Pennsylvania's House District 18 is normally a very Republican district. Donald Trump carried it by 20 points in 2016 -- and Republican House candidates have for several elections carried it by a similar margin.But enthusiasm by Democrats had the race polling much closer than that, so Trump made a special trip to the district to lend his support to the Republican candidate (Rick Saccone). He thought his visit would be what was needed to push that Republican to a win. Trump even told his supporters in the district that Saccone would easily win.
That didn't happen. Democrats had a good candidate in Conor Lamb (pictured), and the results last night were extremely close. As I write this, Lamb leads by 579 votes (113,111 for Lamb -- 112,532 for Saccone). There are about 1400 absentee ballots still to be counted. Saccone would need to get most of those absentee ballots, which are out in red counties -- but he has not been doing that well tonight and absentee ballots tend to favor Democrats more than election day ballots.
It looks like Lamb might actually squeak out a win in this very red district (although a recount is very likely), and that would be a major embarrassment for Trump (who has already bombed out once by supporting Roy Moore in Alabama). Of course, knowing Trump, he will just claim that Saccone was a weak candidate if he loses -- and if he somehow wins, Trump will claim all the credit.
But the truth of the matter is that Trump has no coattails, and it is doubtful he could actually help any Republican anywhere to win. I'm wondering after tonight if any Republican will even want Trump to come to their district to campaign.
I will update the results when the final absentee ballots are counted.
