheme begins to fail, the paper-gold suppression scheme will also fail and the price of physical gold will follow silver’s lead.

Given that the physical silver inventory is virtually exhausted, and The Powers that Be have nearly lost their capacity to lie about silver, I think we’re getting very close to the onset of a dramatic upward trend in the prices of silver and then, gold.